Karol Nawrocki Win win strikes Poland's EU agenda

Poland's newly elected president, Karol Nawrocki, is expected to block Donald Tusk's pro-EU reform agenda and provide new impetus to right-wing populists across the continent.

In Sunday's narrow victory, Nawrocki, a historian and political newcomer who represents the Nationalist Law and Justice (PIS) party, defeated Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski, a candidate supported by Tusk's Central Right-Wing Citizen Coalition, with a voting margin of less than 2%.

Navaroki's victory is likely to exacerbate tensions between the president and the government and conduct a judicial overhaul, which Tusk promised in 2023 in exchange for Brussels to release billions of EU funds that the EU has been struggling during its reign with the former Biss government.

Nawrocki, an amateur boxer and confident football player from Gdańsk, never served in the elected office, which is more aggressive than outgoing president Andrzej Duda, who often uses his veto to block tusk's bills.

“For ivory, he would be worse than Duda,” said Adam Leszczyński, director of the Gabriel Narutovic Institute for Political Thought.

“His view is even more extreme, and he was dissatisfied with a lot of dissatisfaction after he was really beaten by Ivory and his allies during the campaign.”

Nawrocki's victory object was a major defeat, whose victory was praised by many less than two years ago as a breakthrough that would restore Warsaw's position in the EU since World War II when Russia launched its biggest armed conflict on European land.

But the presidential campaign reveals how Tusk’s Premier League failed to publish papers on the divisions of highly polarized societies, as radical candidates at both ends of the political spectrum performed well in the first round, especially the recognition of young voters.

Polish votes are also a rare victory for foreign magazine movements after right-wing politicians imitated U.S. President Donald Trump was defeated in elections in Canada, Australia and more recently Romania. It was ahead of other major votes in Central Europe, with European-suspected billionaire Andrej Babiš hopes to be promoted to Czech Prime Minister this fall, as well as Hungary’s longest-serving prime minister Viktor Orbán, who is both Trump and Russia’s ally and is seeking a new choice next year.

"You now have another leader who is determined to ruin many things," Leschisky said. "Nawrocki has the Orbán mindset, but has more aggressiveness and less (negotiation) skills."

Although Nawrocki only briefly met with Trump in the election advancement, some senior U.S. presidential officials were sent to Poland last week for a conservative political action meeting.

75-year-old PIS founder and long-standing Tusk nemesis, Handpical Karol Nawrocki ©AFP via Getty Images

U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem recognized Nawrocki at the conference, calling on the Poles to "election the right leader" and described his rival Trzaskowski as "absolute train wreck."

"You will be the leader in reinstating Europe's conservative values," Noam said.

Sunday's result was also a personal victory for Jarosław Kaczyński.

Piotr Buras, director of the European Foreign Relations Commission Warsaw, said Nawrocki would offer "a more radical and uncompromising presidency than Duda's president, which could lead to a more far-right government."

"The results on Sunday show that "the far-right, anti-EU, pro-Trump forces are more persistent and more entrenched than many observers," said Matt Dallek, a political historian at George Washington University. ”

“This struggle has brought liberal internationalists against pro-Trump, pro-European populists are joining, and Poland is one of the most important battlefields in the world’s leading democracies.”

Nawrocki gained momentum after a deal with Sławomir Mentzen of the far-right Federalist Party, who won nearly 15% of the vote in the first round. Their agreement includes a commitment to opposing tax increases and protecting gun ownership, a priority aimed at calling on the federal liberal base.

Nawrocki's victory came to a victory, despite criticism of a series of personal scandals and alleged links to the criminals, but he denied the charges. Katski said Sunday that his candidate successfully navigated the “Niagara lies.”

By contrast, former government minister and European Parliament member Trzaskowski is seen as an experienced candidate who barely lost to Duda in the 2020 presidential election.

But Trzaskowski struggled to escape the shadow of Tusk, especially after the government failed to implement the promised reforms, including reversing nearly all bans on abortion introduced under the PIS, partly due to differences within the Tusk coalition, which included some socially conservative legislators.

Tusk acknowledged the shortcomings of his administration and sent out a rare apology at his last rally in Warsaw a week before the outbreak - a gesture analyst said it was too late.

Throughout the campaign, polls showed Trzaskowski's lead, but Nawrocki caught up with his competitors, narrowing the gap to just 2 percentage points in the first round. Sunday's frustrated victory will hold voices instigating parliamentary elections within PIS and may create new tensions within Tusk's clumsy dominance coalition.

Tusk ruled out snapshot elections before runoff. But, Dorota Piontek, a political scientist at Adam Mickey Vicki University in Poznan, said there could be "a drama of early elections, as well as the takeover of power by PIS and the federal government, which means a conflict with the EU and a weak conflict with Poland's status".