The more Jamie Dimon is worried, the better his bank seems to be.
As JPMorgan Chase has become bigger, more profitable in recent years and increasingly important to the U.S. economy, its star CEO has become increasingly louder about what might go wrong, and everything is driving for his bank.
At its best and worst, Dimon's open prospects become grim.
Whether it is his 2022 forecast of a “hurricane” hit the U.S. economy, his concerns about the wear and tear of the World War II world order, or his caution about the United States’ hit by a recession or two and inflation hits, Dimon seems to be bringing every revenue, television coverage and investor activity, with another serious warning.
“His track record of leading the bank is incredible,” said Ben Mackovak, a board member of the four banks, through his company’s strategic value banking partner. “He made economics-ancient sexual predictions with poor records.”
In his two decades, Dimon's JPMorgan, 69, helped build a financial institution with what the world has seen.
Dimon's bank is huge in both the Main Street Banking and Wall Street high finance, and in his own words, it is a final champion. It has more branches, deposits and online users than any peer, and is a leading credit card and small business franchise. It has the highest market share in both trading and investment banking, with over $10 trillion in global payment fees per day.
A review of Dimon's 20 Years of Investor of the Year and its public statements shows a clear evolution. He became CEO in 2006, and his first decade as JPMorgan was consumed by the U.S. housing bubble, the 2008 financial crisis and its long consequences, including the acquisition of two failed rivals, Bear Stearns and Washington Mutual.
However, as he began his second decade leading JPMorgan, just as the legal hangover of the mortgage crisis began to fade, Dimon began to see new storms.
"Another crisis will happen," he wrote in an April 2015 CEO letter. He was addicted to potential triggers, noting that the recent pivotal revolving in U.S. debt was a "warning" for the market.
The passage marks the beginning of Dimon's more frequent financial warnings, including concerns about a recession (which didn't trigger a two-month contraction until the 2020 pandemic), and concerns about market collapse and surge in the U.S. deficit.
But it also marks a decade when JPMorgan's performance began to beat rivals.
After bringing about $20 billion in annual profits per year in a few years, the huge machine Dimon responsible for is starting to really stride forward. JPMorgan made seven record annual profits from 2015 to 2024, twice as much as Dimon's first-time CEO.
At that time, investors began to actively bid for JPMorgan shares and considered it a growth company in a boring industry. JPMorgan Chase is now the world's most valuable listed financial company, spending $18 billion a year on technologies including artificial intelligence to keep this way.
Although Dimon seems to be forever worried about the rise in economic and geopolitical unrest, the United States has been working hard. This means unemployment and consumer spending are more resilient than expected, allowing JPMorgan to raise record profits.
In 2022, Dimon told a professional investor to prepare for an economic storm: “Now, it’s a sunny day, and it’s a good thing that everyone thinks the Fed can handle that,” Dimon said, referring to the Fed that manages the pandemic economy.
"That hurricane was there and walked our way," he said.
"This is probably the most dangerous time in decades in the world," Dimon said in a profit release.
But investors who listened to Dimon and made their portfolio more conservative will miss the best two-year run of the 500 index in decades.
“No doubt, no doubt, it’s an interesting contradiction,” McOvack said of Dimon’s mean remarks and his bank’s performance.
"Part of that might just be Jamie Dimon's branding," the investor said. "Or there is a win-win narrative where if anything happens, you can say, 'Oh, I call it,' and if not, then your bank is still working on it."
Bankers know that broadcasting caution is wiser than optimism, according to the former president of the top five U.S. financial institutions. For example, former Citigroup CEO Chuck Prince is known for his 2007 commentary on the bad fortunes of the mortgage business: “As long as the music is playing, you have to get up and dance.”
"Someone knows that if you're too optimistic and go wrong, there are a lot of shortcomings in your reputation," the former president said. "It's wreak havoc on your bank, you look stupid, and instead, you look like a very cautious, thoughtful banker."
Banking is ultimately a business with calculated risks and its CEO must make it unfavorable to prevent them from repaying their loans, said Mike Mayo, a banking analyst at Wells Fargo.
"It's an old cliché, a good banker holding an umbrella when the sun shines; they always look around the corner, always realizing what might be wrong," Mayo said.
But other long-term Diamond Watchers saw something else.
Charles Peabody, an analyst at Portales Partners, said Dimon had “ulterior motives” for public comment.
“I think this kind of rhetoric is about keeping his management team focused on future risks, whether they happen or not,” Peabody said. “With high performance, high growth franchise, he’s trying to stop them from becoming complacent, so I think he’s deeply rooted in their culture and a constant war room type atmosphere.”
Although his bank made a record $58.5 billion in profit last year, Dimon is not enough to worry about the things these days. The conflict between Ukraine and Gaza swept U.S. national debt, and President Donald Trump's trade policy continues to shake opponents and allies.
"It's fair to see that he's not omniscient, not everything he says is realizing," said Truist Bank analyst Brian Foran. "From one perspective, he needs to prepare for X, not that we believe X will happen."
Foran noted that JPMorgan Chase’s interest rates were higher than most peers, when interest rates soared and punished those holding low-yield long-term bonds.
“For years, he said, ‘For 10 years, it was 5% for 10 years, and we all thought he was crazy because it was about 1% at the time,” Foran said. “It turns out that preparation is not a bad thing.”
Perhaps the best explanation for Dimon's Dour prospect is that financial companies will become vulnerable no matter how big and powerful JPMorgan is. Financial history is one of the rise and fall of institutions, sometimes when managers become complacent or greedy.
In fact, the cemetery of the bank logo no longer used includes three – Bell Stearns, Washington Mutual Aid and the First Republic – included by JPMorgan.
During this month’s Bank Investors Day meeting, Dimon noted that JPMorgan Chase has been one of the only companies to earn more than 17% of annual revenues over the past decade.
"If you go back to the previous 10 years, OK, a lot of people earn more than 17 percent," Dimon said. "Almost everyone is going bankrupt. Did you hear what I just said?"
"Almost every major financial company has been successful," he said. "It's a tough world."