In the most valuable sports league in the world, perhaps the most impactful decision a team can make is deciding who will play the most important position: quarterback. Minnesota's decision last spring to sign Sam Darnold to a one-year, $10 million contract 17 weeks into the NFL season looked like one of the best deals in the league.
Originally slated to be a backup for the Vikings, but due to a preseason injury to rookie and first-round pick J.J. McCarthy, Darnold was thrust into the starting role on the eve of the regular season. Darnold immediately found his way into Minnesota head coach Kevin's offense. thrive in the system. O'Connell, a former NFL quarterback himself, showed the kind of performance that earned him the third overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft, and Minnesota was already in its fourth stop, where his struggles weren't as severe. Darnold’s seven-year career.
However, the woes began Monday after the Minnesota Vikings' season came to a shocking end with a 27-9 loss to the Los Angeles Rams in the first round of the NFL playoffs.
Do teams around the league still view Darnold as a potential franchise guy who can lead the team to new heights, or is he a flawed free agent who will regress to the mean?
Just two weeks ago, many people wouldn't have considered this question. Entering the final week of the regular season, the Vikings are riding a nine-game winning streak, a streak that can be attributed to Minnesota's aggressive defense but also to their quarterback, who has thrown 35 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. Darnold's passer rating and pass completion percentage both hit career highs. Teammates liked Darnold so much that Minnesota won Game 14 in Week 17 (breaking a franchise record) and set up a regular-season finale against Detroit that ultimately decided the NFC playoffs. After the No. 1 seed, Vikings players lifted Darnold to their shoulders in raucous cheers.
It's been such an exciting career resurgence that one has to wonder if Darnold's success will cause the Vikings to reconsider their succession plan of starting McCarthy in 2025.
However, if the Vikings were one of the NFL's best stories, they were quickly heading toward one of the league's worst endings. The Vikings beat Detroit by 22 points in the season finale on Jan. 5 and Darnold struggled under pressure, just eight days before the Vikings lost in the first round of the playoffs. Once again, they were outplayed by the Rams, who sacked Darnold nine times.
One NFL executive who evaluates talent said Darnold's final two games may have cost him millions of dollars, but he is still expected to be pursued by multiple teams. The executive spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to discuss other players publicly.
"The market is still pretty strong for him," the executive told NBC News. "He's still young and experienced and there are a lot of teams that could be interested in him, like the Raiders, the Titans, the Seahawks. And the Browns. Coach's alignment is critical."
The Raiders are projected to have the most cap space of any team -- about $92 million, second-most in the NFL -- to sign free agents, according to overthecap.com.
That sentiment was echoed by ESPN reporter Jeremy Fowler, who wrote on Monday that Darnold remains the top quarterback on the free agent market.
If Darnold isn't in Minnesota in 2025, his efforts to win a big contract elsewhere and maintain his starting status will likely be driven by two factors: precedent and scarcity.
In each of the past two seasons, quarterbacks have been rewarded handsomely after experiencing career resurgence seasons that teams believe can be replicated. Seattle signed Geno Smith ostensibly to serve as a temporary bridge to its future quarterback, but Geno Smith performed well enough in 2022 to earn a three-year contract worth a reported $75 million. A year later, another former first-round pick, Baker Mayfield, became a Ranger -- including a season as Darnold's teammate in Carolina -- in his first with Tampa Bay. The season was so good that he earned a three-year contract worth a reported $100 million.
Teams in need of a quarterback are also not guaranteed to find one in the 2025 draft. The NFL executive said teams are "tepid" on potential quarterbacks.
Vikings coach O'Connell suggested the team consider Darnold's full season when making any decisions. Minnesota could franchise Darnold, which would pay him the average salary of the league's top quarterbacks but prevent him from becoming a free agent next year.
"What he's been able to do this year is rare, when not many people thought he could lead this team to 14 wins," O'Connell told reporters. "The way he comes in is just committed to the job every day to be the The best version of yourself.”
He wasn't the best version of himself with an early playoff exit. The multi-million dollar question surrounding the NFL is how many teams believe Darnold can still fulfill their potential.