The Treasury is in a stalemate with some ministers as the IMF suggests Prime Minister Rachel Reeves may make himself more flexible in reaching his own fiscal rules, a proposed layoff for public services.
The guardian learned that the data from the senior police has raised concerns about the upcoming spending review of the ministers, with chief officials of some of the largest units in England and Wales who believe they cannot cut their budgets further.
Many key departments have not yet reached agreements with the Ministry of Finance’s budget, including the Ministry of Home Affairs, Food and Rural Affairs, Energy and Clean Parts, and the Ministry of Housing, Community and Local Government.
The IMF suggested on Thursday that Reeves could improve her fiscal framework, potentially giving the prime minister some political cover to ease spending cuts in response to changes in growth forecasts.
It said the current system was inherited from the last Conservative government and overhauled the public financial assessment of budgetary responsibilities twice a year. It said the Prime Minister should study ways to avoid having to save short-term when economic forecasts fall
But government sources said there is certainly no plan to change the government's "Ironclad" fiscal rules, which suggests that there are already high borrowing figures. A government source said there was a clear cost to further changes to the rules, which proved in the market's response to changes in borrowing rules.
Reeves has adjusted the rules to allow more capital to invest in borrowing - expected to equal £113 billion. Sources said: "When people say, why don't you just change the fiscal rules? Well, we did. We did choose the option of changing the fiscal rules, and that's the £113 billion that doesn't exist."
Currently, Prime Minister Keir Starmer is said to personally favor changing the change, but there are currently no plans to change the number of OBRs forecasts.
As the International Monetary Fund (IMF) suggests, the 10th-place key figure hopes to reduce the forecast to once a year, which will allow Reeves to meet her commitment to conduct only one fiscal activity a year.
OBR downgraded the growth forecast, which removed Reeves' headroom in the spring, meaning the prime minister had to make many cuts in the spring statement, including on welfare.
Health and defense are expected to be the main winners when the spending review is published on June 11, although there will be substantial funding for energy infrastructure including nuclear energy.
Home Ministry sources warned that cutting the department’s budget would make it impossible to meet the key commitments of increasing neighborhood policing and halving violence against women and girls.
The Home Office was told that the UK's largest police force had faced a shortage of £260 million and had to cut 1,700 police officers, PCSOS and staff.
"The police force is already facing budget cuts. In addition, this means stopping any progress made against some of the government's key policies, including cutting tool crime and violence against women and girls in half," a police source said. "Good progress has been made on the VAWG. But, in reality, deeper cuts will put dangerous progress at risk."
The Justice Department's plan has raised concerns about shortening sentences for violent offenders to release prison sentences, despite more probation cash.
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There was also a clash between Reeves and Housing Minister Angela Rayner to fund social housing. Reeves had previously said housing would be one of the main beneficiaries of £113 billion in capital expenditures and the government would begin articulating in a spending review, but did not specify social residence.
The Ministry of Finance has invested £20 billion in affordable housing to bridge the gap between the new plan announced in the expenditure review and the current affordable housing expenditure that will expire in 2026.
When the funding was announced, the £2 billion was described as a "download" of further funds announced in the expenditure review, which Reeves said would mark a generational pass on the construction of parliamentary houses.
However, it is understood that Reiner is not satisfied with the funding level for the next phase of the program.
Energy Minister Ed Miliband is also understood to be still struggling to retain major insulation plans for cash, a key part of the government's net zero strategy, although his department is expected to receive substantial capital investment in energy infrastructure, including nuclear energy.
Labor's previous Conservative government's warm-up plan doubled the parliament's warm-up plan, from £6 billion to £13.2 billion. But sources said it is likely to be cut in the spending review. On the October budget, Reeves announced a £3.4 billion plan for home energy efficiency plans, thermal decarbonization and fuel poverty.
The government responded to concerns expressed at the time, calling the payment a "minimum" and promising spending in the review, which seemed to have been cancelled.
This will make it more difficult to reach the UK's climate target, charities warn. UK GreenPeace activist Lily-Rose Ellis said: “It would be an absolutely terrible decision to cut policies like home insulation, which are solutions to permanently lower people’s bills.”