A brief look at the box score or the study of the fantasy baseball category doesn’t always tell the full story of a player’s performance. Dalton del Don tries to identify misleading numbers worthy of careful observation.
Yes...the numbers are indeed lying.
Warren ended with 5.63 ERA and 1.42 WHIP, but he recorded 3.18 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in May with 24 strikeouts. In addition, both of his runs should have been out last time. Warren's season 4.61 ERA has 3.46 Siera, ranking in the top 25 among qualified starters. His 31.1% CSW is sixth, ahead of Jacob DeGrom (2.29 ERA). Warren's K-BB% (20.5) ranked in the top 15 last month. Yankees Stadium is not easy to pitch, but most players perform better at home, with five of Warren's last six games appearing.
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Warren's ability to miss the bat and induce ground balls should lead to a lower era of progress. His LOB% (64.8) will be third among qualified starters and will be back to the average. Warren may also start winning more games, while shooting percentage is the American League offense. Warren has real fantasy upside room to move forward (and has two starts a week), but he has over 70% of the Yahoo League.
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Romano started elbow surgery slowly this season, but he scored no points in eight consecutive innings. His span is 0.50 whip and 11:1 K:BB ratio. Romano's 7.27 ERA was accompanied by 3.28 Siera and 33.7% of CSW, ranking 11th among 186 qualified rescuers.
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Romano lost to José Alvarado this season but was suspended for 80 games. Left-handed Matt Strahm may get the occasional savings when the showdown is decided, but Romano is now a Philadelphia favorite and Alvarado is out of place. The Phillies offer the fourth biggest savings this season (23), so Romano should start cheering them on.
Birdsong has won only one win this season due to relief pitching in the middle, but he is about to replace Jordan Hicks in the San Francisco starting rotation. Birdsong released a 0.75 ERA, 0.50 Whip and 18:0 K:BB ratio during spring training, and he has been effectively opening the season in the bullpen (2.31 ERA). Birdsong still needs to control himself, but he has a dynamic beginner. The Giants’ bullpen has a strong bullpen and plays a role in one of the parks of one of the most extreme pitchers in baseball, so Birdsong is starting to win more games now. He has 70% of the Yahoo League.
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Meyer's 4.47 ERA has 3.15 Siera, ranking in the top 10 of all qualified starters, behind Yoshinobu Yoshinobu and Chris Sale, just before Garrett Crochet, Jacob Degrom and Paul Skenes. Meyer ranks in the top 20 in K-BB% (19.9) and CSW ranks in the top 10 (30.4%). Of these 10 pitchers, there are 7 eras twothe three-pointer for two is the era, and then Meyer's 4.47 ERA. He has been working hard to give up home runs throughout his MLB career, but Meyers' 20.5 hours/fb% is the lowest among starting pitchers and is likely to drop.
Meyer has struggled particularly in the last four games (and he has only 44% of the roster), but his speed is still intact. Meyer's fantasy value will continue to be hampered when pitching for the Marlins, but his time should greatly improve the progress forward.