The Boston Celtics have the lowest odds overall (+200) to win the NBA championship on ESPN BET on Friday.

But should the Celtics really be the favorites? While the Celtics are doing well overall this season, there are two teams that were significantly better in the first half. The Celtics' current 28-12 losses are equivalent to the Thunder (34-6, +250 wins) and Cavaliers (34-6, +750 wins) combined. In fact, through 40 games, both the Thunder and Cavaliers are on pace to win 70 games. Each.

The Celtics enter Friday night's game against the Orlando Magic having lost three of their last five games and six of their last 12 games. The losses in the past three games have totaled 43 points, with each loss by at least 13 points, including a blowout loss to the Orlando Magic. On Wednesday, they defeated the Raptors 10-31.

Why are the Celtics still favored to win the championship?

Some of it is inertia. The Celtics won last season's championship in conventional fashion. They won the Eastern Conference by a whopping 14 games and were seven games ahead of the Thunder, who had the best record in the Western Conference. They were never really challenged in the playoffs either, winning 16 of 19 games on their way to the title. They then went on to win 16 of their first 19 games to start the season and win at the NBA level in dominant fashion.

As the sports world winds down the NFL season and the College Football Playoff over the past month and a half, the Celtics' "waiting for a championship" mentality remains... largely under the radar. No one was really talking about them, which allowed their championship aura to go largely undiminished until their recent struggles.

Offense: Over-reliance on three-pointers

So, now people are paying attention. If you look closely, there are some warning signs for the Celtics. Last season their team led the league in offensive efficiency (123.2 points per 100 possessions). They still have the third-best offense in the NBA this season at 119.7 points per 100, but they are the only team in the NBA shooting more than three from beyond the arc per game (49.3 3-point attempts). A team that shoots fewer shots inside the arc (41.6 two-point field goals). When three-pointers go in, they can pound teams from the sidelines. But against quality defense, or just a cool shooting night, the Celtics currently don't have a balanced enough offense to win these games.

And they shot only 36.2% from three-point range, ranking 15th in the NBA. As a result, the Eastern Conference-leading Cavaliers are averaging just 1.7 fewer three-pointers per game than the Celtics (16.2 3-pointers vs. 17.9 3-pointers), even though the Cavaliers are averaging nearly 9 fewer attempts per game ( The number of three-pointers attempted were 40.5 and 39.3 respectively). The Cavaliers are much more balanced. In addition to the two All-Star big men in Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen, they also have two All-Star guards in Donovan Mitchell and Darius. S Garland. As a result, their 3-point shooting percentage is nearly as good as the Celtics, and they also have the best shooting percentages in the league from inside the arc (58.6 2P%) and from outside (39.9 3P%).

Defense: Thunder better

On the other end of the floor, the Celtics dropped from third in the league last season to seventh in defensive efficiency (110.8 points allowed per 100 possessions), while their arch-rivals, the Thunder, dominated defensively. alliance. Their defensive efficiency is 103.6 points per 100 possessions, nearly 4 points higher than the second-place Magic and a full 7 points higher than the Celtics.

The Thunder have maintained their defensive dominance despite simultaneous injuries to one or both of their star big men. Chet Holmgren was one of the NBA's leading shot-blockers (2.6 rebounds) before suffering a hip injury in 10 games, while Isaiah Hartenstein was in his 24 games. China, who has been one of the NBA's leading rebounders (12.2 rebounds), was injured. But the Thunder didn't have their big men on the floor at any point, and they stifled the Cavaliers on Thursday night despite being without one.

futures angle

Many people believe that what happens in the regular season doesn't matter, only the playoffs matter. Before the playoffs began, the only memory people had of the Celtics was their dominant run to the championship. But the Cavaliers (+750) and Thunder (+200) are playing better and more efficiently in the playoffs than the Celtics, who have relied on three-point shooting this season.

While the Celtics have emerged as one of the top three championship contenders this season, their current odds don't make them good future value compared to the other two teams. The Thunder are in the West without another dominant team this season, so they have a clearer path to the title than the Celtics, and since they're in the same division as the Cavaliers, Boston will likely have to go through Cleveland and two teams in Cleveland. and Oklahoma City won the championship.

Thunder and Cavaliers are better betting values

Given that path and the fact that they still have longer odds, the Thunder at +250 are a better value than the Celtics at +200. The Cavaliers, meanwhile, may not have the experience of the Celtics, but they've been dominant long enough to be at least the favorite in the Eastern Conference. However, they now have more momentum than the Celtics, making them the most valuable of the three top contenders for the championship.