Poland's presidential runoff could have a profound impact on its position in Europe - either cementing the country's hard-working seat on the EU's top seat or heralding a return to a completely tricky era.

Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski faced historian Karol Nawrocki in a neck-to-neck match on Sunday, putting Poland's liberal vision at the heart of European policymaking, against nationalists, radical citizens, and the EU's crucial position.

Trzaskowski is backed by Prime Minister Donald Tusk's Citizen Platform Alliance, which won parliamentary elections in 2023. Navoroki has been supported by an opposition law and justice (PIS) party, which has been in power for eight years.

Analysts say that despite the limited impact of the Polish president on foreign policy, Navaroki's victory will inevitably be - ultimately limiting Poland's European ambitions.

"We are not talking about direct policy consequences," said Piotr Buras of the European Council on IQ. "But if Tusk's candidate Trzaskowski loses information, it's that the Poles reject him and his government."

Buras said Tusk was deprived of legitimacy and “will work to play a major role in the EU he began playing”. "His government will be weaker and the room for maneuver will be narrowed. It's about Poland's ability to play an important role in the EU stage."

Tusk's election victory two years ago marked the beginning of Poland's return to the European fold, a difficult condition for the conservative rule of two populist nations, during which Warsaw repeatedly clashed with Brussels due to the concerns of the rule of law.

PIS also regularly engages unnecessary battles with Germany, and in many EU debates, with Hungary’s liberal government, Viktor Orbán, the group’s host litigation further alienating Poland from the mainstream of Europe.

The return of Ivory was to revoke the promise of reforms in most PIS eras, leading to changes in relations, and the EU quickly canceled more than 10 billion euros of funds, which freezes retaliation against Poland's retreat against democratic norms.

Warsaw, thanks to its booming economy, growing prosperity and its strategic importance to Russia's resistance to Ukraine wars, turned itself into one of the EU's most influential capitals, one of the best partners in Berlin and Paris in just two years.

But it will only be completed when Tusk is able to carry out these key reforms (especially revoking PIS’s politicization of the court system) that its entire return is blocked by the outgoing PIS’s unanimous president, Andrzej Duda.

The Polish president has little executive power. They serve as commander-in-chief of the armed forces and therefore can seek to develop security policies - they have the power to veto legislation or to transfer it to the Constitutional Tribunal, effectively delaying legislation.

That's the privilege of Duda's workouts many times - Nawrocki tried to use his position to destroy ivory at every turn ahead of the 2027 parliamentary elections, but could expect more radical and confrontational.

"The victory of Nawrocki will give the stalemate that exists between the government and the president since 2023," said Nicolai von Ondarza of the German International Security Office (SWP).

"This will change the political calculations within Poland itself - it will focus on the focus of Europe, which is actually the basis for Poland's re-relationship with the EU, an unfulfilled commitment to the law."

While EU leaders are unlikely to put screws on ivory (“The last thing they have to do is to weaken him further,” Von Ondarza said that the prime minister’s influence in key decisions, such as the group’s future budget, will inevitably weaken.

Aleks Szczerbiak of the University of Sussex said Nawrocki would support the PIS government's approach to "building an alternative EU alliance" such as with Hungary and Slovakia "as the most effective way to promote the interests of Poland."

Szczerbiak added that Nawrocki will certainly also prioritize maintaining close ties with the United States, saying it is Poland's only reliable security guarantor and "opposes the development of European defense capabilities outside of NATO buildings".

Bras agrees: “Nawrocki’s support for Tusk has shifted from dependence on the United States to strategic security in Europe.

Tensions between Ivory and Navoroki will be exacerbated by the PM's already existing divisions within the different central, progressive left and conservative coalitions, and Ukraine has become a victim of political division.

Poland has broad consensus on the need to continue to provide military aid to Ukraine. However, Ivory himself must acknowledge public concerns about willing alliances, saying Poland will not participate, and Ukraine's EU membership.

Nawrocki developed further, tapping into Polish anti-Ukrainian sentiment towards refugees and strongly criticized Kiev and its EU and NATO for joining the plan. "As with immigration and climate, these issues are more politicized."

But, Buras concluded, the biggest threat is long-term. "Navoroki's role is to destroy the ivory, make it difficult for him to rule and pave the way for PIS in 2027," he said. "This could be a realistic prospect that is very important for Europe."