Israel and Hamas reached an agreement on the release of hostages and a ceasefire, bringing a degree of relief and hope to the region. But the agreement does not bring a certain end to the disastrous Gaza war. It does not guarantee an end to the fighting, the full release of Israeli hostages, or a lasting political solution in Gaza.
For Israelis, joy at the return of some hostages was tempered by concerns about the fate of the rest. The deal provides for a six-week ceasefire during which 33 Israeli hostages will return home - some alive, some buried - in exchange for Israel releasing a larger number of Palestinian prisoners. The second phase of negotiations will then begin, including the return of the remaining 65 hostages in Gaza and the achievement of a lasting ceasefire. The success of these negotiations is just one of the outstanding issues in the current agreement.
Another reason is why there was no agreement a few months ago. The framework appears to be the same as one proposed by President Joe Biden last spring — "but with some nuances," former Israeli cabinet minister and former general Gadi Eisenkot said in a radio interview yesterday. Had both sides agreed to these terms, thousands of Gazans might still be alive and the recent devastation in the northern Gaza Strip could have been avoided. At least eight hostages - including the most famous, Hersh Goldberg-Pohling - and more than 100 Israeli soldiers may have survived.
So why is the deal just now? The most important development in recent days appears to be a new sense of urgency from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Unlike in May, this week he pressured the leaders of two resisting far-right parties in his coalition to accept a hostage deal. Donald Trump is a new element. The president-elect has demanded a hostage deal be reached before taking office, promising there would be a "heavy price" for failing to do so. He sent his own envoy, Steven Witkoff, to Qatar, where indirect negotiations were ongoing. Vitkov traveled to Israel from Qatar on Saturday and insisted on meeting the Israeli prime minister on the afternoon of the Jewish Sabbath - a violation of Israeli protocol and intended to remind Netanyahu who was a vassal and who was a suzerain.
Israeli government and military sources sought to explain the timing of the deal to state media by pointing to the death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar in October. the defeat suffered by its Lebanese ally Hezbollah; and the devastation in northern Gaza. But the report's purpose was primarily to portray the agreement as the result of Israeli military success rather than a dramatic about-face under pressure. Indeed, Hamas, despite being weakened, still manages to sustain a war of attrition.
Meanwhile, Netanyahu's willingness to pursue a deal has undergone a major reversal. Last summer, he reportedly enraged then-Defence Minister Yoav Galante by proposing new conditions that would hamper the ceasefire process. (The dispute was one of the reasons why Netanyahu fired Galante in November.)
The Israeli right, which believes Trump's rants were directed only at Hamas, is appalled. One clue as to what Trump might threaten or promise the prime minister comes from leaks from Netanyahu's meeting with Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich. Smotrich is the leader of the far-right Religious Zionist party and a major patron of West Bank settlements. During the two men's meeting on Sunday, Netanyahu reportedly told Smotrich that "we must not harm our relationship with the Trump administration," explaining that Trump would help the administration design "Judy Asia and Samaria”—an apparent reference to planned bank settlement construction for westward expansion.
The promise did not satisfy Smotrich's party. After a meeting of Knesset members today, the party asked Netanyahu to commit to resuming the war "once the completion of the first phase of the deal." It said this was "a condition for the party to remain in the (ruling) coalition and government". As of this writing, Netanyahu has yet to respond.
While the ultimatum is unlikely to immediately derail the deal, it underscores a central question: whether the first phase will lead to an agreement on the next phase and a lasting ceasefire. The last agreement reached in November 2023 provided only a pause. This time it's likely to be similar - a six-week hiatus before fighting and destruction resumes while the remaining hostages remain in Gaza.
A more durable solution would require political arrangements in Gaza, an issue Netanyahu has so far studiously avoided discussing. Gaza needs a new Palestinian administration with its own army or foreign forces capable of keeping the peace. Without this, Hamas will almost certainly regain control of the shattered territory after Israeli forces withdraw - and the war will be just one highly destructive round, but not the last. From the beginning of this conflict, Israel should work with the United States, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, and the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank to establish the framework for a new government in Gaza. Instead, by failing to develop a policy for Gaza’s future, Netanyahu’s government has turned the war into a highway to nowhere.
Netanyahu's far-right partners have pledged to reverse Israel's 2005 decision to withdraw troops from Gaza and restore Israeli settlements there. Netanyahu has not yet endorsed the goal, but he opposes any Palestinian Authority governance role in Gaza, although foreign partners see its inclusion as crucial. Outgoing Secretary of State Antony Blinken emphasized this in a speech on Tuesday.
For the second phase of the deal to succeed — to end the war and bring the remaining hostages home — both Hamas and the Israeli government must confront the complex issues surrounding Gaza’s future. Anyone who wants an end to the pain of the past 15 months must have at least a quarter of hope. But it's best to postpone any celebrations until a final agreement is reached.