A report believes that climate collapse and loss of wildlife are deepening the EU's "chocolate crisis", with one of the six major commodities in the cocoa couple mainly coming from countries that are vulnerable to environmental threats.
According to the visionary transformation of British advisers, more than two-thirds of countries brought to the EU by 2023 from countries that are not fully prepared for climate change.
The analysis found that for the three commodities of cocoa, wheat and corn, two-thirds of imports came from countries with their biodiversity.
The researchers say the damage to food production is worsened by the decline in biodiversity, which reduces farm resilience.
“These are not just abstract threats,” said Camilla Hyslop, the report’s lead author. “They have been entertaining in ways that negatively impact businesses and work, as well as the availability and price of consumers’ food, and they’re just getting worse.”
The researchers mapped trade data from the Eurostat as two environmentally safe rankings to assess the exposure levels of three staple foods, as well as three key inputs to the EU food system.
They took advantage of the climate-ready ranking of Notre Dame Global Adaptation Index, which combines a country’s vulnerability to climate damage with access to financial and institutional support, and the ranking of biodiversity integrity of the Natural History Museum in the UK, which compared the current abundance of current wild species with modern levels.
They found that most imports came from countries where they rank “low and medium” in climate size, while “low and medium” or “middle” in the biodiversity range.
Some foods are particularly exposed. The report found that the EU imported 90% of corn from countries with low and medium climate-ready climates and 67% from countries with medium or low biodiversity integrity.
The report found that for Cocoa, key elements in the European chocolate industry would not grow, with climate preparation import exposure of 96.5% and biodiversity scale of 77%.
The industry has risen in sugar prices, partly due to extreme weather events and a shortage of cocoa supplies. Most of its cocoa comes from West African countries and faces overlapping climate and biodiversity risks.
The report, commissioned by the European Climate Foundation, believes that large chocolate manufacturers should invest in climate adaptation and biodiversity conservation in cocoa-growing countries.
“This is not an altruism or ESG (sustainable finance) action, but an important action on the supply chain,” the author writes. “Ensure that farmers’ supply chains pay a fair price for their produce will allow them to invest in the resilience of their farms.”
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Paul Behrens, an environmental researcher at Oxford University, was also not involved in the study, and his author of the Food and Sustainability textbook said the findings painted a "very worrying picture" of food elasticity.
“Politicians like to see the EU as a food flavor because it produces a lot of its own food,” he said. “But this report shows that the EU is vulnerable to climate and biodiversity risks in some important food supply chains.”
The report found that coffee, rice and soy are at a lower overall risk, but notable are the hot spots of concern. The report found that Uganda provided 10% of its coffee in the EU in 2023, with low climate preparation and low-middle biodiversity integrity.
Joseph Nkandu, founder of Uganda's National Alliance for Coffee Agribusiness and Farm Enterprises, called for more international climate financing to help farmers become more resilient when the weather worsens.
“Weather in Uganda is no longer predictable,” he said. “Heat waves, long dry spells and unstable rain are wilting coffee shrubs and destructive production.”
Marco Springmann, a food researcher at Oxford University, was not involved in the study, saying the food system needs to transfer healthier, more sustainable diets to withstand the climate shock.
“About a third of the grain, basically all imported soybeans are used to feed animals,” he said. “The intention is to make these supply chains more resilient, so the idea is missed that products that support what is largely responsible for trying to protect.”