The bet is high This weekend, icebreaker trade talks between the United States and China, as the result can relocate the future of economic relations between the world's two largest economies.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer are scheduled to meet with China's leading economic representative and vice-premier in Switzerland on Saturday.

Analysts say a full deal is unlikely to be reached at a meeting, but they hope to roll back some of the high-priced tariffs.

Both sides have been looking for ways to downgrade as the economic losses of tariffs become increasingly difficult to ignore.

In the first quarter of this year, the U.S. economy had a contract of 0.3% as fears the economy would fall into a recession of higher inflation and higher unemployment. Although China's economy grew 5.4% in the first three months of the year, major banks have cut their full-year growth forecasts for the country, just below the government's target.

Dan Wang, China director of Eurasia Group, political risk consulting firm, said Trump could lose more because the Chinese political system grants the country's leadership "a higher threshold for pain" and "a greater control over macro policy support in the short term."

Wang said his main task will be to seek to clarify what Trump wants and to assess whether the United States intends to harm China's interests.

Before the meeting, there seemed to be confidence boosting confidence, with China releasing trade data showing exports soaring 8.1% and goods rose to freight in Southeast Asian countries in April, shrugging, shrugging and shrugging at the United States.

On Friday, China's Ministry of Commerce launched a "special action" to combat the smuggling of strategic minerals, including nectars, germanium, antimony, tungsten, medium and medium and heavy rare earths.

The ministry did not name a specific entity, defining the action as a “suppression of overseas entities conspiring with illegal domestic personnel” to bypass export control rules earlier this year.

"This is a useful reminder of the leverage that China has, as the negotiations will take place in Geneva," said Stephen Olson, a visiting senior fellow at the Southeast Asian Institute and a former visitor senior fellow at the U.S. trade negotiator.

China is one of the world's largest producers of key minerals, which is crucial to the manufacturing of semiconductors, defense equipment and clean energy. China has increased export controls on metals as part of retaliation measures announced last month against Trump’s tariffs.

"The sharpest arrow China has in the tremor is limiting our access to critical minerals that cannot be easily sourced elsewhere," Olson said.

Bloomberg reported on Friday that Washington's agenda is ensuring the removal of Chinese export restrictions on rare earths used to make magnets.

Another potential pressure point for Trump is China's holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds, which may pose risks to financial market stability.

Wu said Beijing would likely prune its nearly $80 billion in U.S. government debt if it wants to boost Trump’s calories.

While speculation that China may unload its Treasury holdings to beat the tariffs, a massive sell-off could also backfire. Such a move could strengthen the yuan, undermine China's export competitiveness, and cause huge losses to its dollar-denominated assets.

According to the retained analysts, the partial reversal of tariffs was one of the most likely outcomes of the meeting, separated by the degree of adjustment and the rate of downgrade.

Robin Xing, chief Chinese economist at Morgan Stanley, expects that by the end of the year, the effective tariff rate on Chinese goods may be reduced to the current terminal rate of 107% to 45%.

Similarly, Tianchen Xu, a senior economist in the intelligence department of economist, predicts that the United States and China will reduce their mutually weighted average tariff rates by about 50% in the short term.

According to Xu's estimates, this is still higher than the 16% tariff imposed on U.S. products before Trump returns to the office.

Senior U.S. officials have expressed optimism in recent days about the upcoming speech, saying they can alleviate the trade barriers Trump raised last month.

"Downgrade, bringing these rates down where they can, where should they be, I think that's what Scott Bessent aims," ​​Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told CNBC on Friday. "That's what the president hopes is a good result, it's a world of downgrades, we go back to each other and then we work together."

"I think we'll have a great weekend with China," Trump said of the Swiss meeting at the White House's White House's trade deal with the UK.

The U.S. president then said in a social post on social media platform truth on Friday: “China’s 80% tariff seems to be correct!

On the other hand, Chinese officials have put forward a stronger tone, reaffirming the country's need for the Trump administration to remove all unilateral tariffs in China.

A spokesman for the Commerce Department said Wednesday that "China will not sacrifice the principle of reaching a deal with us", while repeating that Washington must "correct its wrongdoing" by removing all unilateral tariffs.

Xu said that in the upcoming talks, China could still provide some "sweeteners", such as hoped to strengthen the crackdown on fentanyl flow.

Both sides are trying to relieve economic pain from high tariffs, thus eliminating taxation on a variety of commodities, including consumer electronics, semiconductors and automotive parts.

China reportedly exempts U.S. import tariffs on certain drugs, microchips and aircraft engines. It also created a "white list" of U.S. goods that will not be subject to additional taxes, Reuters reported.

But attempts to achieve a more comprehensive deal similar to the first phase of the deal signed by Trump in the first semester may be "long and unrestrained" as both sides have little compromise on their respective strategic priorities and economic red lines.

Xu added: "We seriously doubt the possibility that the United States and China have reached a phase one trade agreement with 2020, a pattern that has been discredited in the eyes of senior U.S. officials."

China claims it fulfilled the provisions of the Phase 1 trade agreement Trump reached with Beijing during his first presidency, while claiming that the United States violated some of the tasks in the agreement.

The deal requires China to increase purchases of U.S. goods by $200 billion over a two-year period, but Beijing has not reached its target due to the COVID-19 pandemic hit.