Campus protests. A vacant lot in a homeless encampment. Shootings, homicides and drug overdose deaths dropped significantly. Protest "Save Chinatown." Mass shooting at SEPTA bus stop. Illegal car parties. City staff called the office. SEPTA strike averted.

These are just some of the headlines from Philadelphia politics in 2024.

So, what does 2025 mean for the city?

I am a professor of political science at Drexel University, and in 2023 I published a short book, "Reforming Philadelphia, 1682-2022," which tracks the city's political development and looks at the future of its policies and politics .

Here are six key storylines that will shape Philadelphia's political landscape in 2025.

1. Party Shift

Entering 2025, Philadelphia is significantly more politically diverse than it was five years ago.

The partisanship in Philadelphia is not so much a Democratic-Republican split as a divide between what local journalist Larry Platt once called “reformers and progressives,” referring to the more conservative factions on the one hand. A third party on the other side of the divide between conservative Democrats and more liberal Democrats and progressives.

The number of progressive candidates has increased slightly in recent years. Seven of the 17 members of the Philadelphia City Council are elected by popular vote, but no political party can nominate more than five members to run for these seats in the general election. That means there have been five Democratic and two Republican rank-and-file members for as long as anyone can remember.

Then, in 2019, Working Families Party candidate Kendra Brooks won one of two at-large seats previously held by Republicans. A year later, two democratic socialists, Nikhil Sarwar and Rick Krajewski, who were running as Democrats, were elected to the state Senate and state House of Representatives, respectively. In 2023, another Working Families Party member, Nicolas O'Rourke, won the second city council seat reserved for the minor party, completely unseating the Republican.

Meanwhile, Mayor Cherelle Parker, who is elected in 2023, is a fairly conservative Democrat — at least in the sense that her focus is less on social justice issues and more on typical municipal issues like cleanliness and public safety.

Republicans are up in Philadelphia in the 2024 elections, as they are nearly everywhere in the country. Republicans won the city's state Senate seat for the first time in two decades.

The latest surge in favor of Republicans would ostensibly threaten the two rank-and-file Working Families Party members on the City Council who are most vulnerable to election challenges that could bring rank-and-file Republicans back. However, they are safe until 2027, when the Democratic Party in Philadelphia is likely to rise again, as many voters are likely to be dissatisfied with the Trump administration by then.

2. Will Krasner stay or go?

In 2025, the most watched city election will be for district attorney, and the time seems ripe for change.

The current president is Larry Krasner, who was first elected in 2017 as part of the post-Trump progressive wave. In 2021, he won another decisive victory in the Democratic primary, defeating a challenger who largely supported the Fraternal Order of Police.

However, Parker's election as mayor — and Trump's election as president — suggests that Krasner may be facing voters in May 2025 who are ready for a more law-and-order message. The Philadelphia District Attorney's Office has historically been a bastion of conservative Democrats and even Republicans. Krasner may face a more significant challenger this time around, especially in a primary.

3. Kensington at a crossroads

Parker has benefited from a sharp decline that followed a surge in crime and violence caused by the pandemic. But she also increased the police budget to hire 400 new officers; hired a police chief from within, Kevin Bethel, who had previously been praised for his work on diversion and juvenile justice; and focus on quality-of-life issues, such as cracking down on ATV gangs.

Parker also paid special attention to the Kensington neighborhood and its notorious open-air drug market. This is important, especially because Kensington is a large factor in the city's unfortunate status as a leader in drug overdose deaths.

The drug trade also suppresses development and property values ​​in neighborhoods on the path to gentrification, thus suppressing real estate tax revenue. In my opinion, cleaning up Kensington promises to be one of the best returns on investment in the city.

4. Parker and the Trump Administration

Of course, the other new thing the city will have to deal with in 2025 is the incoming Trump administration.

In 2016, the previous Trump administration feuded with then-Mayor Jim Kenney over the city's asylum policies regarding federal immigration enforcement. Basically, the Kenney administration won and got the withheld federal funding back.

If Parker plans to maintain some kind of patronage status for the city, she could be in trouble. The Trump administration — which is no friend of Philadelphia at the best of times — may face less resistance and some acquiescence, as we’ve seen in Chicago, where some city council members have suggested revoking the city’s sanctuary status.

The incoming president has also repeatedly expressed a willingness to use the military to carry out mass deportations, sidestepping necessary cooperation from local law enforcement. This is a critical issue because immigrants are an important economic asset to Philadelphia. The Pew Charitable Trusts found that immigrants in Philadelphia tend to be younger, more likely to participate in the labor force, and more likely to start businesses than Philadelphia natives.

5. Market East is in trouble

Then there's the proposed downtown Sixers home stadium, which was approved by the City Council in a 12-5 vote in December 2024 before being completely scrapped in early January 2025. Is this entire project just some kind of bargaining chip for Sixers ownership and management to use? Get a better South Philly deal from Comcast Spectacor, the owner of the team's current home at Wells Fargo Center?

Regardless, the entire project undoubtedly left a bad impression on Chinatown businesses and other interest groups, who opposed the new stadium and felt betrayed by the mayor and City Council. But with the next city council and mayoral elections not until 2027, the whole thing will likely be forgotten by the time any elected officials are punished at the polls.

The collapse of the downtown stadium deal opens up the future of the Market Street East corridor. The proposed arena is part of the Fashion District Reimagination, a redevelopment project by Pennsylvania Real Estate Investment Trust that opened in 2019. The pandemic and rising interest rates led to store closings and financial problems, and PREIT has since filed for bankruptcy twice. On top of that, Macy's, the corridor's anchor tenant, announced it would close its store in the historic Wanamaker Building next to City Hall.

East Market — essentially the city’s front door — isn’t looking good for the planned 250th anniversary celebrations in 2026. In fact, the Constitution was drafted in Independence Hall, which is part of the Market's East Corridor. Despite plans to convert the area into apartments and small shops, the chances that things will improve by 2025 seem rather slim.

Other major infrastructure projects could also benefit the mayor, most notably a new park covering part of Interstate 95 that would reconnect the Delaware Riverfront with Society Hill and Old town community. This will be accomplished during Parker's first term.

6. Inflation and housing

Finally, one of the bigger issues in the last presidential election was the housing affordability crisis. The crisis in Philadelphia is slightly milder than in some other major cities, but it's still real.

Yet the city somehow got lucky unintentionally. Because 2021 is the last year that developers can take full advantage of the city's 10-year tax break for new construction, a record number of building permits were issued that year.

In 2022, the number of building permits plummeted to 2013 levels. Still, 2021 permitting has led to a construction boom, especially residential construction, that could keep home prices lower than they otherwise would be. We expect this trend to continue into 2025, even if the number of new licenses declines even more.