In January, New York City's long-planned congestion pricing plan finally started charging tolls. Under the leadership of a handful of cities around the world (London, Stockholm, Milan, Singapore), most people driving in the "CBD" in Lower Manhattan now charge $9.
Donald Trump is a long-time critic of the program, the first of its kind in the U.S. to reduce emissions of transportation and raise billions of dollars in funding infrastructure. Currently, the government is trapped in a court battle with the city’s Metropolitan Transportation Administration (COUTH).
Trump is not alone. New Jersey Democratic Governor Phil Murphy has listed many New York commuters among the voters. And, while the polls have improved since its inception, initial public opinion was initially suspicious, convincing New York Gov. Kathy Hochul to postpone the implementation until after the presidential election.
Nevertheless, however, most of the evidence suggests that the policy is very successful in reducing transportation that plagues Manhattan and provides much-needed improvements to the public transportation system, with relatively few negative effects.
Several indicators show that traffic is continuing to decrease around congested areas and congested areas. At the historical average in March, vehicles entering the CBD fell by 13%, plus the speed of bridges and tunnels that are usually filled with traffic. This is supported by data from analytics firm INRIX, which also shows the smallest changes in the Manhattan bridge outside the region.
In terms of funding, the MTA expects $500 million to raise this year before the issuance of the securities before the issuance of large bonds, providing investments for projects including signal upgrades, station elevators and line extensions. In the long run, these will improve transportation accessibility and efficiency.
A new working paper by economists in collaboration with Google researchers has drawn similar conclusions about Google Maps traffic trend data. They pointed out that increased traffic speeds inside and outside the area have no negative impact on local roads. Critics expressed concern about the “spillover effects” in neighboring communities, but researchers found that most of these areas benefited in general. Free-flowing bridges and tunnels may also mean less disturbance to local flows.
During critical peak hours, data show that bus speeds in the area are also faster than the same period last year, while external speeds are also narrower. This also shows that emergency vehicles in the area have shorter response times, which is supported by data from the New York City Fire Department.
Councillors also care about local businesses. However, New York City Economic Development Corporation's analysis found that pedestrian traffic in the area increased, with visitors in March 2025 3.1% higher than the same month in 2024. Some of this may be due to recovery from the Covid-19-19 pandemic, but they noted that growth in 2024 increased by 0.1% from the previous year.
Perhaps most importantly, the harm caused by pedestrians and cyclists appears to have dropped drastically, according to nonprofit Chekpeds.
Any toll will raise questions about the affordability of the average commuter, a central criticism of some legislators. In a letter to Trump in January, Murphy called it a "disaster for workers and middle-class New Jersey commuters and residents who need or want to visit Lower Manhattan." However, even before the loss, only 11% of commuters entered the CBD. Of course, this kind of trip is never free: drivers spend money on gasoline and car maintenance, and time sitting in Manhattan traffic.
But while the debate over crowded pricing began with a fight against policy, it has turned into an ideological battle under Trump. The growing evidence that the success of the program may not matter, which fundamentally opposes investing in public transport at the expense of drivers. But as its gains become more obvious, public support has begun to make it easier for local politicians to defend their losses.
Hochul is a great example. She is now a fierce defender after publicly criticizing last year’s toll. She responded on social media after the Ministry of Transport’s latest law Salvo: “(Toll) cameras are continuing.”
sam.learner@ft.com