BBC Rural Affairs and Climate and Science Team
According to the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (CEH), rivers in the UK are expected to reach unusually low levels in some parts of the country in the next three months, raising questions about the supply of families, farmers and businesses.
The warning was issued after England's driest spring since 1961, the driest start in the northern region in nearly a century.
Except for southwestern England, almost all river levels in the UK will be below normal or low river levels.
The Environment Agency said the UK is at a moderate risk of drought and warned households of risk of water restrictions.
Mark Owen, head of fishing for the Fishing Trust and member of the National Drought Organization, said the next 2-3 weeks will be "critical" to determine whether a drought will occur.
That is a government-led group that can announce whether a drought is officially underway.
The country is not in drought now, but the effects of unusually dry weather have been felt.
Some farmers are forced to water instead of relying on rainfall, which usually happens later this year.
Farmer Nick Deane told BBC News at Norfolk's farm.
He had to start irrigating his fields in March.
"We have to evaluate the water and decide which areas to put water in to keep the crops growing," he said.
He warned that a very long drought would mean that farmers have difficulty producing food and need to import more agricultural products.
This year’s dry and sunny weather has led to a large area burned by wildfires this year compared to any other year.
The last drought was from June to August 2022, the hottest summer since the 1890s (2018) and the fifth drying.
Five companies introduced a hose ban that affected 19 million people and waterways restricted navigation.
The drought was preceded by very dry weather for six months.
But the wet summer and moderately wet winters of 2024 mean that water supply is in a better place, and water companies have greater reserves to rely on.
But dry weather earlier this year is risky. Stephen Turner, a hydrologist at the British Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, said it does “have the potential to pose greater risks to water resources later this year, especially as drought continues.”
Last week, Richard Thompson, chairman of the National Drought Panel, warned that water companies may need to impose restrictions on water to protect supplies if dry weather continues.
At present, the key question is when and when it will rain next, and how much will it be.
There are some signs that the weather in the west ends next week.
Drinking water comes from different places, depending on the geography and geology of the region.
Roughly speaking, it took a long time for southern England to fall into drought, but it took a long time to leave. That's because a lot of rain is stored in underground rocks and it takes a long time to reach the river and supply water.
By contrast, northern England quickly entered drought and quickly emerged as reservoirs were more widely used for water supply.
Water companies introduce a hose ban when water supply reaches its area.
If drought conditions become severe, the government can limit irrigation on farms, reduce boat movements on waterways, and limit water available to non-essential businesses such as car washes.
In extreme cases, it can evaluate the amount of water available to homes and businesses, but this has not happened since 1976.
The water industry owners and the National Farmers Union (NFU) have called on the government to do more to ensure safe water supply in the driest parts of the UK in the face of any future drought.
Water UK, which represents the water industry, calls for the establishment of a new national water network, canals and reservoirs in England to move water from the wettest areas to where it is most needed.
Farmers say they need more government funds, and less planned traditional tape festivals can be built to build their own reservoirs to supply their farms.
Mr. Dean built his own reservoir with five other farmers, including fruit growers. It took four years and cost more than £1 million.
They say it turns out to be crucial that 15% of the stored water has been used this year under dry conditions.
But the team said it was expensive and difficult to obtain a program license.
A government spokesman said it is working with the agricultural sector to improve its water resilience and to build more farmers who can jointly develop their own reservoirs.
He added: “More than £100.4 billion in private sector investment has been received to fund basic infrastructure including nine new reservoirs to help ensure water supply to our future farmers.”
Long-term dry weather is related to what is called "blocking highs" when high-pressure weather systems are stuck.
Scientists don't know if this pattern of blocking is related to climate change.
Global warming is expected to cause more extreme weather events around the world.
Research on our future climate shows that in the UK, there are more and longer periods of dry weather and less rainfall. Winter may be wet and warmer.
This could exacerbate other forms of drought, such as hydrological or agricultural droughts, according to the Metropolitan Office.