A lesson in the newsletter for any Prime Minister: When asked if you want a term, try to express some enthusiasm for potential clients.
At the end of his first term, David Cameron told reporters that he would not be in third place, and he accidentally fired the starting gun to fight for leadership among his potential successors. Keir Starmer fell into the same trap this month when he was asked whether he would fight the next election. He said, "You are ahead of me."
This ambiguous reaction sparked such crazy speculation that the Prime Minister quickly issued another statement: "Of course, I will stand in the next election. I kept saying that this is a ten-year national renewal that I intend to lead." But the damage has already caused it. Starmer's ambivalence has sparked doubts that he has not completely decided whether to seek reelection by 2029.
Labour MPs’ deep dissatisfaction with the direction and performance of the government, even Steamer’s most loyal supporters, spread some heat and put his future into question. Congress’s dissatisfaction is more than any other problem crystallizes in the government’s £5 billion welfare cuts, especially in the cuts to support people with disabilities. Nearly 200 Labor MPs are said to have opposed them, expected to be ahead of austerity vote in June.
Critics on the left side of the Labor Party are becoming increasingly vocal. Former cabinet minister Louise Haigh called for a wealth tax and warned of the tilt to the right. John McDonnell, who is independent this week, urged the grassroots of labor to face challenges to Starmer, saying the party is at risk.
In the mainstream of the parliamentary Labor Party (PLP), many MPs are upset, but they also agree on one thing - Starmer is safe as long as he wants. One said: "Labor does not make a strategy." Another Labour MP said: "Kyle is totally safe" because despite "general dissatisfaction, the causes of dissatisfaction are completely dispersed". Some MPs believe that the government needs to make progress on the economic left and in its rhetoric. Others hope for greater crackdown on irregular migration; those in rural areas were injured by farm tax changes; and another group believed the problem was Downing Street's actions.
"People return their problems from locals," a government source said. "Depending on whether they lose to the Liberal Democrats, the Greens or are struggling with reform, they come back with some different inquiries that they think they think can solve the problem."
Although there are less than a year of victory, the breadth and depth of dissatisfaction are significant, but there are many factors behind it. Starmer's popularity plummeted at a historic pace, and the fact that members of Congress profits are so slim means they feel personally. So far, the appointment of the front desk has led some to conclude that they have little chance of promotion. "Incumbent MPs feel super locked. Some new immigrants still feel relatively good about their process." A tough spending review brings more pain, and in-depth layoffs are expected to be carried out in unprotected departments such as education. "This won't improve mood," a government source said.
Against this heat backdrop, it is no surprise that ambitious cabinet ministers will evaluate their choices. The incident sparked speculation about Starmer's location - and reopened an old crack - a leak from a memo written by Angela Rayner, illuminating her alternative tax proposal to Rachel Reeves. Despite her denial, Rayner was widely blamed for the leak - especially because it improved her place in the party. One MP said: "That means she can say, 'Remember that difficulty? I left a mark on the beach.' Another source said: "The PLP realized she was at least making a case for the sake of at least, even if she didn't succeed. ”
Over the past few months, Rayner has been promoting the sympathetic ears of MPs for tea and lunch. Telecommunications and Health Minister Wes Streeting is also a perennial theme that leaders speculate and has cadres of parliamentary supporters. "It's really out of place to say that anyone other than Angela Rayner can be the next Labour leader," said one of the people. "But Wes is the only one at the moment - admittedly, a lot of cash can help them say 'Oh, look, delivery'." Some MPs didn't believe it. "What does Weis want to be? What does he want this country to look like? I don't know the answer to this question - I just know he wants to be PM."
The next few weeks are key to the Starmer administration. The June 11 spending review will be massive for Reeves, whose move as prime minister has weakened her popularity within the party. The vote on welfare cuts is now expected to take place in late June, with the government's data plan passing the bill through all its commons phases before summer vacations. Some around Starmer are pushing for a cabinet reshuffle before the break for constituents in late July to give ministers time to sleep on the fall budget and party meetings.
Action has been taken to ensure that the party has faithful representation at Liverpool's annual gatherings and that the awkward motion will be as far away as possible from the meeting. "The reason why Keir was able to change the party was because he exercised excellent grip on the candidate process. This micro-grip continues to make himself work," said a Labor MP.
"It's been a very important few weeks and there are many obstacles to overcome, but in some cases these are relatively smooth, the benefits are completed, and actually going to look good in the summer," a government source said. If the situation does turn around, the economic situation indicates that progressive MPs will start to feel bigger. One said: "In Parliament, things are still very early, and the comfort of people is that living standards are going in the right direction."