Portuguese trend on the far right, moderate conservatives win election

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The far-right Chiga Party defeated Portugal’s bipartisan double monopoly in the parliamentary elections won by the right-wing Democratic League (AD) in the Council Center, by waving a wave of anti-immigration sentiment.

Chega's populist leader André Ventura held a record share of the voting with the Socialist Party among elected lawmakers early Monday and remained unchanged with the Socialist Party's neck and neck, resulting in 226 of 230 parliamentary seats.

The result means Portugal has joined the list of Western European countries, among which far-right parties are either the second largest political force or include Germany, Sweden, Finland and Belgium. In the Netherlands, the far-right Geert Wilders won the 2023 election.

"Today, we can confidently announce that the two-party system in Portugal is over" because he announced that "chega has become the second largest party."

However, the result is unlikely to give him power, as Prime Minister Luís Montenegro is a moderate conservative who refuses to make any deals with Chega.

In an election arising from conflict of interest allegations against the prime minister, Montenegro's ad performed better than the last vote 14 months ago, but fell again in the parliamentary majority. This means he may form another minority government.

The surge in Chega means it will have more influence and will push ads to the right after a campaign, which was marked by rivals as Xenophobe, declared “Portuguese is overwhelmed by illegal immigration and corruption.”

Ventura, a former student and football expert, has increased his partisan share to 22.6% from 18% in the last election in March 2024.

Although the Socialist Party won slightly higher turnout in Bichega, its leader Pedro Nuno Santos resigned to oversee its worst election performance since 1987. The socialists tied with Ventura's party in 58 parliamentary seats, while the ads won 86 titles.

Until later this week, the electorate of four unannounced seats was the result of Portuguese living, and their voters were Portuguese living. In 2024, Chega won two of these seats, while the Socialists won one.

The rise of Chega was founded in 2019, a public uneasy about immigration, and in a 10MN country, the foreign-born population has jumped from 4% in 2017 to 15% of the total.

The sign that managed advertising rose 3.4 percentage points to 32.1%, a sign that was not hurt by the Montenegro scandal, which was damaged when he voted for his confidence in the so-called failure to divest stake in the business he founded, the government collapsed.

To stop the rise of Chega, the Montenegro government ended the “open door” immigration policy of the former socialist government and introduced a stricter “regulated and humanized” approach.

Marina Costa Lobo, director of the Institute of Social Sciences at Lisbon, said Chega grew up in elections in 2022 and 2024, by promoting voters to the center-right voters and mobilizing people who previously abstained, but this time it did a good job in traditionally left-leaning areas.

"Socialists have managed to retain a less educated and lower-income voter in 2024. These groups in other European countries tend to vote for the far right," she said. "It seems that a considerable number of these voters may have moved to Chega this time."

Montenegro was able to take office last year because the Socialist Party abstained from the main parliamentary formed by the government - he will need to do the same thing to secure a new term.

Socialist Santos said he would leave his successor and decide whether to help Montenegro continue to rule.