According to the USDA, technically tomatoes are one of the most expensive vegetables. Among the fresh produce purchased from foreign countries in the country, tomatoes usually lag behind avocados.

Now, the trade is under jeopardy as the Trump administration has resumed three-year-old efforts to restrict imports.

As economists studying global trade issues affecting agricultural products and processed foods, we evaluate the benefits of imported tomatoes and other products for consumers and businesses. Fresh tomato imports ensure year-round supply to consumers, thus making a significant contribution to the U.S. economy by generating billions of dollars in sales and supporting thousands of jobs, and promoting competitive prices that benefit consumers and businesses.

New import restrictions could put all of this at risk, as domestic production cannot meet national needs. For tomatoes like steel and other products, efforts to reverse trade imbalances can reduce consumer satisfaction and potentially disrupt more jobs and economic activity than they create.

Launch a dumping investigation

This quarrel over tomatoes began in the 1990s.

At the time, the unprecedented growth in imports of tomatoes from Mexico prompted U.S. producers to ask the Clinton administration to investigate whether to sell them at unfair prices. If this is the case, it will violate the rules of the World Trade Organization and the U.S. trade policy.

The United States conducted an anti-provisional investigation, conducted by the Department of Commerce and the U.S. International Trade Commission. The task of these agencies is to see whether imported goods are sold in the United States at unfair market value - the definition of dumping.

Dumping will harm domestic producers by suppressing local prices to compete with imports, causing financial troubles. Anti-temporary duty is essentially a tariff.

The Commerce Department ruled against Mexican producers and found that they had been involved in the dumping, but reached an agreement with them. Mexican tomato exporters agreed to set a minimum price, resulting in the U.S. cancelling the investigation. Over the years, the United States and Mexico subsequently signed a series of moratoriums.

The first was implemented in 1996, and the most recent one came into effect during President Donald Trump’s presidency, after his administration threatened to impose a 17.5% tomato tariff.

Squeeze tomato pause agreement

But in April 2025, the Ministry of Commerce announced that it would withdraw from the latest Tomato suspension agreement. The Trump administration plans to impose anti-temporary tariffs on fresh tomatoes imported from Mexico starting in July.

At this stage, it is not obvious whether U.S. importers and consumers bear such tariffs, or the Mexican tomato exporters will absorb this cost.

The move should benefit fresh tomato producers in the U.S. – most of them in Florida, with smaller numbers in California. However, tariffs could harm agricultural product distributors, wholesalers and retailers, as well as U.S. consumers.

In the United States, people have become accustomed to buying fresh tomatoes to throw in their salads and stuffed sandwiches year-round, although in most parts of the country you can only harvest field-grown tomatoes during the warmest months of the year.

Focus on fresh tomatoes only

This dispute does not involve all tomato and tomato products Americans eat.

The production of American tomatoes is divided into two main categories. Fresh tomatoes are usually purchased in the fresh produce section of the supermarket and are chopped or sliced. This dispute is about those tomatoes.

The other is processed tomatoes, which the company uses to make tomato paste, canned or stewed tomatoes and tomato paste. California leads the country's handling of tomato production. Unlike fresh tomatoes (the United States imports far more than fresh tomatoes produced or exported, the United States is actually running a trade surplus in processed tomato products.

In January 1994, when the North American Free Trade Agreement was implemented, the production of fresh tomatoes in the United States was more than four times that of imported fresh tomatoes: 3.7 billion pounds (1.7 million tons) were produced, second only to 870 million pounds (4 billion tons) of imports.

Since then, domestic production has been steadily declining while imports have increased. Fresh tomatoes imported now are twice as large: 2.2 billion pounds (1 million tons) were planted in the United States in 2023, while "imported" was 4.4 billion pounds (20 million tons).

This is because Americans eat more than ever: nearly 20 pounds (9 kg) per capita in 2023.

The influx did not significantly affect the price

In 2024, fresh tomato imports totaled US$3.6 billion, while Mexico had US$3.1 billion. This is a 367% increase since the NAFTA came into effect and has been adjusted to inflation.

Given that many products are cheaper to produce in Mexico, especially in fresh produce where labor costs are less than half the cost of labor, you might think that this arrangement keeps the U.S. fresh tomato prices low. But there is little evidence to support this. Instead, the opposite situation seems to be true.

In 1995, the price of Mexican tomatoes paid by U.S. importers was 31 cents per pound. Since then, import prices have steadily risen to 74 cents per pound in 2024. They usually exceed the prices paid to American farmers and keep up with the overall rise in food prices over the past three decades.

While restricting imports of Mexican tomatoes may make it easier for them to raise prices to benefit our tomato producers, there are other factors to consider. Imports play a crucial role in promoting economic activities and creating jobs. According to a recent study, these imports have had a total economic impact of more than $8 billion.

The additional $5 billion comes from all value-added activities with the acquisition of production from the border to consumers. This overall economic impact supports approximately 47,000 U.S. jobs related to tomato storage, distribution, wholesale and retail.

We expect that the anti-temporary duty of imported fresh tomatoes can increase prices and reduce the number of fresh tomatoes that Americans can buy. This will also narrow some economic impacts and eliminate some work tomato boom.