Lisbon, Portugal - Portugal is calling on its citizens to vote in the third general election in three years on May 18, amid a rapid shift to the country's political landscape, which puts the country facing the prospect of another breaking mandate after decades of relative stability.
This year's SIN election is a major issue on the public agenda where rising cost of living, housing crisis, the future of the National Health Agency and the rise in perceptions of immigration are all major issues - a corruption scandal that has caused the upcoming vote.
The Social Democratic Party leader Luis Montenegro government (PSD) fell in March when parliament voted against a motion for confidence, triggering elections. This is the second consecutive Portuguese government leaves the office under the cloud of corruption allegations.
Now, the country's 10 million voters will need to choose the composition of the next parliament, where 230 seats can be fought for - there seems to be a split mission.
Montenegro led the right-wing minority government for less than a year until a corruption charge emerged at a consulting firm he founded called "Spinumviva".
A series of media surveys on potential conflicts of interest show that the company receives thousands of euros in monthly consulting fees, including previously undisclosed clients, including companies with government contracts.
When Montenegro, who was provocative in March, posted his response on state television, he insisted that he did not violate the law because he transferred his shares to his wife and son before becoming prime minister in 2024.
But his defense is controversial, experts say.
"Under the Portuguese civil law, you are still their co-owner even if it is possible to sell shares to married people and therefore still be able to profit from it," said Carmo Afonso, a Portuguese lawyer and political commentator. "Spinumviva is a very serious case-revelation is still emerging."
A few weeks later, a live debate with his main rival, Pedro Nuno Santos of the Socialist Party, Montenegro declared its commercial interests as a national online transparency portal.
According to a survey by the Portuguese newspaper Expresso, some of Spinumviva's clients received at least 100 million euros ($112 million) in government contracts per year only during the mandate in Montenegro. Meanwhile, Montenegro said he has not been involved in Spinumviva since becoming prime minister in March 2024.
Still, the focus on Spinumviva may not have hurt Montenegro's chances of reelection. According to Portuguese political scientist Vicente Valentim, “There has traditionally been a high view on Portugal corruption, but this may not be a big factor in people’s voting.”
Despite the ongoing scandal, the Conservative Democratic League (AD) Coalition, the Social Democratic Party (PSD) in Montenegro is the majority party, leading the race and voted 34%.
According to a poll by Catholic University in Lisbon, one in three voters believe that the Spinumviva case and its potential legal consequences have nothing to do with the election.
Montenegro saw him enjoying the support of a professional class during his brief period in the government, a budget surplus obtained by Antonio Costa’s last Central Socialist Party (PS) government, who served as Prime Minister from 2015-2024.
Meanwhile, “the loss of the charismatic Antonio Costa has affected the popularity of PS,” Afonso said. “Costa Rica is a very difficult behavior to follow.”
“Ironically, the more talk about Spinumviva, the better the statement about Montenegro is. “Montenegro chose to vote for confidence on parliament, which fully knew that he would lose it because there really wasn’t a better time to hold the election – better for him. ”
By comparison, PS will be below AD's few points surveyed, at about 26%.
At present, either party or league will win a majority of 116 or more seats, which seems very unlikely. This leaves two possible possibilities: a party coalition of parties that are the majority in the coalition, or a minority government that requires tacit support from other parties in parliament to promote basic legislation, including budgets.
About six political parties are serious competitors to the remaining 230 seats in parliament. These include traditional players such as the Communist Green League (CDU), left-side group and people's group, as well as the European socialist party Livre ("free"), including radical right-wing liberal liberals ("liberal") and extreme right chega (enough right) ("enough right) ("enough right)").
Chega, which opposes immigration, abortion and LGBTQ rights, aims to target Portugal’s large Romani population, won a surprising 50 parliamentary seats in the 2024 election, while Andre Ventura is the leader. It won 18% of the national vote.
The party is currently in the third place in the polls and is expected to win the last election.
Political scientist Valentim warned against interpreting Chega's support base as a representative protesting vote.
“Many people who voted for them already hold the ideas they espouse long before the party actually emerged; generally speaking, the rapid growth of radical right-wing parties does not depend on them to change people’s ideas,” he said. “So, over the course of the past three elections, Chega went from 1% to 7% to 18%, which does not mean that the number of people with right-wing ideas has grown in these proportions.”
This means that “more and more people already have these ideas but once felt that they were socially unacceptable and were judged or put social untouchables or professionally struggling because of them, so they no longer feel that.”
