The U.S. will now defeat China in the conflict in Taiwan, the top U.S. military commander in the Indo-Pacific region said the U.S. will now defeat China in the conflict in Taiwan, but warned that it faces increasing challenges as China rapidly expands its military speed.
“The United States will prevail in the conflict now,” Admiral Samuel Paparo said Friday at the McCain Institute in Arizona’s annual Sedona Forum.
Paparo, a year after he took the helm at the Indo-Pacific Command, stressed that the U.S. military has a key advantage in subsea capabilities, as well as its outstanding capabilities in space and weapons to deal with space assets. But he warned that China is building weapons systems, including warships, much faster than the United States.
"Our trajectory is actually a prominent force element that is bad trajectory," Papalo said.
Paparo said China produces two submarines a year. It also manufactures six combatants warships a year compared to the US-made 1.8.
His warning was issued as the People's Liberation Army continued to expand its exercises significantly around Taiwan.
Paparo’s former retired Admiral John Aquilino said last year that China adopted a “boiling frog” strategy – gradually raising military temperatures, so the threat would be underestimated to be too late.
Paparo said the PLA has greatly upgraded its activities since he took out his command and rehearsed for Taiwan’s “whole military operation.”
"You hear the metaphor of 'boiling frog'...it's a quick boiling."
He said the rehearsal ranged from preparing to capture Taiwan’s island to sea blockade or attacks on the country.
"The speed of change in depth and breadth of practice is a nonlinear effect I saw last year, which awakens me at night, or keeps me up at night," he said.
PLA is also becoming more active in other parts of the Pacific Ocean, Paparo said. In February, the PLA warship bypassed the country for the first time, conducting live exercises in southeastern Australia.
“They stretched their legs…to become global power bit by bit.”
When asked about the advice Aquilino gave him when he started his three-year term, Paparo told him that he might end up being the U.S. commander in the war with Taiwan and China.
“He said…this could happen on your watch,” Dad said.
President Xi Jinping has told his military to develop the ability to attack Taiwan by 2027 - but that doesn't mean China intends to take action that year.
"It's not a date. It's a ready date," Papalo said.
Paparo said the PLA has reached some of its 2027 goals, including its rocket forces and satellite constellations needed to operate intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance assets.
Paparo said any decision to take military action will ultimately be based on several factors, including its level of military readiness, its assumptions about whether Taiwan can thwart the invasion and the “possibility of the allies’ capacity, will and possibility of Taiwan”.
Asked if the American people would support military action to help Taiwan, he said the United States had taken action when it was threatened or believed that the reasons that affected its interests were worth it.
"A lesson in history is that people always say that America will never fight," Papuro said. "But it's not the record."