RBA is expected to drive lower rates of activity in household buyers, but economists doubts about a "prosperous market" | Housing

Once told to evacuate rents in Adelaide, Nicky and Matt began looking to buy properties as they feared the expected string of cuts would make prices soar.

At the auction in early May, the young couple secured their first home in a modest auction for two other buyers.

"I just think it takes us a little longer, but I think we're lucky to find one," Nikki said.

“With lowering interest rates, this could mean more competition is likely to be for the homes we are looking for as well as the homes where prices are rising.”

The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to cut its key interest rates on Tuesday to increase fuel for real estate prices. The market is priced at 95% chance, and the central bank will further reduce the fees, marking the second cut this year.

Lower interest rates can help buyers borrow more money, which in turn can raise house prices – high prices that have been recorded nationwide.

Cut rate

Most economists expect interest rates to drop Tuesday as inflation has fallen within the RBA’s target range.

Consumers are also becoming increasingly pessimistic, which should provide comfort for Royal cars, i.e., tax cuts will not fuel spending.

But expectations for half the cuts in the bump step are evaporating, and many economists have also weakened their expected cuts this year.

Is it all the fault of how Australia's housing market has become so bad? - video

Gareth Aird, head of the Australian economy at Commonwealth Bank, said Australia's job market and wages, coupled with loose tariffs between the United States, would make the Royal River rush to cut taxes quickly and quickly.

The unemployment rate has remained at a steady state of 4.1%, a level that has hovered for more than a year - according to the latest government data, the job outlook continues to grow, with the economy adding 125,000 jobs in March and April.

"Our view is that the well-known inflation dragon has been killed, but we do not believe that RBC will share the unemployment rate (lower) view," Elder wrote.

Now, the market expects only three cuts this year, including Tuesday, while ANZ analysts on Friday said Tuesday’s cuts are no longer confirmed and said they expect only two cuts this year.

Buyer's activity jump

But even lowering the rate is enough to increase housing competition and increase borrower confidence.

Nicola Powell, director of research and economics in the real estate market, said buyers' activity jumped to 4.1% after lowering the official tax rate to 4.1% in February and began promotions in May.

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"Confidence in buyers is slowly coming back," Powell said.

Powell said the rate of inquiries about the domain’s properties slowed down in the three months to April compared to a year ago.

“Once we see more cuts, that’s probably where we’re going to see bigger changes,” she said.

Clearance rate rose to 65% in early May, the highest level since July 2024, according to Cotality data, indicating growing competition for homes.

Terry Rawnsley, an urban economist at KPMG, said the rise in demand should help drive home loan applications and building approvals and disappear early in the year and see the collection of buyers’ interest.

But he said that while the number of people to open up houses and auctions may increase, the still-limited interest rates and poor affordability limits the distance competition will drive prices up.

"It won't be a thriving market in any imagination," Rawnsley said.

“People do stretch in terms of budgets, and people don’t have much upward ability to find more money to live in.”

Cotality Data on Friday pointed out that one-third of homes across the country are worth $1 million or more, about 13 times the average annual income of adult Australians.

Nikki and Matt said they have been watching interest rates and house prices closely in an attempt to beat expected new buyers.

"When you grow up, you think of a million dollar home like a luxury home (but now) a million dollar doesn't bring you a lot anymore," Nikki said.

“We just don’t want the housing market and prices to rise sharply (and) there may be more people in the future, and those who lower interest rates may be looking for.”