S&P 500 has best week since November election: Market wrap-up

(Bloomberg) -- Stocks rose ahead of Donald Trump’s inauguration, posting their best week since November’s presidential election.

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Most components of the S&P 500 were higher, with the index up 1% on Friday. Nvidia Corp. and Tesla Inc. led gains among large stocks, while Intel Corp. rose more than 9% after reports that the chipmaker was a takeover target. Sentiment was also boosted by headlines that Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping discussed trade, TikTok and fentanyl, which could set the tone for relations between the world's two largest economies. Bonds also rebounded this week, with the 10-year Treasury yield falling about 15 basis points.

Trump, who will be sworn in as the 47th president of the United States on Monday, reiterated his focus on core priorities such as cutting taxes and raising tariffs. Stocks soared after the election on bets that the new administration would enact policies that would boost growth for U.S. businesses. While stocks fell last month on hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve, recent data showing cooling inflation has reignited bets on rate cuts.

“Easing inflation data this week and a positive reaction to earnings from multiple financial companies have led to gains in bonds and stocks,” said Piper Sandler’s Craig Johnson. “Recent short-term oversold conditions and weak bullish sentiment are supporting major stock indexes rising from major Recovery in the trend.”

For Nationwide's Mark Hackett, the rally in stocks is encouraging and suggests the balance between bulls and bears is leveling out.

“The market is likely to remain jagged throughout earnings season,” he noted. "Once earnings season ends, expectations are reset and the buyback window reopens, bulls can re-establish control."

The S&P 500 index extended its gain this week to 2.9%. The Nasdaq 100 rose 1.7% on Friday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.8%. An index of the "Big Seven" giant stocks rose 1.8%. The Russell 2000 index rose 0.4%. Bank stocks continued to soar, boosted by solid earnings, sending the closely watched industry index up 8.2% this week. U.S. markets were closed Monday for a holiday.

The 10-year Treasury yield was little changed at 4.61%. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.3%. Bitcoin jumped to around $105,000.

“What a difference one week can make,” said Steve Sosnick of Interactive Brokers. “This time last Friday, stocks were selling off sharply on the back of a better-than-expected jobs report. It revealed a lot about stocks There seems to be a clear preference for lower interest rates rather than a solid economy.”

From a technical perspective, Janney Montgomery Scott's Dan Wantrobski said this setup is "almost perfect for oversold conditions to collide with positive news and trigger the rally we're currently experiencing."

Stock investors will have one big reason to breathe a sigh of relief when Trump is sworn in as the next President of the United States on Monday. History shows that performance of equity benchmarks over a three-month period typically improves after Inauguration Day.

History shows the S&P 500 averaged just about 1% in the three months leading up to the ceremony and was up 3.7% by the end, according to a Jefferies analysis of data going back to 1929.

The index "is typically more volatile around the inauguration," but things started to improve a few months later, the firm's strategists said. In fact, the S&P gained an average of 8.3% in the six months after the inauguration and about 9.5% in the 12 months after the inauguration, according to Jefferies.

Bank of America strategists said Trump's return to the White House could protect U.S. stocks from a sharp sell-off as investors focus on his protectionist agenda and proposals to lower corporate taxes.

U.S. stocks are "protected" from downside by Trump, strategist Michael Hartnett wrote in a note, but he also doesn't expect U.S. stocks to be heavily concentrated in Big Tech stocks , valuation and investor positions and other risks have risen sharply.

"We continue to view U.S. equities as attractive and expect 9% earnings growth this year to push the S&P 500 to 6,600 by year-end," said Mark Haefele of UBS Global Wealth Management. “Given their larger investments in AI, better earnings trends and lower reliance on Fed rate cuts, large-cap stocks should outperform small and mid-cap stocks.

From an industry perspective, he likes information technology, financials, utilities, communications services and consumer discretionary.

"U.S. equities have significantly outperformed U.S. equities over the years, so it's difficult to look at opportunities outside the U.S. and think they will be more attractive," said Zerid Osmani of Martin Currie Investment Management. "But valuation discipline has to be an important perspective for investors right now as we need to see earnings momentum expand."

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This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

--With assistance from Isabelle Lee, Sujata Rao, Margaryta Kirakosian, and John Viljoen.

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