Manny Pacquiao will end nearly four years of interruption by challenging Mario Barrios at MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas on July 19.
“I’m back,” Pacquiao spoke on social media to make his comeback officially announced. “Let’s make history!”
Pacquiao (62-8-2, 39 KOS) was in the square circle, the Filipino boxing legend made a unanimous decision to Yordenis ugas in August 2021. He was 42 years old at the time. He will be 46 when he faces Barrios through the ropes.
Pacquiao, who will be inducted into the International Boxing Hall of Fame on June 8, has not yet settled his motivation for a decision to end his retirement decision, but what he calls history is the opportunity to break his own record as the oldest 147-pound world champion (40 years, 215 days) of boxing team. Historically, only two boxers have won the world championship battle at the age of 46 and over - George Foreman (46, 102 days) and Bernard Hopkins, who won four championship battles after his 46th birthday, winning 49 and 94 days in his last title title.
The foreman could beat his opponents at his age, while Hopkins relied more on skill and defense in his 40s. Pacquiao relies heavily on athleticism to win the battle, and his once fierce speed significantly slowed down in his last battle.
To illustrate Pacquiao's decline, he lost 10 times per round, seven less per round in the six games after the age of 40, and his six battles compared to his output in the last 14 games before this - according to Compubox (Compubox), his output rate is 4-2 with only 1 KO.
Beating Barrios would be a huge mountain – literally and symbolically the only eight-pointer champion for the boxing team. Barrios, listed as 6 feet at 6 feet, is Pacquiao's highest opponent in 1995.
But while Barrios (29-2-1, 18 kos) is much more than that, father time will be the most difficult challenge Pacquiao overcomes in the ring.
Pacquiao reunited with legendary coach Freddie Roach for his comeback, while the dynamic duo will work together to develop a game plan to eliminate frustration. But boxing is a sport that is hard to jump into nearly five years later, especially in its 40s, when athleticism becomes the foundation for Pacquiao’s success.
As a fighter whose offense is based on speed and explosiveness, Pacquiao has to find the source of the young to eliminate frustration (Barrios is a favorite of every ESPN bet-450). Throughout his career, Pacquiao's success was largely due to his ability to get in and out of trouble, blowing up opponents with a lightning-fast Quick combination from an awkward perspective. Only the superior counterattackers (Juan Manuel Marquez and Floyd Mayweather) can properly read Pacquiao's unpredictable offensive explosion and tame them on time on the counter. As Pacquiao starts to slow down, less skilled fighters such as Jeff Horn are more likely to be tired. Even so, at some point Pacquiao was quick enough in the draw to surprise his opponent. Adrien Broner and Keith Thurman both faced a 40-year-old Pacquiao who still exploded enough to drown his speed.
That was six years ago.
In Pacquiao's recent battle with UGA, he showed less explosiveness, and his footwork was haunted by UGAS' pokes and looping right hand. Of course, UGA is a technically reasonable Cuban boxer who fundamentally relies on pure athleticism to become a world champion. Nevertheless, Pacquiao never found any rhythm and was eventually eliminated in the final battle of his legendary profession.
Like Pacquiao found his old form, the battle with Barrios will be the same as overcoming his opponent's physical advantage. Pacquiao will have to hope that his time away from the sport provides some much-needed spring in his footsteps. If he can't cut the angle and find the gap in and out of his own footwork, he will end up in the error of Barrios' long jab.
However, Barrios is not unrivaled, and it is the most reasonable path for Pacquiao to achieve his goal of regaining the middleweight championship. Barrios survived his recent outing, splitting in the sixth round of knockout on the bottom card against Mike Tyson in November. Barrios tends to deny their height and achieve an advantage by fighting "small" and having most successful boxing inside. His knockout loss to Gervonta Davis in 2021 made "El Azteca" make himself vulnerable by squatting within a shorter opponent's range - Davis is 5-foot-5½. Barrios is also a bit slower and can be eliminated by higher opponents. Thurman had a 931-day break and looked faster and sharper than Barrios when they met in 2022.
Nonetheless, Thurman was 33 years old at the time and the major boxing years of sports. Pacquiao is far from that. In his mid-40s, it is unlikely that Pacquiao is now somehow faster and more explosive than he would have played against Thurman and Brona in 2019.