America's Western allies are bracing for the return of Donald Trump, still hoping for the best but largely unprepared for a worst-case scenario that could prove chaotic and disorienting.

Trump sent a series of signals on the eve of his inauguration, increasing tariffs on Canada, China and Mexico, vowing to buy (or, if not, invade) Greenland and the Panama Canal, and using his Influence urges Benjamin Netanyahu to accept a ceasefire in Gaza that the Israeli prime minister has boycotted since May.

Meanwhile, his pick for secretary of state, Marco Rubio, gave four and a half hours of evidence before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and, in the breadth of his knowledge and perspective, looked more like Steve Bannon than Steve Bannon. More like James Baker III in his heyday. .

Whether Rubio and the State Department influence foreign policy — beyond other agencies, court darlings and legions of envoys — has become a question in Europe and will depend largely on chief of staff Sue Wells and national security adviser Mike W. Waltz.

Looking for signals among all the noise, distinguishing threats that portend action rather than bargaining rants, and figuring out the rationale for the administration's decisions has kept foreign diplomats in Washington awake at night.

Trump has become more candid, and his modus operandi is unpredictability. For example, he told the Wall Street Journal that he was glad that Chinese President Xi Jinping "respects me because he knows I'm crazy."

Unfortunately, if the madman doesn't occasionally do something truly insane, people's fear of him will subside. For this reason, many expect Trump to begin his administration quickly, trying to unsettle his opponents and prove that his "America First" approach has substance.

On day one, he can't expect to end the war in Ukraine, start mass deportations or impose 25% tariffs around the world in 24 hours, but he is expected to reveal which countries are in his sights, starting with Canada, China and Mexico .

Canadian diplomats, alarmed by the prospect of working alongside China, spent much of last week camped out in Washington trying to listen to Republican senators.

Despite internal differences, Canada has claimed that it will enact level three retaliation measures against US imports worth $150 billion if Trump launches a trade war.

Mexican President Claudia Scheinbaum, who met with Latin American foreign ministers on Friday to map out Trump's common strategy, insisted the country had consular plans in place if mass deportations began.

China has been preparing for retaliation and seeking allies for a year.

Chietigi Bajpaee, a South Asia fellow at Chatham House, predicted that “allies will try appeasement, resilience and retaliation, and middle powers will step up their efforts as they did in (Trump’s) first term. Maintain free trade.”

But in Europe, people are more hostile to Trump than elsewhere, and the foreboding is great. German Economy Minister Robert Habeck pessimistically predicted that US tariffs on the EU would harm German industry. Even a transatlanticist like Friedrich Merz, who is widely predicted to be the next chancellor, believes that EU unity is a prerequisite if the opportunity for a successful relationship is to be exploited.

More generally, European diplomats insist they are not grasping at straws when they suggest the Trump administration's policies may be more nuanced than his rhetoric. In 2016, Trump threatened to impose 30% tariffs on Mexico but ultimately agreed to renegotiate NAFTA. The EU eventually agreed to buy more U.S. liquefied natural gas and soybeans in 2018, avoiding tariffs on cars. A similar offer will be drafted this time.

The transcript of Rubio's Senate confirmation hearing was also seen as a sign that the United States is not planning to pull up the drawbridge. His evidence repeatedly mentioned the US's global role and the importance of cultivating alliances, even admitting a preference for working with Mexico rather than fighting drug cartels.

On Ukraine, he did say the government's official position was that "the war must end" and that this would require territorial concessions from both sides. But Rubio said Ukraine needed to be in a strong bargaining position before a ceasefire could begin, adding that Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine was "unacceptable."

He added: "Putin's goal now is to have maximum leverage so that he can basically neutralize Ukraine, transform it and then do it again in four or five years. I don't think that's an outcome that any of us would like. "When asked about the need for Ukraine to remain militarily neutral, he refused to agree, saying: "Even if the conflict is to end, Ukraine needs to be able to defend itself." A British official said: "This does not sound like a neutral Ukraine. There is no security."

Regarding NATO, Rubio said he supports the Cain-Rubio Act of 2023, which prohibits the US president from withdrawing from NATO without Senate approval. Overall, his demand for Europe to contribute more to its own defense is a refrain that will be all too familiar to any American politician over the past two decades.

Only once did he hint at a greater reshaping of security, when he asked: "Should the role of the United States and NATO in the 21st century be primarily defensive or as a backstop for aggression, with countries in the region assuming greater responsibility" via Contribute more? "

Rubio, known as a China hawk, insisted he did not believe Beijing wanted a military conflict, saying: "The Chinese have basically concluded that the United States is a tired, declining great power. No matter what happens , they are all going to naturally replace us over the next 20 or 30 years. I think they would prefer not to have any trade and/or armed conflict in the meantime because I think they might interrupt what they think is a natural progression."

For example, when seeking to build an alliance against China in the Indo-Pacific region, he said: "It would be a mistake to pick sides now with a Cold War mentality." Overall, he will be with China. The conflict boils down to reducing the economic dependence of the United States and its allies on China.

He also does not advocate a simple withdrawal of troops from the Middle East and refuses to hand over the Syrian Kurds to the Turks, a position that will be welcomed by Europe. Referring to the Syrian Defense Forces, he said: "Abandoning partners who have effectively imprisoned ISIS militants at great sacrifice and threats has implications. One of the reasons we have been able to dismantle ISIS is because they are willing to Putting them in jail poses a huge personal threat."

Even on Iran, he took a nuanced view, arguing that there was one school in Iran that recognized they were "in big trouble and needed an outlet" and another that believed it was best to be free from foreign interference. The solution is to acquire nuclear capabilities. arms.

Rubio unsurprisingly said that the Trump administration would be the most pro-Israel administration in history, but even so he rejected Israel's resumption of control of Gaza, saying: "The real unresolved issue for the Palestinians is Who will rule Gaza in the short term and who will rule Gaza ultimately? Is it the Palestinian Authority or another entity? Because it has to be someone. "

He also agreed with the outgoing Democratic administration that genocide is occurring in Sudan, which means the United States needs to address the United Arab Emirates "for their public support for entities that are committing genocide."

But does Rubio’s opinion matter?

Former Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has warned that there will be only one decision-maker in the new US administration: Donald Trump.

Turnbull suggested that as executive orders pour out of the White House next week - many of them hostile to America's allies - the test will be first resisting bullying and then convincing him there is common ground, as only Trump has ever Ask the question – in business and politics – “What’s in it for me?”