Warsaw, Poland - The war next door to Ukraine. Immigration pressure on the border. Russia's destruction throughout the region. Suspicion of the United States' commitment to European security.

Security is vaguely visible in Sunday's Polish presidential election. Therefore, questions about the country's strength as a democracy and its position in the EU. One of the most important tasks of the new president will be to maintain strong ties with the United States, which is crucial to the survival of a country in an increasingly volatile community.

The 38 million voters in the Central European country will vote to replace the conservative incumbent Andrzej Duda, whose second and last five-year term ends in August.

With 13 candidates, a decisive first-round victory is unlikely. Some people seem unpopular or extreme, expressing open pro-putin or anti-Semitism. A television debate this week delayed nearly four hours. There are calls for raising the threshold to qualify for competitions.

Runoff on June 1 was generally expected, and polls showed a showdown between Warsaw Liberal Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski and conservative historian Karol Nawrocki, a supporter of the Law and Judicial Party, which ruled Poland between 2015 and 2023.

Poland's geography makes elections even more important. Poland signed contracts with Russia's Kaliningrad Disprave, Belarus and war-tor-tor-hardened Ukraine, which Poland occupies a key position on the eastern side of NATO and is a key logistics hub for military aid to Ukraine.

There are concerns that if Russia prevailed in its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, it could target other countries controlled by Moscow about 35 years ago. Against this backdrop, elections will shape Warsaw's foreign policy at a time when transatlantic unification and European defenses are intensifying.

Both leading candidates support U.S. military involvement in Europe. Trzaskowski emphasizes deepening ties with the EU, while Navoroki is more suspicious of Brussels and promotes a nationalist agenda.

When law and justice are in power, it repeatedly clashes with EU institutions in terms of judicial independence, media freedom and immigration.

Although Poland is a parliamentary democracy, the presidency has a significant impact. The president serves as commander-in-chief, has veto power, shapes foreign policy, and plays a symbolic role in national discourse.

Under Duda's leadership, the office largely put forward a conservative agenda of law and justice. Since Donald Tusk's centrist coalition came to power in late 2023, Duda has blocked key reforms aimed at restoring judicial independence and restoring relations with the EU.

“For those who are ruling the coalition and those who are related to the future of Polish democracy, the stake is huge,” said Jacek Kucharczyk, chairman of the Public Affairs Institute of Warsaw’s think tank. “It’s about democratic reform and restoration of the rule of law – only the cooperation of the next president can happen.”

Kucharczyk pointed out that elections are also key to law and justice, "its future as a dominant political force may depend on the outcome."

Both Trzaskowski and Nawrocki promised to support Ukraine and maintain strong defensive ties, but their vision for Poland drastically differentiates the role of the EU and domestic social policies.

Trzaskowski, 52, is a former presidential contender and a senior figure in the civic platform of the centrist party led by Tusk. He is running on a pro-European platform and promises to defend judicial independence and rebuild democratic institutions.

Supporters describe him as a modernist representing an international, outward-looking Poland. He speaks a foreign language, has been parading in the LGBTQ+ parade and has attracted young city voters. Trzaskowski's progressive view highlights the evolution of a more conservative civic platform.

Nawrocki, 42, represents how parties that support his law and justice turn right to support a sharp sensation on the right.

Nawrocki, who is not a member of the Law and Judicial Party, is responsible for the state-supported National Memorial Institute, which investigates crimes in the Nazi and communist eras. He was praised by conservatives for demolishing Soviet monuments and promoting patriotic education, but he faced criticism for his lack of experience and anti-Germany and other resentments. He was also involved in some scandals.

Earlier this month, Navoroki met with U.S. President Donald Trump at the White House, a symbolic moment welcomed by the legal and justice media to prove that he will be the best man in maintaining strong ties with the United States. Critics believe this is a Trump administration intervention.

Romanian nationalist George Simion joined Nawrocki in this week's campaign, facing a vote for the presidency on Sunday. Critics view Simon as pro-Russian, leading to Tasker tweeting: "Russia is happy. Navoloki and his pro-Russian Romanian rival George Simien were in the same stage five days before the presidential elections in Poland and Romania. Everything is clear."

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AP Video reporter Rafał Niedzielski contributed to the report.