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Sample size of each poller, previous results and model factors in “house effects” (unintentional bias against one party). Research shows that pollsters systematically overestimate the support of the 2019 and 2022 elections, one of the reasons the model estimates that Labor’s main votes are slightly lower than the publication of the poll itself.

In the last week, some published polls have put labor in an effort to comfortably gain a majority of government, even if the main vote is similar to 2022 or even lower.

Mancilo said the alliance is unlikely to win enough seats to form a minority government, let alone win an overall majority, but it pins its hopes on minors to get votes from the workforce and send preferences to the alliance.

"They will have to rely on a country's preference for voting and right-wing parties' rag labels," Mancilo said.

A country has risen in polls in recent months, but this seems to be at the expense of the coalition's main vote. In previous elections, only one country and the United Australian Party have a preference of 62-64% of the alliance. By comparison, 86% of the Greens preferred to work in the last election.

All polls have shown that the coalition’s stance has steadily declined in recent months, mainly due to a decline in its main vote rather than a rise in Labor.

The league first gained a bipartisan first lead in our poll tracker early last year and did start evacuating around November. The leader continued until the New Year, but it gradually disappeared since then.

Since polls can be intermittent and noisy, it is difficult to determine when the league will peak.

Shaun Ratcliff said: “I really noticed the change in February.

“There are weeks out there, you have the Labor Party’s Medicare announcement, the Whyalla announcement and the Reserve Bank’s lower interest rates.

“It feels like they’re in campaign mode, and they’re making all these announcements in the areas they’re clearly studying.

“It all happened very quickly and almost immediately appeared in the polls.”

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By contrast, according to Ratcliff's research, the alliance is less focused on life, housing and health care. "The league is a bit firmly caught. They don't seem to really respond to this messaging. It's going to be in February and March, of course."

The Australian Guardian poll tracker shows that labor surpassed the coalition by the end of March, and shortly afterwards, Alfred Alfred attacked the Queensland coast. This is when Mancilo thinks the game is overturned.

"It's all the collapse of the first vote of the coalition," Mancilo said. "The Labour Party has nothing happened. Recently, a country has increased."

In the early stages of the campaign, pollsters identified many seats worth watching. These include seats in the north and south of Greater Sydney, as well as new seats in the edge of Melbourne, Perth, Lyons, Tasmania, and some seats in and around Brisbane. As the league fights in polls, its path to victory in these suburbs and regional areas has begun to end.

"It looked very good at the beginning of the year (the league)," Ratcliff said. "Our league had a bipartisan priority in the first wave of trackers in early February, which was a three-point swing since the last election.

“Our last wave has lost their battle since the last election.