Judge Aaron is here again. After a season of AL MVP honors, New York Yankees Superstar has made the best start of his career, hitting .412 and has won 4.0 wars in the quarter of the 2025 season.
Can you tell this? Will he get his own AL record on home runs? Who can stop him from winning the Triple Crown or repeat as a consistent MVP?
We did/settled times based on the judge's ridiculous pace and asked our Major League Baseball experts to predict his otherworldly season would start from here.
Jorge Castillo: Below. Since 2010, a player has played at least 0.350 throughout the season: Luis Arraez's contact rate is so extreme first that he compares with Tony Gwynn. Since Joe Mauer in 2009, no player has completed a .360 or higher season. In short, it is very difficult to maintain such a high average today than ever before.
The judge's .481 BABIP is significantly higher than his career.344 into his career this season, which strongly suggests that the department's return is coming. For a 6-foot-7 player, winning the batting championship will be a remarkable achievement.
Bradford Doolittle: Below. All in all, the judge has an XBA of .340 since changing his batting stance last season. By month, he twice exceeded .362 - current month and last May - twice. He mostly exceeds 0.300 per month, but as low as .277. Therefore, .362 is too high, but .340 is a realistic goal, and it is very amazing in itself.
Jeff Passan: Below. His current shooting percentage is .410-ball average of 0.481. The judge's lifetime BABIP is .351. Even if he hit a 0.400 hit rate in the game, a lot of strikeouts - his punches in 20.9% of the intraday appearances seriously limit anyone's ability to average up to 0.360. The batsman's top k speed exceeds .360 was Andres Galarraga, at 14.4% (when he reached .370 in the Rockies in 1993). It is foolish to suspect that a judge can do anything, but the numbers simply don't support it is reality.
David Schoenfield: Below. All the reasons Jeff outlined. The best chance of a judge reaching .360 is to draw a lot of walks, thus making each hit rate higher, but he walks less frequently than last season. Then, in this era, hit such a high difficulty. Not counting in the short season of 2020, the last right-handed batsman was .363 at Magglio Ordonez, and the 2007 Tigers were .271 in 2007, which was about 30 points higher than the average this year.
Castillo: Exceed. At this time about a year ago, the judge had just begun his long five-month storm, and April was slow, and he still earned the highest OPS+ since the 2004 season’s ridiculous 2004 season (263). The offensive production situation last season (slightly declined) has made the judge's continued excellence even more exciting. This situation is necessary when evaluating his OPS+ prospects. The judge will have to go through a massive decline to not lose last season's figures.
Doolittle: Exceed. It will approach, but I will take over. His expected statistics are higher than the OPS+ he completed in 2024, and those numbers repeat that level at least. I can't see league-level peaks, which is important in OPS+ calculations. The higher the league level, the more air must appear from the RAW OPS numbers. I think he will land around 230.
They passed: Exceed. This is the best version of the judge of his outstanding 10-year career. He played less harder than ever and continued to hit the ball with typical speed and fierce attitude. And, because the sport's offense is so weak, numbers like OPS+ (measured by players' numbers compared to the league average) are mature.
Schoenfield: Exceed. Last year, when he got .754 OPS on April OPS and still ended with 225 OPS+, he started slowly. This version of the judge looks frustrated. Even though he only had one home run in 20 games in April, he managed to hit .425/.528/.546 to keep the high.
Castillo: Exceed. Between the cold temperatures and the constant rainfall, the Yankees encountered some painful weather early on. It's only a matter of time before the weather gets warmer. The judge will take advantage of it.
Doolittle: Exceed. In fact, as his flying balls dwindled, he hit a lot more than usual. This may be an evolutionary approach, but I still hope this allocation will be closer to his career norms - which means more fly balls. The judge's flying ball tends to leave the court, so I think he'll hit 60 again.
They passed: Exceed. The judge hasn't done one of his home run jags yet - he hit only one in 20 games in April - when that happens, it will put him at a 62-shot position in 2022.
Schoenfield: Not included in June and July 2023, when he hurt his toes and competed in only five games, the judge averaged 10 home runs a month - half of May is still going. From May to June to September, we gave him five more home runs and we got 59.
Castillo: Exceed. He is at the pace of smashing 11.2. If he stays healthy, he will threaten to surpass the bonds in the 2004 11.9 season and enter the Big Ten of All-time in the category.
Doolittle: Exceed. On baseball quotes (not the war numbers quoted here), his personal winning rate (based on above-average wins) was .568; last year it was 0.554, so there was a buffer there against some regression. In the game to the right, only the judge's field plus/subtraction indicators can be raised, at least offsetting his possible blow to position value. He just needs to stay healthy and will win at least 12 wins.
They passed: Exceed. It's a tough one because of the whimsical nature of single-year defense and basic indicators. The judge was considered a below-average defender last season, slightly below-average. So far this year, he is an average defender and poor baseman.
The offense will always be there. The problem is that marginal elements can win those differentiated wars. By the way, this will be his third season, in the Four Years Civil War 11 or higher. The only players who did this were Babe Ruth and Barry Bonds.
Schoenfield: He is striving for nearly 14 wars. We just said he seemed moisture resistant. More than 11.2 wars.
Castillo: Exceed. See above: If the judge stays healthy, he will summarize one of the greatest seasons of all time with a triple crown. The batting average is the highest challenge, and the total number of RBI always depends on the teammates' base. But he has maintained a nearly 50-point lead in batting average competition, and the Yankees' offense is good enough to get a consistent RBI chance.
Doolittle: As long as the team doesn’t start making unwise advice, I will take over the peak judge whenever someone is at the base, and even winning the triple crown is a very difficult thing. I just think this is where the judge was in his career, a place that few people have been in the history of the sport.
They passed: Below. He will lead the home run. But the batting average element is frightening – so far, the judge’s career high is .322 – and the RBI is so dependent on the lineup. If the judge finds himself in 3 holes more often, the element becomes uncautionary, but the combination of the two categories is not a stone cold lock that makes it a cautious pessimistic bet. If anyone wants to win the triple crown, it is the judge.
Schoenfield: I will go with the Triple Crown. He may not drive at the age of 144 as he did last year, with Juan Soto hitting in front of him, but these Yankees scored higher than last year's Yankees, so he should have enough RBI opportunities.
Castillo: Below. This does not mean there are no worthwhile players in AL. Bobby Witt Jr. Most years, they will be one of several legal early MVP contenders. But the judge is so good. He is above his peers. What is lost is his award.
Doolittle: Below. But if I choose a team from scratch, I still take Bobby Witt Jr., you can't convince me. However, if the judge was not injured, he would be a unanimous choice.
They passed: Below. If the judge stays healthy, he will be the consistent MVP. He's much better than everyone else in AL - considering that Witt is in the league as well.
Schoenfield: Below. Even when Shohei Ohtani was outstanding in both directions in 2022, the judge still received 28 of 30 votes. Ohtani is now in the NL.