The Los Angeles fire was an unprecedented national disaster. City officials, California Governor Gavin Newsom and President-elect Donald Trump have blamed each other for causing the crisis. But as an engineering professor who lives in Los Angeles and has studied extreme events and natural and man-made disasters for more than 40 years, I believe that an event that caused so many casualties and estimated hundreds of billions of dollars in damage requires a more substantial response .

A number of issues are believed to be the root causes of this massive wildfire outbreak. These include mismanagement of water resources, misallocation of firefighting resources, fire department funding cuts, poor risk management, resurgence of past fires, and climate-induced droughts. Rumors and conspiracy theories abound.

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I have served as a member or consultant in investigations of incidents at the national and state levels, including natural gas spills, oil spills, nuclear reactor accidents, refinery explosions, and most recently aviation accidents.

In my opinion, the Los Angeles fires require a similar investigation that is technically sound, multidisciplinary, impartial, apolitical, and independent. U.S. Sen. Adam Schiff of California has called for such a review.

To quote Albert Einstein: “Condemnation without investigation is the height of ignorance.”

Natural events + human reactions

Natural disasters such as wildfires, earthquakes and tsunamis often serve as triggers. These events are devastating in themselves and can have even more catastrophic consequences due to human choices. Nature delivers the initial shock, but a complex interplay of human, organizational and technological factors can mitigate or worsen the consequences.

I believe that in critical moments following natural disasters and technological system failures, human operators and first responders constitute society's first and last line of defense against death and destruction—serving as our immediate shields, intermediate mitigators, and ultimately Savior.

I saw this when I served on a National Academy of Sciences committee studying the 2011 Fukushima nuclear accident in Japan. The explosion and release of radioactive material at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant was triggered by an earthquake and tsunami, but a high-level review in Japan concluded that the event was a "man-made disaster" caused by man-made and organized disasters at the utility and government levels. caused by mistakes.

The fate of the Onagawa nuclear power plant, just 39 miles from Fukushima, is also noteworthy. Although Onagawa Prefecture was closer to the quake's epicenter and faced a more powerful tsunami, the reactors there - which are the same type and age as the Fukushima reactors and subject to the same regulations - escaped virtually unscathed. This stark difference overturns any argument that the failure of the Fukushima plant was inevitable, an act of God, or a purely natural disaster.

A high-level committee reviewed similar disasters in the United States. For example:

– The 1979 Presidential Commission on the Three Mile Island Nuclear Accident produced the landmark Kemeny Report, which concluded that the accident was primarily caused by human factors, including inadequate operator training and confusing procedures, not just It's an equipment failure. The report strongly criticized the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, which regulates the nuclear power industry, and recommended a complete restructuring of the agency. It also calls for the nuclear industry to adopt better safety measures, operator training and emergency preparedness.

– Independent commissions investigated the 1986 Challenger and 2003 Columbia explosions. They found similar systemic issues behind these events, even though they were 17 years apart, and provided overlapping recommendations to improve NASA's safety culture and decision-making processes.

– Two national reviews — one by the Blue Ribbon Commission and another by the National Academy of Engineering and the National Research Council — investigated the 2010 BP Deepwater Horizon explosion and oil spill. The disaster killed 11 workers, seriously injured 16 others, and spilled approximately 134 million barrels of oil into the Gulf of Mexico.

Both reports concluded that BP's poor safety culture and practices, combined with technical failures, lax oversight and inadequate inspections, led to the blowout. Both committees made recommendations to improve offshore drilling safety.

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Analyzing the Los Angeles Fires

Based on my research and experience, I believe that only a high-level independent commission of inquiry can fully uncover the interconnected causes of this disaster. Government agencies, regulators and legislative committees inevitably fall short in such investigations. They are limited by jurisdictional boundaries and bureaucratic interests. Their efforts remain too narrow and inward-looking. And, most importantly, they lack real independence.

Governor Newsom has directed the Los Angeles Department of Water and Public Works to examine the reasons for dry hydrants, which is hampering firefighting efforts. But the focus of this investigation is limited to water supply issues near Pacific Palisades. It did not address other fires, such as the Eaton Fire near Pasadena, which caused greater damage.

The most direct way to get a high-level review of the Los Angeles wildfires would be for the Trump administration and Congress to direct the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and the National Research Council to establish an independent commission. The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit organization created by President Abraham Lincoln in 1863 to provide the nation with independent, objective advice on complex issues. The National Research Council is the operating agency of the National Academy of Sciences.

Typically, such studies are led by national eminent persons or renowned academics and conducted by national panels of experts from academia, business, the public sector and non-governmental organizations.

The National Academy of Sciences has a reputation for conducting independent, rigorous, and nonpartisan research. They thoroughly screen members for technical expertise and conflicts of interest. All of their studies undergo formal peer review, which helps ensure they are scientifically accurate and trustworthy.

When the federal government requires the Academy to conduct research, Congress provides funding through the relevant federal agencies. For the Los Angeles fires, the federal sponsor might be the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development or the Federal Emergency Management Agency.

Can a study proposed and sponsored by Congress and the Trump administration be balanced and nonpartisan? In my opinion, if the National Academy of Sciences produced it, the answer would be yes. The academies have a proven track record of examining complex issues, including disaster planning, response and recovery, risk assessment and wildfire. Their recommendations improve public policy.

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Lessons for future disasters

I think the Los Angeles fires are a stark warning to communities across the country. Climate-induced extreme events are becoming the planet’s new normal, with a growing gap between municipal planning, preparedness and response capabilities.

Addressing these unprecedented challenges requires a paradigm shift in public policy. To protect public safety, officials and planners must proactively respond to situations that have recently seemed unthinkable.

For example, while Southern Californians were accustomed to wildfires, Los Angeles County agencies were unprepared to fight several major blazes at once. The flooding caused by Hurricane Helene in North Carolina in September 2024 is another example. According to past records, rainfall totals in the southern Appalachians reach levels that occur only once every 1,000 years.

To prepare for such events, government agencies at all levels need to reimagine their approach to hazard assessment, risk management, and emergency response. I believe a balanced and thorough investigation of the Los Angeles fires can help communities across America reframe their thinking about emergency planning.