The Fed was closely following policy decisions on Wednesday, with a strong motivation to do nothing.

Faced with the unsolved problems of President Donald Trump’s tariffs and the economy that indicate both obvious advantages and disadvantages, central bank policymakers are now almost impossible to do, except sit down and wait as the events develop.

"It would be awkward at this meeting," said Vincent Reinhart, a former Fed official and now chief economist at BNY Investments. "The Fed has no predictions about the next couple's meeting." "The Fed has to wait for two things: seeing that the policy is actually in place... But when it proves, it has to see how inflation expectations react. That's why the Fed has to delay and then slowly develop."

In fact, according to CME Group's FedWatch meter, futures market pricing has little chance of lowering interest rates at this week's meeting, with only about one-third of the probability of moving from March 17 to 18.

Market expectations have changed over the past week to respond to mixed economic signals and show that President Donald Trump has at least become increasingly aggressive in his tariff approach. The White House has shown that although several trade deals are not announced yet to be completed.

Reinhart said his company had two cuts this year, which is a road higher than the three cuts starting in July. A week ago, starting in June, the market bets were as many as four times.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will stay at his postal press conference to explain where he and his colleagues see the policy ideas.

"The other unsatisfactory part is that they don't know what June is going to do," Reinhardt said. "So he's going to have to say everything is on the table. He always says that, but this time, he's going to have to."

But Powell is bound to face questions about how policymakers see recent data barrage, which has painted an image of the economy filled with pessimism from consumers and business executives, pictures that have not yet fallen into tough numbers like spending and employment.

Although GDP fell 0.3% in the first quarter, the product of a surge in imports ahead of Trump's April 2 tariff announcement. April’s non-agricultural wage report showed that recruitment continued to stabilize and the economy added 177,000 jobs to the month’s jobs.

Meanwhile, the manufacturing and service sector investigations have paid great attention to the inflation and supply impact of tariffs. Similarly, consumer optimism is at multi-year lows, while inflation expectations are multi-year highs.

All of this adds up to the ropes that Powell and the company walked at least during the June meeting.

"The Fed will have patience at their press conferences. Wait for more data," said Tony Rodriguez, head of fixed income strategy at Nuveen. "There is too much uncertainty right now to act, but if they start to see weaker job markets, be prepared to act."

Nuveen also expects only two layoffs this year, with a two-fold increase next year as the Fed will navigate growth rates and tariff prices.

"Our expectation is that you won't see it at this meeting," Rodriguez said. "They just need to see more hard data until June or July, and we don't think it's clear. I think the September meeting is the first cut."

The Fed will not update its economic forecasts at this meeting, nor will its members' "point" chart of interest rates. That will be in June. Therefore, the set FAP will adjust in post-conference statements and Powell’s press conference to abandon any possible hints of its collective thinking.

"We believe it will take months to accumulate cases for sufficient hard data evidence," Goldman said in a note. Goldman expects the Fed to cut in July, September and October to address economic weaknesses, and the company is looking to prioritize inflation.

One wildcard in the equation: Trump did in his first term, keeps urging the Fed to lower rates as the inflation edge is closer to the central bank's 2% target.

But while some members’ public statements show policy splits, BNY economist Reinhart has not seen the Fed bend over Trump’s will and has not undermined the hierarchy.

"The White House has fueled the committee's help to Jay Powell, because usually, when a family criticizes from the outside, it's less willing to criticize each other," Reinhart said. "Are you criticizing Jay Powell now and line up for the president?