Warsaw, Poland - There is still a long way to go in the Polish presidential election, but Sunday’s first round was a wonderful day for political rights and far-right candidates, flashing a red warning sign for Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s moderate administration.
Tusk's candidate, liberal Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski, and conservative rival Karol Nawrocki, supported by the Law and Judiciary Party, led by 13 candidates.
They are very close. According to the final results released Monday morning, Trzaskowski received 31.36% of the vote, and Nawrocki won recognition from U.S. President Donald Trump, winning 29.54% more than expected.
The Poles are now heading to the second round on June 1, which is the result of runoff.
Sunday's election comes the same day when Romania's mayor Nicusor Dan won the presidency of a country, which, like Poland, is located on the north side of NATO and the EU, with Russia fighting a three-year war in Ukraine. Dan managed to overcome the threat of a tough anti-Ukrainian nationalist, providing relief to those in Europe who feared a position that would help Moscow.
"The movement in the next two weeks will be very polarized and cruel - two visions of Poland: pro-EU, liberals and progressive and nationalists, Trump and conservatives," said Piotr Buras, head of the Warsaw Committee of the European Council on Diplomatic Relations.
The contest is not only for the president, but for the office that has the power to influence foreign policy and veto the law. This will also seal the fate of Tusk's efforts to repair the country's relations with European allies after years of rule over the law and justice, which often clashed with Brussels.
Tusk has been trying to reverse changes in the EU's view of undemocratic judiciary, but his efforts have been hampered by outgoing Conservative President Andrzej Duda.
Many centrists and progressive voters are disappointed that Tusk has not fulfilled other promises, such as releasing restricted abortion laws. He has also been criticized for controlling the control of public media from law and justice and the continued politicization of taxpayer-funded public media.
Trzaskowski and Nawrocki were completely wasted when they were heading towards the finish line. They met voters on the street early Monday. Trzaskowski distributed sweet sourdough bread on the streets of Kielce, Nawrocki distributed donuts and took photos with Gdansk supporters.
Trzaskowski ran around in 2020, barely losing to Duda, and has long been considered the leader of the year. After the vote on Sunday, he was unable to confirm.
In a statement to the media, Navoroki announced that he was “energetic and enthusiastic on the way to victory”, adding: “Presumably everyone in Poland saw Rafa Telzaskovsky as an uncould be the candidate.”
Meanwhile, Trzaskowski vowed to fight until the end. "I will try to convince young people and all those who vote, that it is worth the vote for ordinary Poland, not radical Poland," Trzaskowski told reporters in Karzysko-Kamienna.
The political fate of the two men is largely the voters who chose other candidates in the first round and how they will vote is hard to predict. Experts say there is no automatic transfer of votes from some candidates to others. Some people who are not selected as candidates of their choice may not vote at all.
Still, Trzaskowski has a lot to worry about.
More than 20% of voters chose the far right candidate, and their conservative and nationalist worldviews are more closely aligned with the candidates of Navoroki.
Sławomir Mentzen of the Hard-Right Wing Federation won the 14.8% championship, while Grzegorz Braun went further and further to the right, winning over 6%. Both adopted an anti-Semitic and anti-Ukrainian position. Braun uses a fire extinguisher to pop up candles on candlesticks lit during the Hanukkah Jewish holiday in Polish parliament in 2023.
Candidates for the Tusk coalition government gatherings, including the left, centrist and centrist gatherings, won about 40% of the prize.
"Right and far-right candidates gathered up to 54% of the votes - the most surprising result of the first round of the presidential election," Buras said. "This makes Nawrocki a favorable position ahead of the runoff on June 1. He will have a bigger vote to learn from."