We've been talking to US retailers that don't sell on e-commerce sites, which means they have their own stores, or suppliers from Walmart, Target, and more. These companies are also frightened because many of them have complex supply chains in China and cannot easily move their manufacturing operations to other countries.

As far as we know, retailers usually have inventory, which should last at least the next few months in the U.S. However, if the tariffs don’t drop to acceptable levels soon, it may start to become more noticeable in the summer or early fall, depending on the preparations for individual stores. For example, even if the holiday is seven months, American retailers of Christmas decorations and toys are really worried now. Maybe December is the impact of some American consumers eventually discovering these policies!

Is it possible that Trump will provide tariffs to Amazon, rather than an exception to other retailers? Can he do this without anyone knowing it?

Even if Trump tries to exempt Amazon from tariffs, it will be logically difficult. Amazon’s market has millions of third-party sellers, each running its own business and responsible for bringing the goods to the United States and clearing the customs process. But Trump can help tax breaks, subsidies or other economic benefits for Amazon and other retailers to offset the impact of tariffs. This hasn't happened yet, but Trump administration officials are reportedly discussing the provision of subsidies to American farmers.

What percentage of goods are imported from China on Amazon?

It's hard to say how many Amazon sellers import things from China, but estimates suggest that more than 50% of Amazon's best-selling independent merchants are located in China.

In fact, are there enough custom agents to verify that what is imported from other countries is not actually from China? If so, how would they do it?

Trump’s tariffs will certainly expand U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) capabilities to check the origins of parcels and internal goods. The U.S. Postal Service actually stopped accepting packages from China earlier this year because they were so overwhelmed when Trump initially tried to end the de minimis overnight. Later, his administration delayed policy for several weeks, which gave CBP more time to prepare.

How does the tariff situation affect the suppliers who actually produce products?

China's factories have been hit by tariffs and some are considering firing workers. They all want to move to other markets such as Brazil, Russia and the EU, but the reality is that consumers in these regions simply do not have as much disposable income as Americans. The factories will be able to make up for some of their sales, but these alternative markets will now become too competitive.

Small business owners say they are hurt by tariffs, so who wins here?

Honestly, at least for now, we can think of very few parties that we won here. Even if you want to make it in the United States, you will almost certainly need to import machinery and raw materials from China or another country, which means you will have to pay these new tariffs, too. Maybe a winner is the environment. Higher prices may lead to fewer purchases in people, which may be the moment when consumers begin to reflect on their consumption habits. But if that happens, it will be bad news for the U.S. economy.

What if Chinese goods are sold to third parties (such as Canada) and then transferred to the United States?

This would be an example of tax evasion and is illegal. Traveling through intermediaries in this way is called “transshipment” and it does happen from time to time, but they can be subject to fairly high fines if they catch manufacturers or retailers.