Meta's AI spending becomes the focus of Trump's tariff policy

Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg watched at a luncheon on the day of the inauguration of U.S. President Donald Trump on January 20, 2025 in Washington, USA.

Evelyn Hawkstan | Reuters

Mark Zuckerberg's plan is Yuan Market leader in artificial intelligence. Investors will wonder how President Donald Trump’s heavy-duty trade policy will affect the strategy.

When the company hosts its first Llama brand meeting for AI developers on Tuesday, the answers could start from the week to the week before holding its latest quarterly earnings for the next day.

Technology companies have begun talking about the potential impacts due to Trump’s tariffs.

Intel Chief Financial Officer David Zinsner said Thursday in a first-quarter earnings call for chip giants that U.S. trade policy “increases the chances of an economic slowdown and the possibility of a recession is growing.” Meanwhile, Google CFO Anat Ashkenazi said in a first-quarter earnings call that the tech giant remains committed to its $75 billion capital expenditure or capital expenditure investment this year, but also acknowledged that the “time of delivery and construction timelines” could lead to quarter-to-quarter spending volatility.

Currently, analysts expect Meta to follow Google's lead and will spend up to $65 billion in its plan when it reports this year's AI infrastructure on Wednesday. Some analysts believe metapeople can even raise numbers because AI is a core priority for the company.

"We don't want Meta to cut CAPX guidelines by 60b-$65b in 2025 because they see it as an important 10-year investment," Needham Analysts wrote in a research note released Wednesday. "But the tariffs increase the risk of upward cost revisions."

Investors will also monitor Meta's Llamacon activity at Menlo Park, California, with its headquarters to show that its AI investment is making an immediate business impact. This will be the first time Meta has held a developer meeting specifically for its AI model’s Llama family.

"Investors want to see the ROI of all these AI investments, and while META shows obvious benefits in leveraging AI to improve its products and drive its faster revenue growth, it's hard to quantify these benefits," Truist Securities analyst Yousef Squali told CNBC.

Meta released several new Llama 4 models in April, and Meta Chief Product Officer Chris Cox previously said it could help so-called AI agents that can perform tasks for users through web browsers and other online interfaces.

It is crucial that Meta continues to improve Llama to create a major business involving AI agents that companies can use to interact with applications like Facebook and WhatsApp, said Ralph Schackart, an analyst at William Blair Research.

"Meta has an early improvement advantage in the trillion-dollar market. We believe Meta is very good at leveraging its billions of global users across multiple platforms," ​​Schackart said in an email.

Ken Gawrelski, managing director of Wells Fargo Equity Research, said Meta is unlikely to curb its investment in llamas any time soon, but should eventually consider doing so if it fails to generate enough money to justify its costs.

“We do think that over time, the meta needs to continue to evaluate whether llamas need to compete with leading models,” Gawrelski said. “It’s a very expensive proposition, and so far, unlike Google, Meta hasn’t directly profited its model in any material way.”

Chris Cox, chief product officer of Meta Platform, spoke at the Wall Street Journal’s WSJ Tech Live conference held in Laguna Beach, California on October 17, 2023.

Patrick T. Fallon | AFP | Getty Images

Meta AI and Consumers

Analysts also follow the Meta AI Digital Assistant. That's because Chatgpt competitors represent the second pillar of Zuckerberg's AI strategy.

Zuckerberg said in January that he believes 2025 “will be a year, a year that is reaching over a billion people with a highly intelligent and personalized AI assistant, and I hope Meta AI will be the leading AI assistant.”

In February, CNBC reported that Meta plans to debut its standalone META AI app in the second quarter and test a paid subscription service where users can pay monthly to access more powerful versions, such as ChatGpt.

While Meta's huge user base in its app family provides Meta AI with an advantage over competitors like Chatgpt, they may not interact with Meta AI in the same way as their competitor chat apps are in the same way they are in the way they are in the competition in terms of reaching the scope.

If all they have to do is passively watch short videos the Meta algorithm recommends to it, then people may not want to use Meta AI on Facebook and Instagram, Gawrelski said.

"That's why it might be helpful to have a separate meta-AI that can clearly express its use cases and value propositions," Gawrelski said.

Debra Aho Williamson, founder and chief analyst at Sonata Insights, said independent meta-AI applications can help companies better market digital assistants and distinguish them from competitors.

"Chatgpt has such a wide brand awareness that it is a moat that is very quickly and hard to overcome," Williamson said.

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