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The idea was widely written off as a joke in November when Donald Trump first announced plans to take over Elon Musk's new division in government efficiency. Then, Trump took office and the Governor began a very real stampede through the administration. However, in order to meaningfully reduce federal spending, the Governor was still completely inconspicuous.
Musk initially promised that he would eliminate $2 trillion from the $7 trillion federal budget, then expand his ambitions to $1 trillion, and then turn it $150 billion. Even revised objectives are extremely unlikely.
It is still difficult to accurately measure the budget impact of Musk experiments, but we can first look at Doge's claims. In late February, its website claimed to have achieved a $55 billion annual expenditure reduction. However, its "receipt wall" only details the total amount of $16.5 billion. Half of the number comes from a typo claiming $8 One billion Savings from Terminated $8 million contract. As The New York Times This is far from the only accounting error, the report said. Once the contract is cancelled incorrectly, the three felony charges of the same reform and the charges of contracts that expired decades ago are fixed, with a proven budget saving of just $2 billion.
Doge's website now claims to save $165 billion. However, it still details only a small portion of the supposed clip, and earlier accounting errors have been replaced by new ones. One common hand is to cancel the “package purchase agreement”, which in recipients is equivalent to a line of credit to collect the necessary expenses of the project and then claim to save the entire line of credit instead of what is actually spent (in many cases) (in many cases). Even if the site’s savings have doubled the accuracy of February, annual savings could reach $15 billion, or 0.2% of federal spending.
Fortunately, reliable sources are more reliable than Doge's self-reporter. The best is the monthly accounting of the Ministry of Finance’s expenditures by agency and plan. Any real threshold spending should be reduced, and these budgets should be the same as the results of other White House initiatives, including cutting public health spending and eliminating ongoing efforts by the Agency for International Development and the Department of Education.
These spending data will not skew the Musk project. Total federal spending in February and March was $86 billion (or 7%) higher Adjusted from the same few months a year ago to make scheduled shifts. This spending growth ($500 billion in annual interest rates) is driven by three-quarters of federal spending allocated to Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, Defense, Veterans’ benefits and interest costs. These huge expenses are not followed by Doge's small but controversial targets, such as DEI contracts and politics subscription.
We can see this by looking at the breakdown of the Ministry of Finance’s monthly expenditures. Short-term planned spending may fluctuate significantly, and the ongoing trend may not be entirely obvious within a few months, but early data is still revealing. By far, the highest visibility under the Trump administration may be public health spending and foreign aid. However, even here, these numbers are rounded in the context of the federal budget. Public health spending, previously about $8.2 billion per month, dropped to $7.1 billion in March, was cut by the National Institutes of Health and the Health Resources and Services Administration, which funded state and local health grants to serve vulnerable families.
Monthly spending on targeted diplomatic programs fell from $2.4 billion to $1.4 billion. This includes spending on the Global Health and Child Survival Program, which includes efficient funding for HIV, malaria, tuberculosis and other diseases in less developed countries, falling to half to $400 million a month. Payments for "international organizations and conferences" such as the United Nations have been reduced to zero. USDA spending has fluctuated significantly every month, but overall fell by one-third in the first quarter of 2025.
These cuts have been highly destructive to beneficiaries, contractors and employees and threaten huge long-term harm. However, their total monthly savings are only $2.1 billion. In the Ministry of Education, another shutdown target is still planned to be phased out next year, in addition to spending on post-pandemic funds early on.
The cost reduction of layoffs on federal employees is too small to be displayed in the data. This is not surprising, because even one-quarter of the 2.3 million federal civilian employees will only cut 1% of federal spending. To be fair, in October, there will be more savings when the salary of the 75,000 federal employees acquired is paid out of the book. This should save Washington $10 billion a year, accounting for 0.1% of federal spending — even if that's an overestimate, because Washington will certainly hire contractors to perform at least the work these civil servants have previously handled, the expenses of many contractors, and the costs of many contractors More Compared to employees.
Moving forward, it will become more difficult to determine politically acceptable savings. Trump and Musk have reached their simplest goals that do not directly burden most magazine voters, such as government employees, foreigners, academia, and contract recipients with some kind of DEI component. The latest move to cut down on social security customer service and veterans’ health personnel faces opposition from affected Republican voters. Congress has little interest in passing legislation to approve the executive’s cuts, meaning many of them may turn around in court. This year’s Appropriations Act, which requires seven Senate democratic votes to violate a lawsuit, may continue to fund and authorize the existence of the Department of Education, the U.S. Agency for International Development and traditional public health spending.
By the way, this is good news for Doge. The bad news is that the project seems likely expansion Long-term budget deficit. Over the past decade, cutting IRS enforcement will result in tax evasion and reduce taxes by hundreds of billions of dollars. Dismissal of the Ministry of Education’s staff ensures that the repayment of student loans collected will increase the deficit. The illegally terminated federal employees have been restored to their full repayment of their salaries, and the government has little trouble except for paying attorney fees.
Even if Doge somehow managed to eventually fall into black, the GOP push to expand the 2017 tax break at about $50 billion a year will be completely overwhelmed. Claiming that Washington can no longer pay 0.1% of its budget to provide life-saving treatment to 20 million impoverished Africans, it cannot be taken seriously when the government and Congress prepare to cut taxes and expand other spending by trillions of dollars.
This does not mean that Doge failed. Musk may not follow his unfocused and evolving commitment to eliminate payment errors, balance the entire budget and implement regulatory reforms. But he has successfully given the White House cover to clear and intimidate civil servants, helped Congress demonstrate high tax cuts, rewarded magic voters in revenge on their perceived enemies, and granted himself the ability to access sensitive government data and possibly ensure his company's ongoing government contracts. Of course, the annual budget deficit can still double over the next decade. But if you think Doge is really about cutting costs, you're never going to joke about it.