"At 2:24 p.m., Mr. Trump, sitting alone, posted a tweet attacking Mr. Pence and exacerbating the riot. . . . A minute later, the U.S. Secret Service was forced to evacuate Pence to a secure location in the Capitol. . When a White House adviser learned of the incident, he rushed to the restaurant and informed Mr. Trump, who responded: “So what? "
This is an excerpt from Special Counsel Jack Smith's recently released report on the January 6, 2021 storming of the U.S. Capitol. Many supporters of Donald Trump would consider recounting the report — just as Trump was sworn in for a second term in office — as irrelevant. They believe the American people have already made their decision when they vote in November. The Democrats campaigned on the idea that Trump threatens democracy. Still, Trump had a clear victory.
This raises an interesting question. Why isn’t “democracy in danger” a winning argument?
One theory is that voters simply don't care that much. A poll conducted before the presidential vote showed that 76% of Americans believe American democracy is in danger. But only 7% believe democracy is the most important issue in the election.
While most Republicans and Democrats agree that American democracy is under threat, they appear to have very different views on where the threat comes from. For the Democrats, the threat is Trump; For Republicans, it’s “woke” elite censorship.
This disagreement highlights an important distinction I heard the Indian academic Pratap Bhanu Mehta make in a recent lecture at the London School of Economics. Mehta argues that there are two competing understandings of the term “democracy” in contemporary politics. The first views democracy as a method—a way of resolving disputes or conflicting values. The second view sees it as a way to empower citizens—the will of the people.
As Mehta sees it, “Democracy requires both values and empowerment.” But when voters feel that the political system hinders rather than empowers them, they can abandon liberal values in favor of strongmen who promise to solve problems. Then emerged an illiberal version of “democracy” that attacked, in the name of the people, the checks and balances essential to liberal democracy.
This seems to be what is happening in America. A poll last week found that two-thirds of Democrats and 80% of Republicans believe the government serves themselves and those in power over ordinary people. Most people distrust Congress and the media.
Trump came to power by promising to be a strongman leader who would break the power of corrupt elites and “make America great again.” He has repeatedly claimed that the U.S. system is "rigged" and controlled by a "deep state" that tortures ordinary Americans. In 2016, Trump stated at the Republican National Convention that the American system allows "strong men to beat people who cannot defend themselves" and claimed that "I alone can solve this problem."
During his recent campaign, Trump described all court cases against him as evidence of a deep state conspiracy. He promised Americans who were also being persecuted, "I am your retribution."
In certain places and at certain times, strongman rule and illiberal democracy may prevail. In El Salvador, President Nayib Bukele has suspended basic rights, imprisoned 83,000 people under an emergency law, sent troops into Congress and been accused of allowing torture, murder and enforced disappearances. But crime in El Salvador dropped significantly, and Bukele won re-election in a landslide.
The El Salvadoran leader succinctly summed up the tenets of illiberal democracy in his speech to the United Nations: "Some say we imprisoned thousands, but in fact we liberated millions." Bukele, who is largely supported by Trump praise from critics, including Elon Musk and Tucker Carlson.
As Trump takes office, one development that may be worth watching is whether the incoming US president will follow Bukele or Hungarian President Viktor Orban and declare a state of emergency in order to suspend the normal operation of the law. If Trump seeks emergency powers, liberals will sound the alarm. But they should be prepared for the possibility that many ordinary Americans, like the average Salvadorean or Hungarian, might agree.
If supporters of liberal democracy want to win political battles, anger and resistance alone are not enough. They must defeat the arguments of strongman leaders and illiberal Democrats.
President Biden belatedly began the process in his farewell address at the White House, when he warned that the United States was being ruled by oligarchs. Liberals must also demonstrate that strongman rulers tend to empower themselves and their cronies rather than empowering the people. Corruption is an almost inevitable outcome.
In the coming months and years, Trump’s opponents will have to relentlessly articulate the consequences of oligarchic power and strongman rule for ordinary Americans. There can be a lot of corruption and self-dealing issues.
If Trump’s opponents can make their case while protecting the integrity of the electoral system, liberal democracy can still ultimately prevail.
gideon.rachman@ft.com