As the campaign period progresses, Chega has been attracting potential voters who usually abstain. While polls suggest that the party may not make significant gains compared to the 2024 election, Valentim said he thinks it will stay here.
"Portugal was the exception to the European landscape before, because there were no far-right parties there that had significant success there; that was no longer the case," he said. "We can say with certainty that Chiga would not disappear like it suddenly. The political landscape did change."
There are a number of consequences, he said.
“Citizens and politicians are more likely to express extreme right-wing ideas in public,” he said. “The polarization around specific issues such as immigration and minority rights, of course, how the more traditional central rights deal with the dilemma of the right”.
Under Montenegro, PSD insists that it will not reach an agreement with Chega. However, the choice to form a government is limited. According to Valentim, centre-right parties often try to overcome the popularity of the new radical right, including sometimes, with them by shifting their partnerships to the more right.
He said this actually rarely fits to the right of the center. "The power sharing agreement with the extreme right legitimizes these parties without really bringing any long-term benefits, bringing any long-term benefits to the center's rights," he said. "Study shows that the center's right to reconciliation and the right of the right neither gets votes from the right-most right, nor does it restore more votes to the center. However, it does lead to normalizing the typical discourse of the extreme right, thus making extreme right ideas like Xenophobia more acceptable."
This impact can be seen even before the campaign begins on immigration issues, which Portugal has been actively encouraging in recent years. According to the Portuguese Bank, nearly a quarter of Portuguese companies now employ foreign workers. According to a study by the Francisco Manuel Dos Santos Foundation, the number of immigrants in Portugal tripled between 2015 and 2023.
However, right-wing parties have also sparked strong opposition to immigration, especially the presence of agricultural and store staff from India, Pakistan and Bangladesh. The FMS Foundation report shows that negative views on immigration far outweigh positive views—67% of the people they voted to survey responded that they believe the presence of foreigners is related to the increase in crime. Last year, Chega filed a parliamentary motion to hold a national referendum on immigration, but was voted to decide.
Earlier this month, the Montenegro government informed 4,500 immigrants that they must leave the country within 20 days. After the permanent closure of the border agency SEF in 2024, the government canceled a plan that allows immigrants originating from outside the EU to apply for residency rights that once worked in the country. Some people facing deportation have been waiting for several years to respond to their applications, and thousands of such notices are expected in the coming months.
These policies are in sharp contrast to the population situation in Portugal, with a decline in birth rates, aging populations and fertility rates. Furthermore, it suffers from a persistent trend in youth immigration – about 30% of the population is between 15 and 39 years old, one of the highest populations in the world. A study conducted by Porto University in December 2024 said Portugal will need to ensure that 138,000 immigrants each year ensure economic growth over the next decade.
At the same time, the housing crisis is the biggest problem in Portugal. House prices rose 106% from 2015 to 2023, compared with 48% in Spain and 8% in Italy, according to the Francisco Manuel Dos Santos Foundation. The increase in real estate value is caused by deregulation, a large influx of foreign investment, real estate speculation and tourism boom.
As a result, young people and professionals are increasingly unable to afford housing in cities like Lisbon and Porto, where rents have also prompted small businesses to close, while remaining low-income tenants have extended their rents or faced evictions.
Rising housing prices also contribute to the overall increase in the cost of living as energy and food prices rise. Factors such as the Ukrainian war (due to its impact on global supply chains) have increased the crisis.
As of Thursday night, nearly 20% of voters were uncertain, meaning there could be a range of results after Sunday’s vote: an ad-led minority government, less likely to be a coalition between PS’s minority government or a variety of political players.
If that happens, it will be the second time Portugal will have no majority government: the ad won 80 seats in 2024, with 230 seats, just before PS, winning 78 seats.
For Valentine, this is no longer an anomaly—he hopes that will repeat in future elections.
“Portuguese democracy has gone through a long period of relative stability,” he said, reflecting on the fact that Portugal celebrated 50 years after the dictatorship of Estado Nova this year after the 50th anniversary of the first fully free election. “Its multiparty system has hardly changed for decades, with government alternating between the center left PS and the right center right PSD, with interventions from other parties.”
"But now a lot has changed in a short period of time, and more and more new parties are entering parliament," he added.
This means that there are fewer votes on mainstream centrist parties, PS and PSD, as new parties like Chega enter traditional bases.
"We are now entering a new paradigm," Valentine said. "How these different political forces will balance remain to be seen."