Climate and Science Reporter
Part of the Soviet-era spacecraft is expected to crash this week after being trapped in orbit for more than half a century.
According to NASA, Kosmos 482 was launched in 1972 as part of a mission to Venus, but it never escaped low Earth orbit and was divided into four pieces.
According to NASA, one of the works considered to be the Lander Detector is expected to re-enter our atmosphere around May 10, at least part of which can survive on the journey without burning.
We don't know much about reentry including possible landings, but even if there is any survival, 70% of the planet is covered by the ocean, so it's unlikely to cause significant damage.
"You are more likely to win a lottery than you are affected by this space debris," said Mr. Stijn Lemmens, senior space debris analyst at the European Space Agency.
The lander capsule is a solid spherical object about one meter wide and weighs nearly half a ton.
It was built to survive the extreme heat and pressure of Venus' atmosphere, meaning it has a solid heat shield and a durable construction.
This is why experts believe it can survive through uncontrolled decline in the Earth's atmosphere.
The parachute system was originally designed to slow the lander's decline to Venus, which likely degenerated early in space for more than 50 years.
The risk for people on the ground is considered low, but the capsule's expected flight path can be seen landing anywhere at 51.7° north latitude, covering most of the worlds inhabited.
This means it could potentially go from the north to London to the southern end of South America.
An uncontrolled space debris incident occurred before.
Mr Lemons explained that “reentering man-made objects into the Earth’s atmosphere often occurs”, once a week, for larger spacecraft, targeting smaller spacecraft every day. Objects usually burn in the Earth's atmosphere before reaching the ground.
China's upgraded booster on March 5 re-entered the Indian Ocean in 2022, with the Tianhe 1 space station mostly burning in the Pacific in 2018.
Kosmos 482 is now receiving close attention from international space agencies.
Mr Lemons said future spacecraft “should be in a way that can safely de-orbit from orbit, preferably through controlled re-entry.”
This allows precise predictions of landing sites, reducing the risk of any debris that affects densely populated areas, thus protecting people and property while “managing the environmental impact of space debris.”