Asteroids are notorious for their potential Collision with the Earth in 2032 According to NASA and European Space Agency, there is now about a 3% chance to hit our planet (the highest probability allocated ever).

The risk of large-scale space rocks (belonging to the "city killer" category) actually makes an impact Steady increase It was first discovered in December last year. When NASA and ESA first announced their existence last month, the near-Earth asteroid was known as the 2024 YR4, with an initial 1% chance of hitting the land. The agreement requires institutions to formally notify the public when the probability of an asteroid strike reaches a threshold of 1%, which is an extremely rare occurrence in itself.

Currently, on December 22, 2032, asteroids will have a 3.1% chance of hitting Earth in a short window of time, with rocks surrounding the orbit of the sun intersecting the path of the Earth. This means the chances of collision are still small, about one in 32. The latest probability estimates from the European Space Agency are slightly lower than those shared by NASA at 2.8%.

Both risk estimates have been revised upward since NASA and ESA agreed last week that the likelihood of an asteroid strike is close to 2%.

Astronomers and researchers say that this probability may drop to zero as they learn more about asteroids, and the James Webb space telescope will be carefully observed before disappearing in April. Richard Moissl, head of the European Space Agency, said that most of the risks are based on areas of "uncertainty" in outer space, where asteroids may or may not end up appearing, and higher Chances reflect new insights into the region. Ministry of National Defense.

"The size of the Earth (located within an area of ​​uncertainty) is compared with the uncertainty area where the entire asteroid may be at a critical moment. When we reach this threshold of international consciousness, this is equivalent to about 1%," Moissl Tell CBS News Last week, it was about how to determine the chances of collisions.

Since then, the size of the uncertainty region has shrunk because there is more knowledge about this, so the Earth remains the same size, accounting for most of the region than the original Earth. Scientifically, even if there is no real change, this raises the probability, Moissl said. He stressed that even 3% of hitting opportunities corresponds to 97% of missing opportunities, and it is very likely that YR4 will not pose a threat to our world in 2024.

"As we know, uncertainty will shrink further and further," he said. "It is expected that we will try to narrow it down so that the earth is no longer within this uncertainty area, and then the impact probability will drop. to zero.”

Experts say the likelihood of a crash will likely drop below 1% by April, as the asteroid orbit is too far from Earth to see it on the ground. After that, 2024 will no longer be visible in four years.

If its route continues to rise in the probability of collision, it may continue to rise if its route places it on Earth's "close flight." "This is still no cause for alarm," Mostell said, although the International Space Organization is taking smaller risks seriously. Asteroids 40 to 90 meters wide may be able to destroy medium-sized cities on Earth. If researchers find that its actual size is close to the top of the range, it could flatten some of the world’s largest metropolitan areas.