By raising harsh, uncompromising demands in peace negotiations with Ukraine while continuing to beat it with waves of missiles and drones, Russian President Vladimir Putin is sending a clear message: he will only accept his terms and settlement and will continue to fight until they meet.
Meanwhile, he tried to avoid angering U.S. President Donald Trump, praising his diplomacy and proclaiming Moscow's openness to peace talks - even if he sets the maximum political conditions for Kiev and the West to reject.
Trump once promised to end the 3-year-old war within 24 hours, revealing the U.S. policy of isolating Russia by calling with Putin and destruction of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. At the same time, however, Trump warned Putin not to "click me" and threatened Moscow's sanctions if he did not support his peace proposal.
In recent days, Trump said he had lost patience with Putin, announcing that the Russian leader was "crazy" by launching an air attack on Ukraine. He also said: "What Vladimir Putin didn't realize is that if it wasn't for me, there were a lot of really bad things going on in Russia, and I mean it was really bad. He was playing with fire!"
Dmitry Medvedev, a former Russian president who served as deputy director of Putin's Security Council, fired: "I only know one very bad thing - World War II. I hope Trump understands that!"
Fyodor Lukyanov, an analyst familiar with Kremlin thinking in Moscow, said Putin and Trump played a "psychological game" with Trump, and both of them believed they knew each other.
“Putin’s strategy is clearly based on the assumption that the issue has fewer priorities for his interlocutors, whose interlocutors want to get rid of it one way or another, and for the Russian side, it makes little sense,” Lukyanov wrote a comment. “In this logic, people who think of it as less important will eventually make concessions.”
While Ukraine's European allies urged Trump to force it to accept a ceasefire, there are concerns that Trump could eventually keep the United States away from the conflict. If the United States stops or reduces military aid to Kiev, it will seriously erode Ukraine's combat capabilities.
Kiev has encountered a shortage of weapons, especially air defense systems, making it increasingly vulnerable to Russian missiles and drone attacks.
In the front line of more than 1,000 kilometers (more than 600 miles), exhausted Ukrainian troops are facing increasing pressure from Russia. This month, Russian troops accelerated their slow push in the Dotsk region, the focus of Moscow's offense, wearing out the Ukrainian defense at its fastest pace since last fall. Russia has also expanded its attacks in Sumi and Kharkif northeastern regions after Putin promised to establish a buffer zone at the border.
Many observers hope that Russia will expand its offensive in the summer to try to capture more land and bring more severe conditions to peace.
Jack Watling of the Royal Joint Service College in London said: "Moscow believes that Ukraine's leverage on Ukraine will be established over time and that the Russian army will intensify its actions due to Trump's strong hinting that he will withdraw from negotiations." He predicted that Russia would step up efforts to adopt all Donetsk areas while also imposing bombing campaigns.
"The Kremlin will want to raise a deteriorating situation that, as negotiations continue, signals to Europe that the rear is unsafe to prevent European troops from imposing troops in the countryside," Watling said in an analysis.
Sergei Markov, a pro-Kremlin-based Moscow analyst, said the long-term offense has not begun to be serious because Russia is cautious not to anger Trump. "If Kiev derails, the Russian army will launch a major offensive," he said.
Putin demanded Ukraine withdraw its troops from Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia and Helsen, four regions that Russia illegally annexed in September 2022 but never fully controlled. Kiev and its allies rejected the demand, but the Russian delegation reportedly repeated the request during its May 16 talks with Ukraine in Istanbul.
The talks are the first since negotiations were held in mid-opening week of the war, and it was 30 days accepted by Kiev after Putin effectively rejected Trump's proposed 30-day armistice. Russia has stopped this ceasefire and mobilized Ukraine and frozen Western arms supply.
Putin proposed negotiations to discuss the conditions for a possible truce. Trump prompted Kiev to accept the offer quickly, but negotiations did not make immediate progress, with only a deal to exchange 1,000 prisoners.
Russia proposed another round of talks in Istanbul on Monday and said it would provide conditions for a memorandum to end hostilities. It refused to share the file before negotiations.
Some observers see the negotiations as Putin’s attempt to ease Trump’s growing impatientness.
"Putin has designed a way to provide Trump with temporary, tangible results of Washington's peace efforts without any real concessions," said Tatiana Stanovaya of Carnegie Russia's European Center.
Faced with the West's allegations of stagnation, the Kremlin replied that the conflict could not be resolved quickly and emphasized the need to resolve its "root cause".
When Putin invaded Ukraine, he said such moves were needed to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO and protecting the country's Russian speakers - Kiev and its Western allies strongly rejected Russian speakers to cover up the act of unprivileged aggression.
In addition to these requirements, Putin hopes to limit Ukraine’s sovereignty, including the size of the Ukrainian army, and to allow Kief to end the glory of Moscow’s nationalist leaders who believed to be glorious of Ukraine’s World War II, some of whom supported Nazi Germany’s invading forces in Kremlin in kremlin in kremlin in kremlin in eviet.
To emphasize that Moscow would impose its initial demands on Moscow, Putin appointed his aide Vladimir Medinsky to lead the Russian delegation in Istanbul. He also led the Russian side in the 2022 talks. Kyiv reportedly asked the United States to encourage Putin to replace him.
Born in Ukraine, the 54-year-old spoken, professional bureaucrat, has appeared in the Kremlin, a series of books that reveal alleged Western plots of Russia.
After the May 16 talks, in an interview with Russian state television, Medesky pointed out that the 18th-century war between Russia and Sweden lasted for 21 years, indicating that Moscow is ready to fight for a long time until the requirements are met.
“History repeats itself in extraordinary ways,” he said.