The Home Office analysis claimed that the number of people arriving in the UK by boat could be attributed to favorable weather and squeezed more people into the boat.

The numbers show that “Red Days” twice as much—when calm conditions exist in the channel, this means that the likelihood of crossing is greater—in the first four months of this year, as in the same period in 2024.

In the year ended April 2025, 47% of the ships crossing the channel had 60 or more people on board, while in the year ended April 2022, 2%.

The Immigration Observatory at Oxford University questioned the Ministry of Interior analysis, saying there is no evidence that weather is the main factor in increasing ships over the long term.

The charity says the analysis overlooks the fact that most people who attempt to come to the UK are found to be legitimate asylum seekers driven by war, famine and climate change.

The analysis has been released as Keir Starmer tries to fight Nigel Farage's Revers UK's growing challenge. Labor officials firmly believe that the increase in irregular immigration will be a key issue in future elections.

More than 1,100 migrants and refugees arrived in the UK on Saturday, with an annual total of 14,812, up 42% during the period last year.

According to data released on Tuesday, there were 60 red days in the first four months of 2025, compared with 27 in the same period in 2024, and 23 in the first part of 2023.

In the first 10 months of the Starmer government, the red dates were 93.5% higher than the red dates in the same period last year. At that time, the arrivals of 25,571 people increased by 34.5% from July 2023 to April 2024 to 34,401 in the 10 months in April 2025.

The numbers show that the number of people traveling for each dinghy has increased. In April 2023, only one ship carried more than 80 people. In April this year, 33 ships carried 80 or more people.

The Metropolitan Office prepares an assessment of the possibility of channel crossing for the internal office. Based on the possibility of activity of the environment and other factors, the assessment is color-coded red, amber or green, including fluctuating heights, surfing conditions on the beach, wind speed and direction, chances of rainfall, and the latest condition trends.

Peter Walsh, a senior researcher at the Immigration Observatory, said: “There is no evidence that weather is a major factor explaining the long-term increase, such as the vessels we have seen in the past eight months.

“It seems unlikely that weather is more than just a short-term limit on small ship junctions.

Enver Solomon, CEO of the Refugee Commission, said: “It is correct to acknowledge that there are more intersections in good weather, but it is also necessary to recognize that law enforcement measures alone have not achieved the expected results so far.

"Many men, women and children are fleeing Sudan, such as Sudan, and war forces them to leave their homes. People don't risk their lives as fragile ships along the channel unless they escape from the horror, but they are more terrifying than they face at sea."

"This government is restoring the grip of the asylum system, which inherits a smuggling enterprise that allows the entire crime to develop, where gangs are able to take advantage of the good weather to increase the speed of transit too long," a spokesperson for the Ministry of Home Affairs said.