The back of the back of the back will attack Los Angeles County this week, which will cause the region to urgently need water in another round of potential San Anna.
The forecasters are very optimistic. The upcoming rainfall will be mainly beneficial. The re -burned vegetation will be harmful due to the historically dry water year and will not release devastating mudslides in the recent burning areas.
The National Meteorological Administration estimates that a large number of debris flows in the fire in Los Angeles and Weitala County are less than 5 %. However, this situation can still be changed, especially if the second storm is strengthened or changed the way later this week.
"We want to end the fire season after the two may be sufficient after these two times." It is easy to be affected, because rainfall takes a period of time to soak in the soil and enter the local vegetation. "
Hall said that it usually takes three to six weeks of vegetation, such as Chaparral and coastal sage, which absorbs moisture from rainfall.
Even so, the storm last month has made a difference. Alex Tardy, a meteorologist in San Diego's office, said the data shows that the vegetation absorbs a lot of water.
"As long as it keeps cool, we do not have more St. Anna style, and we will precipitate like we are going to see this week-this provides us in February." "In the middle of winter Rain and snow have taken a long way. ""
From January 25th to January 27th, the rainfall in the center of Los Angeles was 0.54 inches, and the city center may fall to five -fifths of rainfall before Friday.
Even if this happens, rainwater scholars with a total of less than 2 to 4 inches say that they must be comfortable and clearly terminate the fire season.
However, each one will help, especially on the weekend that there may be another gentle San Anna event.
Hall said that these winds may start from inland areas to the north, which may affect the Grape Vine District in the Santa Parbara County No. 5 and the southern part of Santa Barbara. wind.
San Anna's wind brought dry gusts, flowing out of the high desert on the mountain, passing through the canyon, as the cold air fell from the high pressure area, when it seemed to see the area under pressure under the coast, the vegetation was dry.
Those dry gusts of St. Anna wind can increase the risk of fire, especially with dry vegetation.
Although it has been raining recently, most parts of Southern California are still dry. This season, this season, the typical rainfall is less than 25 %. The St. Anna Wind Season can last until March.
Many communities are still far behind the typical annual rainfall. Taddy said that among a group of people in Southern California, the drip deficit is between 5 and 8 inches.
Since the beginning of October 1st, the city center of Los Angeles has only received one-tenth rainfall-until the year of the year, its typical average level accounts for only 9 % of its typical average.
San Diego has only obtained 0.35 inches. Since the record in 1850, the record of the water year is lowEssence This only accounts for 7 % of the average level of the season.
San Diego's rainfall deficit is about 5 inches: "That's half of our rainfall each year," Taddy said.
Taddy said what the biggest problem is February (traditionally we wet the wet month in California "will bring.
Dry conditions may return later this month.
"In general, we keep cold air," Taddy said. "Therefore, from the northwest of the Pacific to New England, the cold air does dominate the entire United States."
As a result, jets (rapid flow from west to east) will not exceed Southern California. Taddy said that it would be rainy, and Southern California hoped to take the water of the ferry under the jet.
The latest forecast model shows that jets will cross Washington and Oregon, and then decline in southeast of Nevada and Arizona.
The map of the National Meteorological Administration shows how the jets that can be moved from California from mid -February to mid -February, which may cause the weather to dry.
(National Meteorological Bureau)
"This means that we are on the drought side, which can even give us some San Anna's offshore wind." "Of course, this does not bring us a lot of opportunities for precipitation, but it does make February the first in February. The temperature of the two weeks remains cool and cool.
In other words, "precipitation here is not hopeful," he said.
Taddy said that there is a potential storm system in the Pacific, which may arrive in mid -February. Nevertheless, "This is not an opportunity to make precipitation."
The first time in the two atmosphere will be on Tuesday night in Los Angeles and Wenster County, it will last until noon on Wednesday. The second storm is expected to start from Thursday night to Friday morning.
"We are likely to see the moderate rainfall and the rate of rainfall, which is likely to have a small impact."
Both of these storms are "pineapple express" varieties, because they are named because they from the ocean near Hawaii to tropical water from the mainland.
In the first storm, the peak rainfall may be very light-one-hour to one-hour inch every hour to one-hour. In Ventura, Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo, the peak rainfall may Although there may be as many as three -quarters of the place per hour.
The key threshold of rainfall may cause obvious debris flow to half an hour or higher.
In the combustion area of 2024 Lake Fire, the possibility of rainfall may reach 10 % to 20 %. In the mountains of Santa Barbara, north of Los Olivos, two -thirds of the three -thirds of the hour The burning area is 38,664 acres.
In San Luis Obispo County, San Louis Obispo is medium (30 % to 40 %), three -thirds per hour, three -thirds per hour.
Hall said that rainfall may be particularly focused on the south slopes and hillsides, because the water in the area arrives.
Hall said that at present, there are a large number of soil and debris flows near the area near Palisid and Eaton.
In Los Angeles County, the biggest impact related to rainfall may be the streams and road floods.
The most likely situation of the first storm in Los Angeles County was the peak rainfall arrived between Tuesday and Wednesday at 10 noon. Long Beach and Kovina can get a quarter of an inch of rain; St. Clarita, about one -third of the inch; and the center of Los Angeles, Leidong Duo Beach and Canoga Park, about two -inch inch.
(National Meteorological Bureau)
The rainfall in the north and west may be higher. In Weitala County, thousands of oak trees can rain half an inch. Filmore, three -inch; Oxnard, one -quarter inch; OJAI, 1.64 inches. 1.19 inches of Santa Barbara; San Luis Obispo, 1.47 inches; and Campbrida, 1.96 inches.
In the second storm, the most likely situation is the peak rainfall on Thursday afternoon and evening. Long Beach, Leidong Duo Beach, St. Claryta and Thousand Oaks may get about one -third of the rain; central Los Angeles, Oxnard and Canoga Park, two -inch inch ; Covina, half -inch; and Santa Barbara, three -thirds of inch.
The slide of the National Meteorological Administration shows a atmospheric river or "pineapple express", which extends from around Hawaii to Southern California, predicting the storm on Thursday.
(National Meteorological Bureau)
The snow level in Los Angeles County will remain above 6,500 feet to 8,000 feet above sea level.
Winds from the south and southwest are expected to develop in the next few days. In a densely populated area, the gusts of Los Angeles County may be 25 miles per hour at a speed of 15 miles per hour. In mountainous and deserts, gusts are 25 miles/h.