Wayne Cole

SYDNEY (Reuters) - Wall Street stock futures jumped on Monday, with the dollar firming on safe haven peers as signs of progress in U.S.-China trade talks sparked hopes that a global recession could be avoided, although details of any deal will still come.

Geopolitical tensions also appear to be easing a fragile ceasefire between India and Pakistan, while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said he was preparing to meet Vladimir Putin in Turkey on Thursday.

In Geneva, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent touted "substantial progress" in trade discussions, while Chinese officials said the two sides had reached "important consensus" and agreed to launch another new forum for economic dialogue.

"Then, we seem to have a broad framework here where the two countries can negotiate further to reach a broader trade agreement," said Michael Brown, senior research strategist at Pepperstone.

"From this weekend's negotiations, this is not the worst outcome, far from that, but not a specific deal," he added. "Does this progress allow any tariffs to be suspended, reduced or backed, and if so, how long will it take?"

Investors hope the White House will soon expand 145% tariffs on Chinese goods, even if it only returns to 60% that President Donald Trump first marked.

Trump still seems to be trying to keep widespread tariffs that will delay economic growth and raise prices anyway, but any trade progress can help avoid the downturn.

The market reaction was driven by pushing the S&P 500 by 1.1%, while Nasdaq futures grew 1.4%.

Nikkei Futures rose 1.3%, noting the same rise when Nikkei opened.

The dollar rose 0.4% to 145.90 on the safe haven yen, despite an early peak of 146.31 in the five-week period. The euro fell 0.2% to $1.1224, while the U.S. dollar index rose 0.2% to 100.60.

Frugal feeding

Trump's unstable trade policy has put pressure on the dollar in recent weeks, despite some support last week when the Fed expressed its rush to lower interest rates again.

Data on U.S. consumer prices due this week could present an early tip on the impact of import taxes on inflation, while retail sales fell in April after a pre-renewal surge in the previous month.

"We expect CPI data not to be released until May until we see extensive evidence of tariffs in inflation data," ANZ analysts wrote in a NETTE.

"In this regard, we think it's too early for the Fed to lower rates and maintain our view of the third quarter and September as a more realistic timeframe," they added. "This will have the opportunity to observe the impact of higher tariffs on price levels and ongoing inflation."