The U.S. economy signed in the first three months of 2025 and raised concerns about recession as President Donald Trump started a possible expensive trade war when he launched a potentially expensive trade war.

According to a Ministry of Commerce report on seasonal factors and inflation adjustments, GDP is at a rate of 0.3% decline in the sum of all goods and services produced from January to March. This is the first quarter of negative growth since the first quarter of 2022.

Economists surveyed by Dow Jones rose 2.4% in the fourth quarter of 2024, but rose 2.4% in the fourth quarter of 2024. But over the past day or so, some Wall Street economists have turned their outlook into negative growth, mainly due to unexpected growth in imports from companies and consumers, which attempted to implement Trump’s resistance in early April.

In fact, imports soared 41.3% in the quarter, due to 50.9% increase in commodities. Imports are subtracted from GDP, so given that the trend may reverse the trend in the subsequent quarter, the contraction of growth may not be viewed as negative. Import volume read more than 5 titles from the title read. Exports grew by 1.8%.

Chris Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS, said: "Perhaps this negative sentiment is due to the rush to introduce imported goods before tariffs rise, but policy advisers simply did not do so.

During this period, consumer spending slowed but remained positive. Personal consumption expenditure increased by 1.8% during the period, the slowest quarterly growth since Q2 2023, up from 4% in the previous quarter.

In addition, private domestic investment surged during this period, up 21.9%, mainly driven by 22.5% of equipment spending, which could also be tariff-driven.

"It's no surprise that GDP took a hit in the first quarter, mainly because of the explosion of trade balance as companies import frantic goods to forward tariffs. The more convincing figure for the future of expansion is consumer spending, but it has grown but is relatively weak.

Stock market futures fell after the report, while fiscal yields rose.

The report provides a cross signal to the Fed ahead of next week's policy meeting. While negative growth may prompt central banks to consider lowering interest rates, inflation may stop policymakers.

The personal consumption expenditure price index is the Fed's preferred inflation measure, with growth rate of 3.6% in the quarter, a sharp increase from the 2.4% increase in the fourth quarter. Core PCE rose 3.5% in addition to food and energy. Fed officials believe core reading is better in the long-term trend.

The related reading is called the Chain Weighted Price Index, which adjusts for changes in consumer behavior and other factors, increasing by 3.7%, well above the 3% estimate.

The markets are still declining at their June meeting, with four actions taken in total by the end of the year, which may indicate that the Fed will prioritize economic growth over inflation.

Also on Wednesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported its employment cost index rose 0.9% in the first quarter, which is in line with expectations.

While the economy is still increasing work and consumers are spending, GDP reports have both increased the danger of a recession and increased the stake in Trump's trading with U.S. trading partners.

The traditional recession rule was for two consecutive negative quarters, although the formal arbitrator was the National Bureau of Economic Research, which used “a significant decline in economic activity, spread throughout the economy and lasted for more than a few months.”

Next Markets will look for the BLS non-agricultural salary account released on Friday. Payroll processing company ADP reported Wednesday that private recruitment increased by only 62,000 in April.