Islamabad, Pakistan - Last week's fatal attack on controversial tourists in Kashmir has brought tensions between India and Pakistan. India accused Pakistan of supporting the Pakistani alleged massacre.
Nuclear-weapon neighbors have downgraded diplomatic ties, threatening to suspend key treaties and expel each other’s nationals. It was the biggest breakdown of the biggest relationship since 2019, when suicide car bombs hit 40 Indian soldiers in Kashmir. India accused Pakistan, which Pakistan rejected.
India suggests the possibility of an imminent but limited military strike. Pakistan said this would respond militarily.
Over the years, India and Pakistan have established nuclear arsenals. But their purpose is to stop the war, not to start the war.
India has a "no first use" policy. This means that only nuclear weapons that are launched against Indian troops or Indian territory will be retaliated against.
Pakistan has different policies, full spectrum deterrents, designed to leverage tactical nuclear weapons to deal with nuclear threats and conventional military attacks from larger, stronger, and richer regional opponents.
If Pakistan feels threatened, Pakistan does not use nuclear weapons to exclude it first. However, Pakistan cannot afford to launch a nuclear war with India due to its neighbor's highest firepower. In the past, it lost three conventional wars.
Instead, Pakistan uses its nuclear arsenal to stop India’s invasion or mass attacks.
Neither country knows what or how many nuclear weapons the other party has. India conducted its first nuclear test in 1974. Pakistan conducted its first nuclear test in 1988.
Think tanks show Pakistan has 170 warheads, while India has 172 warheads. Some analysis suggests that Pakistan may have more, about 200.
Despite decades of hostility and suspicion, India and Pakistan signed a convention that prevented them from attacking each other’s nuclear facilities.
As part of the prohibition of nuclear facilities and facilities attacks, the two sides have a list of nuclear facilities and facilities in January each year. They exchanged lists for 34 consecutive years.
However, neither of these countries are signatories to the Global Non-Proliferation Treaty aimed at preventing the spread of nuclear weapons and weapons technology.
The outbreak between India and Pakistan has seen targeted attacks and retaliation, slowly escalating while allowing both sides to take a step back. Border skirmishes are common.
But this time there is a lot of pressure on India domestically, as most of the victims were Indians last week.
In 2019, India had a dawn air strike after suicide car bombing, saying it was a terror training camp targeting Pakistan. Pakistan later shot down two Indian fighter jets from Kashmir and captured a pilot. The pilot was eventually released and things began to normalize.
But this episode shows that India is willing to enter Pakistani airspace and launch a strike, bringing new barriers to retaliation.
In the current crisis, both sides have not taken huge action yet. Pakistan reported seeing Indian fighter jets on its airspace and shooting down spy drones that said they belonged to India.
Revenge from any country could be along the line of control, the de facto border separates Kashmir, targeting army infrastructure or armed facilities. This strategy has the risk of misestimation, as any casualties can exacerbate family sentiment.
With the wars in the Middle East and Ukraine, and a world in economic chaos, the international community has little interest in wars in South Asia.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said he would engage with India and Pakistan and urged other foreign governments to step in and calm down.
Pakistan's wealthy allies in the Gulf expressed a desire for stability and security, while India has contacted G7 members about the crisis.
China is the most important player in the region, urging both sides to show restraint. The United Nations also called on Pakistan and India to conduct publicity. In short, no one wants this.