Trump’s decision to make 100% tariffs on foreign-made films brought to the U.S. on Sunday shows that perhaps he is not reconciling as investors hope. Or it could be a reminder of how unstable his tariff decision agenda remains.

Either way, that's enough to help beat Wall Street on Monday for a nine-day rise, which holds the longest winning streak in years compared to the major Asian and European markets. Will they run out of puff on Tuesday?

It may be a lower bar, but there are two developments over the weekend that could help investors see the market's "semi-intact" -- Trump promised chairman Jerome Powell, who is reluctant to firefighters, while Japanese Treasury Secretary Katsunobu Kato said Japan has no threat to sell its $10,000 U.S. Treasury in a trade deal with Washington state.

Finance Minister Scott Bessent reiterated his belief on Monday that along with the government’s tax cuts and deregulation agenda, next year will boost growth to nearly 3%.

The U.S. economic data is mainly in the stronger expectations, which gives the Fed more breathing space, although how long it lasts.

Some Asian currencies have achieved their biggest gains over the years, with auto giant Ford receiving annual guidance on Monday. Tariff uncertainty is still deep.

Wall Street's "fever dream" may end in cold sweat

Wall Street's recent rebound from its April lows suggests that stock investors' pricing is a healthy outlook for the U.S. economy, in stark contrast to more ominous signals from oil, gold and fixed income markets. Is this reasonable confidence or dangerous complacency?

If you shut down all newsletters from April 2 and log in today, you'll find that the S&P 500 index has roughly no change, with no indication that a 15% downturn suffered losses in the days following President Donald Trump's April 2 tariff announcement.

The S&P 500 rose to May 2 for nine consecutive days, the best daily winning streak in 21 years. Meanwhile, the S&P 493 - which excludes the broad index of the "magnificent Seven" technology giants - has been flat so far, which is also striking given the uproars of the past four months.

In sharp contrast with other markets.

Oil was the lowest in four years on Friday, down 25% year-on-year. While this part reflects OPEC+’s call for accelerating hikes, the flashing macroeconomic signals here are clear: weak demand, slow growth and disinfection.

Meanwhile, gold has risen 25% this year, which is still higher than its "liberation day" despite its recent $3,500 high. While this is not a sign of heightened fear, it is generally a sign of increased fear. Gold bars have very little charm as the world's top safe haven asset.

What library do we have? Two-year yields have rebounded in recent days, but are still down 40 basis points this year, while interest rate traders still expect the Fed to cut at least a third of this year. Both are priced on a meaningful economic slowdown.

Cold sweat

This is just an example of an old motto where equity investors are paid to optimism while bond investors are pessimistic?

Maybe, but Wall Street has some reasons for optimism. This stems in large part from the view that the economic damage caused by tariffs is not as bad as it was a few weeks ago, in part because the Trump administration supports it in the face of market conditions. In other words, "Trump proposes" is back.

Investors also have reasons not to worry too much about the 0.3% contraction of GDP in the first quarter, as it largely reflects the preload of imports, a statistical anomaly that will be reversed soon.

According to Goldman Sachs economists, it is a "total distorted product" and he expects GDP expansion to reach 2.4% in the second quarter.

Furthermore, while “soft” economic data (such as consumer sentiment indicators) continue to flash red, most “hard” data like employment numbers remain well.

And, even if the actual growth this year is only 0.5% - Goldman Sachs' estimates are the lower end of the forecast - this still means that many economists expect to represent a nominal growth of nearly 5% if inflation exceeds 4%.

Importantly, earnings are driven by nominal growth rates. While the first quarter earnings are clearly a “rear-view mirror” figure in the context of the trade war, so far, about 74% of the S&P 500’s 357 companies have beaten analyst estimates, according to LSEG’s Tajinder Dhillon. By comparison, the long-term average is 67.0%.

The S&P 500's 12-month growth expectation remains strong at 10%.

But that's not the whole story. Many companies have cut their forecasts or refuse to provide any guidance.

Even if Trump seems likely to call his initial tariff figures, the cost of running an international business will still rise significantly. Whether the cost is more borne by the business or the consumer, but the impact will be the same in the context of wider economic activity and corporate profitability.

The tariffs have not bitten, but they will. In an interview with Bloomberg on Friday, Los Angeles Port Executive Director Gene Seroka (the largest in the country is the largest fist) did not applaud: “The CEO told me, ‘Click the pause button.

Unlimited Fund CEO Bob Elliott believes the stock pricing seems to have been a "fever dream" last month. The risk is that investors have burst into cold sweats in the coming months.

Can the market be transferred tomorrow?

*China's "unofficial" Caixin Services PMI (April) *Eurozone producer price inflation (March) *Trump meets Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney at white home *U.S. Treasury 10-year bill auction *U.S. trade (March)

The opinions expressed are the opinions of the author. They did not reflect the views of Reuters News, which is committed to integrity, independence and freedom from prejudice under the principle of trust.

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(Edited by Jamie McGeever, Nia Williams)