The bomber believes Russia may never rebuild. Such a painful fleet could force Moscow to reconsider its way of raiding Ukraine. A profound strike on Russian soil, even against weak enemies.

As the losses from Ukrainian drone raids over the weekend were made clear from satellite imagery and expert assessments, so was the scale of the operation.

Ukraine's boldness - planned for 18 months to hide drones on trucks to attack military airports thousands of kilometers from Kiev - largely matched the major damage caused by Russian bombers.

Analysts say that while the impact on Russia's nuclear capabilities may be embarrassing but limited, the attack is expected to affect Ukraine's daily operations.

Perhaps most importantly, for Kief, Ukraine could also show that – on the eve of a ceasefire negotiation with Russia in Istanbul, it was able to change the dynamics on the battlefield, forcing the Kremlin to accept a new reality, even without the use of Western weapons, the target became vulnerable within its territory, even if it was not used.

Michael Kofman, a military analyst at the Carnegie International Peace Endowment Foundation, said the Ukraine strike “doubtically reduces the potential of Russia’s standoff strike” and destroys planes that Russia will be difficult to replace.

"Given the size of Russia's bomber fleet, while this may not be enough to stop Ukraine's strike, it shows that continuing the war has created a real cost for Russia as a military force," Koffman added.

The bold original operation involved smuggling drones to Russia and transporting attack sites with camouflaged crates in trucks, hitting aircraft capable of deploying conventional and nuclear weapons.

The estimated number remains different. Ukraine claims that more than 40 aircraft were damaged or destroyed. Russia only acknowledged "a few aviation equipment affected by the fire." Other evaluations by open source researchers show that the actual number of aircraft destroyed or damaged is more like 10 to 12.

Even this marks a major blow to Russia's war efforts in Ukraine, both in operational and political terms.

Several analysts told the Financial Times that the plane was damaged and destroyed by a strike, accounting for 20% of Russia's ready long-range aviation. These aircraft are designed to travel long distances and provide heavy payloads within the target country.

Although many bombers are under maintenance, "these aircraft are one of the most operated aircraft, making these losses particularly devastating," said Fabian Hoffmann, a PhD researcher at the University of Oslo.

William Alberque, a former Russian NATO weapon control official, said Russia used target bombers to attack Ukraine's civilian targets in Ukraine, including in the latest massive attack.

"They caused so much pain and pain," he said. "It's a direct way to fight back and try to prevent future attacks."

Now, not only will Russia attack Ukraine have fewer bombers, but it must also consider changing its tactics. This includes whether it is likely to risk grouping aircraft together, a method recently used to launch a massive strike against Ukraine.

Albek added: "If Russia has to spread them more for protection, it will directly reduce their ability to conduct large-scale strikes and overwhelm Ukrainian air defense."

The situation is complicated by the fact that the bomber's targets (Soviet TU-95 and TU-22M3) are no longer produced.

Ukrainian military analyst Oleksiy Melnyk said the operation “hits a strategic bomber that Russia can’t produce at present,” Razumkov Center, former Air Force official. "They got lost."

“It’s an epic failure from a professional standpoint, and the Russians will have to find answers to some very tricky questions and need to blame someone.”

The obvious negligence of Russian military leaders has opened the strategic carriers openly, sparking anger from the ZC-Community, a pro-war blogger of Russia.

"Some refuges have been pieced together as tactical aircraft that, even though these aircraft have long been irreplaceable, have no effect on the strategic fleet," Z-Channel wrote.

"The strike was a serious blow, otherwise the advice was self-deception," Rybar added.

Albek of the Stemson Center said Moscow could abandon efforts to replace the lost fleet altogether, which could take "years, even decades."

Vladimir Putin's influence on Russia's nuclear doctrine last year is likely to be limited.

The nuclear triad (a structure that includes land, ocean and air launchers), Russia has long relied on the latter because of their great vulnerability. Attacks may accelerate the transition that has been made to rely more on other carriers.

Hoffman of the University of Oslo said Russian strategic bombers account for about 10% of the country's strategic nuclear delivery systems. Submarines account for about 30% of strategic nuclear delivery systems, while land-based systems account for about 60%.

However, the attack told Moscow that even areas far from the Ukrainian border are no longer considered safe. "There is a feeling among the Russians that the country's massive scale provides strategic depth - a refuge," Albek said. "What the Ukrainians do is at the heart of this assumption."

For Ukraine, complex actions also helped demonstrate the country's determination, although Moscow maintained the maximum demands in early negotiations.

During the first round of negotiations held by the chief major of the Russian delegation Vladimir Medinsky, Vladimir Medinsky compared with the 21-year war between Russia and Sweden in the 18th century, emphasizing Russia's willingness to fight for a long time.

"This operation is also a way to ask them if they are sure of this, whether they are sure they can or are willing to continue the war for years and continue to suffer such losses."

Graphics Each haslett and Jana Tauschinski