Among the four major sports leagues in the United States, the NFL is often known for having the most mistakes in successful teams. Due to this phenomenon, every fan can enter the season, hoping their team will win everything. For the last team a year ago, even that.

As the NFL rearranged eight four teams in 2002, 25 teams were ranked first in their division in one season. There is no such team in 2024, but the Texan in 2023 is the most recent example. They improved from 2022's 3-13-1 record and AFC Southern Championship.

There are clear metrics that can help us point out which teams are most likely to move from the worst to the first. But remember that sometimes teams can take a huge step forward without meeting these standards. The Commanders didn't go from the worst of last season as they were behind the Eagles at NFC East, but of course no one expected rookie Jayden Daniels to lead them to a 12-5 record.

Let's browse the eight teams that completed their last place in each division in 2024 to rank them with the odds of winning the division in the 2025 season. These odds come from an initial simulation of ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI), which is based primarily on the total number of wins in the betting market combined with the schedule for each team. I will rank in order, starting with a team that has achieved opposite feats (worst in their division) over the past two seasons.

Jump to the team:
chi | CLE | LV | NE
No | NYG | sf | 10

2024 records: 6-11

Chances of victory: 35.8% (partition first)
Playoff chances: 62.4% (third in NFC)

The 49ers' best odds are by far the worst, for three main reasons: schedule, health, it's not That Last season was not good.

San Francisco ranks ninth in the FPI. FTN's DVOA (Defense Adjustment Value Over Average) scored less than 49 people, but despite the failed record, they still ranked 14th. With a DVOA of 6.7%, they could easily be a team with a loss of 11, dating back to 1978.

The 49ers will return a large number of key players in the season's injury, including running back Christian McCaffrey, receiver Brandon Aiyuk and departure tackle Trent Williams. The Lions' defense has dominated the headlines due to injuries in 2024, but the 49ers lead the NFL to lose injuries in adjusted games. This is a clear indicator of improvement in 2025.

Ultimately, the 49ers have the easiest timeline, which is why the FPI leans toward them winning NFC West over the Rams, with the RAMs rating higher overall. NFC South and AFC South have a simple schedule outside of their divisional games, and the 49ers can also play the Giants, Browns and Bears. The Rams' game against the Eagles, Ravens and Lions is even more difficult.

2024 records: 5-12

Chances of victory: 14.9% (4th in partition)
Playoff chances: 36.1% (10th in NFC)

The Bears ranked 22nd in the FPI last season, but they believe that entering the 2025 season is above average. That's because Caleb Williams should improve in his second year center, and the Bears add a lot of talent to the offensive line to provide better protection.

There is also a lot of optimism about new coach Ben Johnson, but it is important to remember that teams with new coaches and coordinators tend to take a step back in their first season. We probably won't notice this, as new coaches are usually added after a particularly bad season, which makes a slightly improved despicable simple return.

According to my DVOA ranking, the biggest problem they have with the Bears back this season is that they have the second highest schedule in the NFL (the hardest schedule afterward). The other three NFC North teams (Vikings, Lions and Packers) won the playoffs in 2024, with only Minnesota expected to drop in 2025.

Outside of the divisional game, the Bears must face the North and the NFC East. They also have to go on their way to San Francisco and Las Vegas – both teams on this roster, but they should be much better this season.

2024 records: 4-13

Chances of victory: 14.0% (third place in the partition)
Playoff chances: 33.9% (AFC ranked 12th)

ESPN's statistics believe Drake Maye. In 2024, he ranked 17th among the qualifying quarterbacks with a 58.6 QBR as QBR tried to separate the quarterback from his surroundings. The surroundings should be better this season, but they are much better?

New England has a lot of new faces, first of all, improvements from Mike Vrabel’s head coach. There are new offensive wingers (rookie Will Campbell and veteran Morgan Moses) and rookie skilled players (running back to Treveton Henderson and wide receiver Kyle Williams). The defensive type also includes winger Milton Williams, cornerback Carlton Davis III and defender Robert Spiran. Once he fully recovered from last year's ACL tear, he also had a new first-range receiver Stefon Diggs.

With all this increased talent, coupled with a simple return to the mean, the Patriots are almost guaranteed to be better than they were a year ago. Their schedule is also simple, with an average DVOA ranking of 28th based on opponents.

