Poland's new president puts EU billion dollar and trade targets at risk

Officials say Poland's right-facing EU-facing trade ambitions hurt the EU and has been subjected to billions of euros of funds dedicated to Warsaw.

Right-wing nationalist Karol Nawrocki's victory in the Polish presidential election shocked Brussels, fearing that under Prime Minister Donald Tusk it would fatally hurt the country's pro-EU government, which requires a Stimy reform to obtain EU funds and prompted Warsaw to prompt Warsaw to help block landmark deals in South America's Mersier countries.

Nawrocki, a former football hooligan with no political experience, ran under the slogan of "Poland No. 1" and criticized EU policies on climate change, Ukraine and social issues.

“Let’s help others, but let’s take care of our own citizens first,” Nawrocki, backed by U.S. President Donald Trump, said during the campaign.

Orsolya Raczova, Central and Eastern Europe analyst at Eurasia, said Tusk's reform agenda will now "paralyze...Nawrocki will prevent him from implementing an overhaul of the judiciary as required by the EU."

Raczova added: "Nawrocki will join other sovereignist leaders led by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán to resist Brussels."

After eight years of European skeptic domination, Brussels elected Tusk in October 2023, a welcome to the pro-EU government of Poland, the sixth largest economy and most important Eastern side member.

Warsaw protesters protest EU policy ©Wojtek Radwanski /AFP /Getty Images

Brussels said the nomination of Navoroki by the former government led by the right-wing Law and Justice (PIS) party, endangering the rule of law and the independence of the country's judiciary, causing billions of dollars to freeze EU funds.

After the Tusk government pledged reforms to strengthen the independence of the judiciary, the European Commission unlocked 137 billion euros of EU funds in 2024, which funded specifically for Poland.

To date, Brussels has paid more than 20 billion euros to the EU's 6 billion euros share of post-pandemic recovery funds, and in the EU's regular regional funds, nearly 7 billion euros out of 76.5 billion euros, which have measured all judges in terms of changes in trials such as those in controversial trials against the government.

But the changes were not signed into law due to the veto power of outgoing President Andrzej Duda - his successor vowed to continue.

Senior EU officials told FT that Nawrocki's vow once again announced that these reforms would be challenged again, questioning Warsaw's continued commitment to strengthening the rule of law, which is the basis for EU cash flows. Nawrocki took office in August.

"Everything is based on the idea that when the president is aligned with the ivory, Poland will undergo a comprehensive reform and if not, everything will go sideways... Now the situation is going sideways," said Jakub Jaraczewski, research coordinator at Democtencity International, a Berlin-based non-governmental organization.

Despite the limited executive power of the Polish president, the office could block legislation passed by parliament and nominate major state officials such as the head of the central bank. Tusk will need a three-fifth majority to bypass Nawrocki's veto - he wouldn't be able to reach that level without the vote of PIS.

European Parliament Green Member Daniel Freund said the committee put the funds in Poland "prematurely".

"The release of funds is subject to the submission of plans, not until the reforms actually take effect," Flund told the British Bank.

He urged the Commission to take action without passing reforms. "The first step is to put pressure on the Polish government to take the necessary measures," he said. "The second step is to freeze the funds when the president takes real action without signing them."

A spokesman for the committee told the UK, "We cannot speculate on the future decision of Poland's president-elect."

"We are confident that the reforms initiated by the Polish government will continue and will continue," the spokesperson said.

In addition to Navoroki's veto ability, his election will severely undermine the power of ivory and hopefully force him to avoid potentially unpopular policies such as supporting the Mercosur trade deal. Polish farmers are worried that cheap food imported from South America will undermine competition and lower EU safety standards. Polish peasant party in Tusk's alliance.

As France also opposes ratification of the largest trade deal ever, Ireland, Austria and the Netherlands are skeptical, Poland can help create obstacles in minorities.

Nawrocki will join Orbán and Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico as a key anti-EU voice in the region. His victory was also achieved before the parliamentary elections held in the Czech Republic in October, when populist Andrej Babiš led the polls in the polls, raising concerns about the growing anti-Inruthers feeling among voters in the eastern group.

Officials said that while Navoloki's campaign also criticized EU financial and military support for Ukraine, such rhetoric did not expect such rhetoric to lead to a concrete change in Poland's strong pro-Keve positioning due to widespread condemnation of Russia's war in the country.

But other domestic issues related to EU policy can also be compromised, officials and analysts said.

"This election result may mean that neither central projects of the Ivory Government can be implemented … and undermine pro-European and democratic Poland," said René Popasi, a German SPD member of the European Parliament. "Now, this will make it difficult for the Ivory Government to rebuild the rule of law in this important EU member state."

But among the European Feeling Party in the EU, others celebrate. Italy's far-right vice-Prince Matteo Salvini praised "good news from Poland".

Nawrocki was “rewarded by the freedom and democratic vote of Polish citizens and dealing with the due respect of the bureaucrats in Brussels and all media that have called him extremist for several days”, Salvini wrote on Monday.

Other reports by Amy Kazmin in Rome and Andy