As President Donald Trump's trade war collided with existing forecasts of price pressure, coolant shortages and anxiety, many consumers will pay more for air conditioning this summer, which will drive to boost utility bills.

"It's a sad moment when a new HVAC system is needed," said Scott Shelton, owner of Charlotte Comfort Systems, North Carolina.

Heating, ventilation and air conditioning contractors say they have been planning higher costs since the post-grocery recovery, from labor and raw materials to newly authorized refrigerants, all of which are factors. As supply chains penetrate deep into countries facing new tariffs, HVAC said it is impossible to avoid passing at least some of the higher costs to customers.

Sheldon estimates that his expenses have increased by 80% since the pandemic.

"It will be more of the middle class and middle class that I've seen in the 38 years of experience in this industry," he said.

U.S. manufacturers' fees for HVAC and refrigeration equipment remained near record highs hit last summer, with some contractors expecting his taxes to raise it before Trump won reelection.

Aydin Mehr said the cost of heating and cooling in Denver was $1,000 in March, saying: "The current price is $1,100," he said. “In September, the same thing will cost $1,300 to $1,400.”

For many families, the expected squeeze bill is added. The National Association of Energy Assistance Directors (NEADA) said Thursday that U.S. residential electricity costs are expected to be $784 this summer, up 6.2% since last season, the highest level in 12 years. Oklahoma City, San Antonio, Austin, Houston and Dallas have already baked the early heat wave this week.

Mehr expressed concerns about this summer. "We stocked wildly to keep our prices as long as possible, but his stocks "have dropped rapidly."

Some top air conditioners are responding to the Trump administration’s reinvestment drive, with airlines announced a $1 billion five-year investment on Tuesday to expand domestic production. Analysts say the HVAC sector is in a relatively well position and can handle tariffs, including steel and aluminum. But the industry still relies heavily on overseas suppliers, with contractors saying many U.S. importers are already curbing goods and uncertainty about tariffs going on.

According to economic complexity observations, the United States imported more than $15 billion worth of air conditioners last year, about five times the amount it exported. Mexico and China are currently facing double-digit blanket tariffs – stocks with the largest U.S. AC import spending, with Mexico at 50% and China at 19%. Analysts estimate that less than half of Mexico-made HVAC equipment is in line with the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement, and Trump in his first term led to the promotion of some Mexican and Canadian goods in his second 25% tariff.

Many suppliers that usually purchase on a 90-day schedule have stopped ordering, when the U.S. and China agreed on Monday to stop most of the tariffs within 90 days.

"In the best case scenario, we will have a common type of stuff, and they will have to wait a few months to get their stuff," he predicted.

A key factor is the industry-wide shortage of R-454B, a more environmentally friendly coolant that regulators began requesting in January, a bipartisan measure signed by Trump in 2020. Mehr expects a major manufacturer to use the R-454B's new hot water pump in the mid-term, but they are not using the R-454B everywhere because it is not gradually imported into part of China, which can advance from China.

He foresees a shortage of refrigerant until mid-June or early July, when the budget provided to intermediate AC units may begin to decrease.

These concerns may not be wasted nationwide or at all, but as manufacturers raise prices, the cooling liquid tightening has raised costs and delayed installation. Appliance giant Honeywell announced a 42% surcharge for the R-454B last month, citing "increased costs and cumulative effects of raw materials", amid strong demand.

Some HVAC contractors even accuse manufacturers of using supply chains to disrupt prices. Barton James, president and CEO of U.S. air conditioner contractor, said cooling system manufacturers announced tariff-related price increases. “The industry as a whole continues to test the waters at the point of breaking consumers. At the moment, we have not found it yet.”

The Air Conditioning, Heating and Refrigeration Academy called the allegation “offensive.” Speaker Francis Dietz said in a statement that members of the Manufacturing Trade Group had their own concerns about the uncertainty brought about by the “again/closing tariffs.” “Manufacturers are not using tariffs as a cover for raising prices, but are trying their best to minimize economic impact” and make the product affordable.

Home Depot acknowledged the "mobile environment" but declined to comment on a specific product category, and Lowe did not respond to a request for comment. Both home improvement giants report earnings next week.

A White House spokesman did not respond to a request for comment.

Meteorologists expect temperatures above average this summer, after becoming the hottest summer in 2024.

The National Weather Service predicts too much heat, which can be from Maryland to Maine, to Oregon to Texas. Over the next three months, parts of Utah, Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico are most likely to see hotter days than average. The number of heat-related deaths in the United States has more than doubled in recent decades as climate change becomes more frequent, researchers say.

This year, federal aid may reduce helping families keep their homes in safe temperatures.

Shortly after placing all employees of the low-income household energy assistance program, Trump proposed a budget to cut the program's $4 billion funding to zero. Founded in 1981, Liheap aims to help struggling families cover home heating and later covers cooling costs including alternating devices. But what advocates call long-term funding shortages and a surge in demand for summer relief have made it nervous.

NEADA represents the estimated households facing owed debts now owed a $21 billion cumulative amount in four years, a maximum in four years, in the case of Liheap aid.

"Without affordable cooling, many people will be at risk of stroke and other health effects associated with rising temperatures," NEADA executive director Mark Wolfe said in a statement.