In this weekend's divisional round of the NFL playoffs, the two quarterbacks are in very similar positions. Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills and Lamar Jackson of the Baltimore Ravens are the leading candidates for MVP this season.
Both signal-callers are seeking their first Super Bowl appearance as neither can get past the Kansas City Chiefs' Patrick Mahomes. They're also dual threats: Jackson leads all quarterbacks with 915 yards rushing this year. Allen ranked fifth with 531 points.
The two games on Sunday are arguably the biggest games of the weekend, as the Chiefs also host the Houston Texans, Detroit Lions and Washington Commanders on Saturday. Sunday’s other game is between the Philadelphia Eagles and Los Angeles Rams.
NBC News' Rohan Nadkarni and Andrew Grief and NBC Sports' Patrick Daugherty break down the stories from every angle plot.
Nadkarni: I feel very confident in saying that Jackson is the MVP and it's not a particularly difficult decision. That's not to say things aren't over yet, or that Allen doesn't have a good case. Meanwhile, Jackson had more passing yards, a higher completion percentage, more passing touchdowns, fewer interceptions, more rushing yards, and more total touchdowns. The Bills' great record doesn't matter to me because the AFC East isn't very good. While Derrick Henry has been a blessing to the Ravens' backfield, not every quarterback who plays with him can put up Lamar's numbers.
Greif: I think this is a real tough call, and I have to admit that the emergence of running back Henry makes Jackson's job easier. However, to me, Jackson accomplished something that no other MVP candidate has been able to do - drastically improve on an already elite skill set. Jackson, a two-time MVP, looks like a completely different passer this season. His passing percentage was 8 percentage points higher than his career average; he threw a career-high number of passes but threw a career-low four interceptions, and even then, those interceptions were not returnable. Because of poor passing or decisions by Jackson.
Doherty: This is Jackson. I sympathize with the somewhat crazy idea of Jackson ending up with a third MVP and Allen with zero, but just like players can only play in front of them, voters can only vote in front of them this season. Jackson has somehow reached his highest statistical heights yet this season, reaching ridiculous levels of efficiency while, you know, leading the league with 47 touchdowns. The Ravens average 6.85 yards per game, ranking second in NFL history.
The MVPs and "fairness" Jackson won in the past don't matter. Is he the best player? His statistics were impeccable, and an extra regular-season win for the Bills wasn't enough to swing the argument in Allen's favor, especially since Jackson's Ravens brutally beat the Bills in their head-to-head matchups. Despite their MVP disparity, you could still argue that Allen had the better career. You can't argue who had the better season.
Greif: Rams. Judging by the naked eye and the stats, their defense could struggle. The team started playing just days after wildfires ravaged Los Angeles, not far from where the team practices. Instead, their pressure and focus completely destroyed Minnesota. Deny coach Sean McVay a playoff opportunity at your own peril.
Doherty: Rams. You could argue whether the Rams' wild-card roughhousing against the Vikings is more indicative of a winner or a loser. What's indisputable is that this is another playoff game and McVay looks like the most prepared coach on Bill Belichick's side. McVay continually exploited the Vikings' weaknesses while playing to his own strengths, taking an approach that every coach espouses but rarely implements: one game at a time. While the Rams racked up win after win, the Vikings were out of control and McVay's superb game planning skills were helpless. This is far from McVay's best lineup. It was also the first time he was without Aaron Donald. It still proves it deserves the respect of "any given Sunday" thanks to its wealth of experience and unparalleled preparation.
Nadkarni: I picked the Rams to beat the Vikings in this area last week, but even so, I'm still in awe of how they performed in the wild-card round. Los Angeles dominated on both ends of the floor. For me, watching the Rams defensive line take on the Eagles offensive line is a divisional round matchup. Los Angeles hasn't been particularly good in terms of pass rush win percentage this season, but its defensive line has put pressure on Sam Darnold even while rushing the ball just four times. If the Rams can get out to an early lead and make Jalen uncomfortable in the pocket, this game will be a lot more interesting.
Doherty: Rams. The Eagles forced four turnovers against the Packers but still only won 22-10. The game only scored one run in the first half of the fourth quarter. It's been the same story for months: dominant defense, questionable offense. That’s not good news for McVay leading an opportunistic Rams team to Philadelphia.
The Eagles took advantage of Jordan Love's inexperience and the Packers' nerves. Compared to Los Angeles, that wouldn't be an option. When the Eagles offense is hot, the Rams don't have the ability to win a shootout. We saw this in Philadelphia's 37-20 win in Week 12. However, when Jalen is injured, defenses can focus all their attention on Saquon Barkley, and that can quickly change. If the Eagles quarterback completes the day with 121 yards on 13 more carries, McVay's Rams will be in position to pull off their second straight upset.
Nadkarni: Picking the Bills — a home underdog — feels like cheating. So I'm going to argue on behalf of the Houston Texans. See, the Texans didn't wow anyone in the wild-card round when they won a weird game against the Los Angeles Chargers. But Houston's defense is absolutely ferocious, and both the defensive line and the secondary can wreak havoc on the opponent's offense. Several quarterbacks had terrible performances against the Texans this year. Even though C.J. Stroud had a mediocre sophomore year, he still proved to be a game-changer at the position. Add in the Chiefs' long layoff for the season and their own offensive slump, and I'm expecting at least a tight game due to Houston's defense.
Greif: The Bills have been underdogs for a while this week, but as a team that's 8-0 at home and has beaten the No. 1 seed in every conference, they don't feel like they're at a disadvantage against Baltimore, though. The Ravens have beaten Buffalo once this season.
Nadkarni: If you wrote a storyline, would it be underrated? I'll be focusing on the fourth down attempt between the Lions and Commanders, though, as I believe both teams' aggressiveness will play a big role on Saturday. Washington battled on fourth down five times against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and Detroit has been a fourth-down aggressor since Dan Campbell took over in 2021. Will either coach blink in the big moments? Could the game be based on a failed fourth down? It will be a game within a game when these teams face off, and it should add quite a bit of drama.
Greif: When Houston faces Kansas City's Patrick Mahomes, will its defense make life miserable for another top quarterback? This season, the Texans' scheme has resulted in Buffalo's Allen posting a career-worst completion percentage, Detroit's Jared Goff throwing five interceptions and Miami's Tua Tagovailoa Ya threw three interceptions and lost a fumble. The latest data point comes from Houston's wild-card playoff win against the Chargers last week, when Justin Herbert was intercepted four times — the same Herbert who had been intercepted in the previous 17 games. 3 times.
Doherty: You might think that the two-time defending Super Bowl champions, starting their quest for a third straight title with a 15-2 home advantage, would be the storyline in the divisional round. Alas, the Chiefs find themselves well behind the "Game of the Century" between the Bills and Ravens, and the Lions' chances of competing for the first Super Bowl title in franchise history. So I ask: After an unconvincing 2024, can the Chiefs still win convincingly?
Because let's face it: The Chiefs are going to win. The only question is whether they will do so in a way that truly makes them an AFC Championship Game favorite. You can rely on your "championship pedigree" when you beat the Chargers and Steelers in the regular season. The same goes for the Texans in the divisional round. But does Baltimore or Buffalo have a Lamar Hunt Trophy? We need to see some evidence this Saturday that this is possible.