The problem is not the new face, but the old face. That is, the old faces are still wearing buffalo uniforms: Josh Allen, Christian Benford and Matt Milano. According to the FPI, the bill has the best chance to win any NFL team (65%) division, which makes the Patriots more likely to shoot with a universal card bid.

2024 records: 5-12

Chances of victory: 11.6% (4th in partition)
Playoff chances: 18.4% (NFC ranked 15th)

The Saints died the last in the 2025 FPI, but they have a better chance of winning their own divisions than the other teams on this list because NFC South is so weak. Currently, the Pirates rank 14th in the FPI, with the Falcons 26 and the Panthers rank 28th.

The reason New Orleans projected to the bottom is partly due to the fact that rookie QB Tyler Shoough can start after Derek Carr retires. Despite Jayden Daniels' historic 2024 season, rookie quarterbacks are still considered FPI negative. You can't expect a rookie QB to have a strong season, especially if they have a real second-round pick like Shought.

Although the Saints' offensive projection is 31st in the FPI, their defensive projection is 32nd. The department is expected to be quite old, including safety Tyrann Mathieu (33), defender Demario Davis (36) and defensive end Cameron Jordan (July 36).

2024 records: 3-14

Chances of victory: 8.9% (fourth point)
Playoff chances: 14.8% (AFC ranked 14th)

Again, I have to repeat the article I wrote about the Saints: You can't expect a good season for a rookie QB. Yes, for the first overall choice like Cameron Ward, even that. After all, Chicago's Williams ranked 28th in QBR's 32 qualifying quarterbacks last season.

Again, Will Levis died last season at 32 qualifying quarterbacks in QBR. So, even a season where Ward averages are below average, Tennessee may improve.

Like New Orleans, the Titans have bigger problems on the other side of the ball - their 30-day defensive program at DVOA. There is a lot of hope here in a big season where experienced cornerback L'Arius Sneed bounced off an injury or bounced from an unspoken season like Edge Rusher Dre'mont Jones. But the Titans really haven't gained much defensive talent this offseason and have not drafted many contributors in recent years. They have not had a first-round pick on defense since Jeffery Simmons in 2019.

2024 records: 4-13

Chances of victory: 7.1% (partition fourth)
Playoff chances: 23.9% (AFC ranked 13th)

See, the Bills and Ravens have had a bad time in the past few seasons trying to outperform Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs. Do you want the Raiders to surpass him in the regular season?

When we think both the Broncos and the Chargers were both playoff teams a year ago, the Raiders seem to have fewer ideas to complete in the first place. If Kansas City falls due to injury or other reasons, Los Angeles or Denver has a better chance to lead the NFC West.

However, the idea of ​​Las Vegas as a playoff contender isn't necessarily ridiculous, especially due to the addition of veteran QB Geno Smith. Although Las Vegas ranked sixth in overall odds, it ranked fourth in playoff odds of all eight teams.

2024 records: 3-14

Chances of victory: 3.3% (partition fourth)
Playoff chances: 10.1% (16th place in NFC)

The FPI's Giants don't have lower Giants, which is a bit surprising, as they currently ranked 31st in the NFL before the 2024 season. But their QB room - with Russell Wilson, Jameis Winston and Jaxson Dart - should improve last season's choices. I also wish they had better defensive abilities, had very low operating rates last season and added an exciting pass rush to Edge Rusher Abdul Carter.

The problem with New York is the schedule, which, according to the FPI and the expected DVOA, rated it as the toughest time in the NFL. This started with their own division games and now there is a strong team of commanders as well as games against NFC North and AFC West. In addition, the Giants play the 49ers and the Patriots, and the above mentioned teams that should be better in 2025.

2024 records: 3-14

Chances of victory: 2.7% (partition fourth)
Playoff chances: 9.8% (AFC ranked 16th)

Hey, this is FPI's favorite currently to get home with the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. This projection makes sense because the Browns have a tough schedule and quarterback room. It's hard to imagine that their rookies Dillon Gabriel or Shedeur Sanders didn't beat the team in Joe Flacco and Kenny Pickett until the middle of the season. This year we will learn more about the Browns’ impact on the future, rather than trying to make it to the playoffs now.

The only highlight of the Browns is their defense, which is probably better than a year ago. They fell from their defensive DVOA in 2023 to 25th place a year ago, and almost always rebounded subsequently. After all, Myles Garrett is still there.