Many of the WNBA's biggest stars will face off over the next two months in Unrivaled's first 3-on-3 basketball season. But before the likes of former MVP Breanna Stewart, 2024 WNBA first-team picks Napheesa Collier and Alyssa Thomas, and Brittney Griner and Sabrina Ionescu unveil the new league on Friday, here's a look at the rosters of the six teams striving to be in the mix. Won the first championship on March 17th.
Since we've never seen a game played using Unrivaled's rules, which include an 18-second shot clock and a goal score, among other notable changes to the WNBA, it's impossible to say exactly how things will play out. Still, we can get a feel for the talent on each roster based on my predictions of how these players will perform in the WNBA during the upcoming 2025 season.
I used these projections to rank all six teams' offensive and defensive ratings based on their performance over the past three WNBA seasons, and how often we expected them to win based on those ratings. Let's take a look, starting with one team ranked far ahead of the rest.
.604 expected winning percentage
List: Shakira Austin, Nafessa Collier, Skyler Diggins-Smith, Alyssa Gray, Courtney Williams, Cameron Brinker (IR)
Collier, who co-founded the league with Stewart, is on the roster at defensive end. Although the Moon Owls have a below-average offensive performance, their estimated defensive efficiency is more than 4 points per 100 possessions higher than any other team.
Obviously, that starts with Collier, the 2024 WNBA Defensive Player of the Year. Thanks to high block rate, steal rate, and defensive rebound rate, Austin's defensive shooting ranks second among Unparalleled players, behind only Collier. While none were named to the All-Defensive team, all three of the Lunar Owls' defenders graded as above-average defenders at their respective positions.
One question my prediction can't answer is how having only five players available for the entire season might affect the Lunar Owls, who will lose 2024 No. 2 overall pick Bill Bush after he tore his ACL in June. Link. One more minor injury and the Lunar Owls will be very thin. Still, with this approach, they are clearly the most popular.
.540 expected winning percentage
List: Natasha Cloud, Britney Griner, Sabrina Ionescu, Marina Mabry, Sato Sabally, Katie Lou Samuelson
In contrast, the second-place team is all about offense. The Phantoms have the second-worst defensive shooting of any team, but are far ahead on offense. It starts with Ionescu, who is an unparalleled top point guard. Ionescu has chemistry with Sabally, her three-year teammate at the University of Oregon. The last time the two All-WNBA rookies played together, the Ducks led the nation in offensive efficiency according to HerHoopStats in 2018-19 and 2019-20.
As a balancing force inside, Phantom has Griner, who is shooting a career-high 58% from the field in 2024. In a 3-on-3 game where double-teaming is nearly impossible, Griner recorded the most post-up shots in the WNBA last season, according to Second Spectrum -- which could be difficult to stop.
Mabrey has more firepower off the bench, shooting 38 percent from three-point range last season while ranking in the top 10 in field goal percentage in the WNBA — at least until Mabrey recovers from a calf injury At least for a while. The first two weeks. Crowder, a three-time All-Defensive team pick, gives the Phantoms a stronger defensive option on the perimeter.
.520 expected winning percentage
List: Aliyah Boston, Ray Burrell, Jordin Canada, Dilica Hamby, Ryan Howard, Arik Ogunbowale
In terms of pure scoring, Vinier is hard to beat, with three of the WNBA's top 16 scorers in 2024 in Hamby (17.3 points per game), Howard (17.3 points per game) and Ogunbo Valler (22.2 points per game), and Boston's fourth capable scorer (14.0). The Phantoms are the only team that can match those numbers.
Vinyl coach Teresa Weatherspoon is tasked with making sure Vinyl's scorers are integrated rather than taking turns on offense. The Canadians, who are averaging 5.8 assists per game in an injury-plagued 2024 season, will be key to that mission. But Canada, a career 24 percent three-point shooter, has to shoot 33 percent like she did in 2023 in order for opponents to respect her off-ball shooting.
If Weatherspoon can do that, Vinyl's lineup will have a nice balance of inside and outside power.
.488 expected winning percentage
List: DiJonay Carrington/Aaliyah Edwards/Ricky Jackson/Jewell Lloyd/Brianna Stewart/Courtney Vandersloot
Although Stewart has the best individual projections of any player, she doesn't boast that her roster is as good as her co-founder's. At some point, the Mist's shooting has to be much better than last season, when its players combined to shoot 28.5 percent from 3-point range in the WNBA. No other Invincible team has an overall win rate lower than 32%. Only Jackson (35%) broke that record in 2024's The Mist.
On the plus side, Mist's players have shot much better from the field in the past, shooting 34 percent from 3-point range for their career -- better than the other two teams. For a team that should have great chemistry, whether that return starts is critical. Stewart spent the past two seasons with Vandersloot with the New York Liberty and spent the remainder of her WNBA career with Loyd with the Seattle Storm, winning titles at both stops. .
Mister's defensive shooting is very strong, and it can lock down opponents with the team's perimeter defenders Carrington, Loyd and Stewart. Stewart was selected to the All-Defensive Team six times. Given this potential, I'd bet Mist will outperform this forecast.
.430 expected winning percentage
List: Stephanie Dolson/Tiffany Hayes/Kate Martin/Keira McBride/Alyssa Thomas/Jackie Young
There's a lot to like about Laces' lineup. Thomas is one of the WNBA's best non-shooters, finishing second in 2023 MVP voting, and his shooting numbers are enviable, hitting 39% from three last season and 37% for his career.
Thomas' ability to play point center allows the Laces to pair her with McBride and Young in a starting lineup with plenty of shot creation and playmaking ability. Last season's Sixth Player of the Year, Hayes and Dolson are both reliable backups.
From a statistical standpoint, the lack of rim protection for the laces is a big drawback. Their lineup combined for just 63 blocks last season, less than half of the 140 blocks the Moon Owls had with five healthy players. It remains to be seen how important rim protection will be in 3-on-3 situations compared to Thomas' ability to switch defenses.
.418 expected winning percentage
List: Kallia Cooper/Chelsea Gray/Lexi Hull/Angel Reese/Azzura Stevens/Britney Sykes
Rose's lineup will be an interesting test case for the value of three-on-three efficiency. Cooper's ability to create his own shot, Gray's playmaking and Reese's offensive rebounding ability are all elite, but no one has an above-average scoring efficiency heading into the 2024 WNBA season. (Gray will be very efficient in 2022 and 2023.)
Hull was very consistent from beyond the arc last season, thanks in part to Hull's post-Olympic shooting spree. Inside, their players combined to shoot just 45 percent. No other Invincible team has a combined score lower than 48%. However, if the shot clock is shorter, Copper and Gray's mid-range shots may become relatively more valuable. It will be interesting to see how Reese's record-setting offensive rebounding translates into unrivaled play.