'Their human resources are unlimited': Russia's progress heralds bleak spring for Ukrainians Ukraine

IIn an underground command post in eastern Ukraine, a Ukrainian soldier stares at a map. Russian positions are marked in red. A year ago, enemy forces were at least 35 miles (60 kilometers) from the administrative border between the Donetsk Oblast and the neighboring Dnipropetrovsk region. Now they were on their doorstep: only five miles away.

"The situation is very bad," Valery, whose call sign is "Ovis," admitted as he sat in front of a row of screens showing live footage from the battlefield. Reconnaissance drones targeted Russian positions beneath the snowy treeline. "If the rat moves, we can see it," he said. His 110th Brigade spent a year and a half defending the eastern city of Avdievka. The city fell in February 2024 after a long and brutal siege.

Valery Owes (centre) at his command post near the front line. Photograph: Alessio Mamo/The Guardian

Subsequently, Russian troops occupied the brigade's next position in the town of Cheretnye, west of Avdiivka, during the summer. In the months since, Vladimir Putin's ground troops have been advancing at their fastest pace since 2022, through icy slag heaps, mining towns and villages. Their tactics are familiar: destroy and capture.

"We've seen a huge surge in Russia. They've never moved so fast before," Valery said. "They suffered terrible losses. But their human resources were unlimited." His mechanized troops, equipped with Soviet-era 152mm howitzers, were defending the southern town of Velika Novosilka as the Russians attempted Surround it.

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Over the past few days, Russian reconnaissance teams have infiltrated the nearby settlements of Neskuchne and Novyi Komar. The fierce fighting intensified. "During the day we attacked them with artillery. At night, foxes and dogs would eat their bodies," said Sergeant Major Andrii Hrebeniuk, adding: "We found spirits from the Russian prisoners Drugs. They take drugs to reduce fear before a kamikaze mission.”

Putin's strategic goal is to completely control the Donetsk region and "annex" it in 2022. He also claims sovereignty over the Ukrainian provinces of Luhansk, Zaporozhye and Kherson. Russian troops are closing in on the Dnepropetrovsk region for the first time in more than a decade since Moscow annexed Crimea and secretly took over the eastern Donbass region in 2014.

Andrii Hrebeniuk, commander of the 110th Mechanized Brigade Infantry Battalion, fights in the Ukrainian town of Velyka Novosilka. Photograph: Alessio Mamo/The Guardian

Currently, Russian troops have not attempted to attack the strategic city of Pokrovsk. Instead, they bypassed it and headed south through small villages, aiming to cut off Ukraine's supply routes. The Russians had fire control on the road to Kostyantinivka and the main northern garrison cities of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk. In the other direction, they also cut off the T0406 highway, which connects the towns of Pokrovsk and Mezova.

Merova is located in Dnepropetrovsk Oblast, close to the administrative border of Donetsk. Ukrainian soldiers stopped to take photos in front of colorful border markers on the roadside, next to blue and yellow flags, regimental emblems and a white statue of the Virgin Mary in military fleece. "We believe in our armed forces. The enemy will not come here," one soldier named Natalia declared optimistically as she posed for a selfie.

Indeed, it seems unlikely that Russian tanks would be stationed at the border between the two states. "They will not stop. If they succeed, they will expand their attack area. If it were me, I would continue." Hrebeniuk predicted. He said Ukraine urgently needs more Western military help: armored vehicles, artillery shells, aviation. He warned that if the country did not understand this, the Russians would eventually threaten Dnipro, the country's fourth-largest city and main center of defense industry.

Yevhen Khrypun is the editor of the newspaper "Mezhivskyi Merydian", which is located in the town of Mezova, Dnepropetrovsk Oblast, close to the front line. Russian troops are 20 kilometers away. Photograph: Alessio Mamo/The Guardian

Reaching the border would be a major blow to Kyiv and pose an existential threat to Mezova and other once-peaceful settlements along the line. Authorities have not yet issued evacuation orders for families with school-age children in the area of ​​20,000 people, including 5,000 people displaced by fighting in the Far East, but some residents have already left as the Russians approach.

Yevhen Khrypun, editor of the local Mezhivskyi Merydian newspaper, said two of his colleagues had left in recent months, leaving only him and a reporter. This headline has appeared every week since 1930. I hope we can celebrate our 95th anniversary in May,” he said, adding: “We don’t want to be the next Pokrovsk. "

Mayor Volodymyr Zrazhevsky said he calmed anxious residents during the holiday season. He visited the town's Christmas tree with his four-year-old grandson Lev. "The voice inside me told me the Russians would stop. Everything would be fine," he said. "There will be a buffer zone. Maybe we will find ourselves in a gray area with international peacekeepers. I don't want to think about other scenarios."

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The mayor of Myrova, Volodymyr Zrazhevsky, attended the funeral of local Ukrainian soldier Andriy Zakhary, who died, He died at the age of 30. Photograph: Alessio Mamo/The Guardian

Donald Trump's return to the White House next week has raised hopes that a negotiated solution to the war is imminent. However, Putin has shown little interest in reaching a deal as his troops make rapid progress. European capitals are discussing sending a peacekeeping force, but if the force does arrive it may be too late to save Mezowa.

The town has not yet suffered the fate of Bakhmut or other urban areas that were leveled by Russian glide bombs, but it has experienced tragedy and loss. The mayor and editor attended the town's 54th military funeral on Saturday. The latest local soldier to die in the fighting was 30-year-old Andriy Zakhary. He disappeared near Ocheretain in November 2023, but his remains were only recently identified.

A white truck carrying Zachary's coffin drove to his home in the village of Novotreitsk. Residents knelt and threw red carnations into their roads. Zachary's mother, Svetlana, appeared on the muddy street and howled. A priest prayed while relatives supported Svetlana, who was shaking. A drizzle fell as mourners followed the funeral procession to the village cemetery.

The procession at Zachary's funeral on Saturday. Photograph: Alessio Mamo/The Guardian

Standing in front of the newly dug grave, the mayor praised Zachary as a hero who gave his life for his country. "The hero lives forever in our memory," he said. "He believed in our victory." A framed photo with a black sash was placed on his coffin. In the photo, a confident young man stands under a green canopy. Three soldiers saluted. The family threw dirt into the plot. The dog barks. Friends laid blue and yellow wreaths.

Khrypun acknowledged it was a bleak moment in history. The area along the Wovca River was once inhabited by nomadic Scythians. In the mid-16th century, the Zaporizhia Cossacks - the military forerunners of modern Ukraine - settled in the winter village. They farmed, fished and hunted. Russia now threatens to annex the town to its grim old and new empire.

"Yes, the West gave us weapons. But we are fighting alone against the Hitler of the 21st century. We are several times smaller than our neighbors. If Ukraine collapses, Putin will annex other places," the editor said. What does he hope for? He replied: "We raise a toast during the New Year. Our deepest wish is to celebrate the next New Year at home."