Rome-- After forging an unexpectedly warm relationship with U.S. President Joe Biden, Italy's right-wing Prime Minister Giorgio Meloni is poised to capitalize on a more natural alliance with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, making her the centerpiece between the United States and Europe key interlocutor.
Meloni met with Trump at his Mar-a-Lago resort just weeks before his inauguration, a visit she said "exceeded expectations." The trip "is an opportunity to affirm a relationship that promises to be very strong," she said, adding diplomatically, "I don't know if I can say it's an honor."
She told reporters this month that the strong transatlantic relationship between the two conservative governments "creates added value not only for Italy but for Europe as a whole".
It remains to be seen who the relationship benefits, with some observers suggesting Meloni will either become Trump's whisperer and influence or become Europe's Trojan horse - for Trump's purposes.
"It's clear that if Trump is looking for someone to call Europe if needed, Meloni is that person," said Franco Pavoncello, professor of political science and president of John Cabot University in Rome . "In Europe, she is surrounded by a desert."
Known for its rotating governments that rarely complete a full parliamentary term, Italy is in the unusual position of having the most stable government among its major European and G7 allies, while Germany, France and even Canada are struggling struggle.
Meloni has led her once-marginal post-fascist party from the far right to more mainstream positions, particularly on foreign policy. She became a major European politician after her far-right Brotherhood of Italy party performed well in EU elections last June.
The 48-year-old Italian leader traveled to Florida as her government fights to get Iran to release an Italian journalist arrested in mid-December. Journalist Cecilia Sala was released within days of her return in what Meloni described as a "diplomatic triangle" between the United States, Italy and Iran. Four days later, Italy released an Iranian citizen detained on a U.S. warrant.
While Meloni denies Trump's direct involvement in the deal, her defense secretary said Meloni's presence at his side bolstered her "credibility" at a critical moment.
From an ideological perspective, Meloni is a natural ally for the incoming U.S. president. She has worked to tackle migration, seeking deals with African countries to stop migrants leaving and determined to vet male asylum seekers at two centers established by Italy in Albania. Her government has also adopted conservative family policies, including a ban on surrogacy, and taken actions aimed at curbing abortion.
The personal chemistry between Trump and Meloni is also evident, bolstering her chances of becoming Trump's preferred leader in Europe. On December 7, the two had a lively discussion during the celebrations for the reopening of Notre Dame Cathedral in Paris and began their visit to Mar-a-Lago. Meloni also has a well-documented friendship with Elon Musk, a key Trump adviser.
The Italian prime minister is one of the very few world leaders likely to attend Trump's inauguration on January 20, confirming close ties with the US government.
Even more surprising is Meloni's strong relationship with Biden, who initially viewed Meloni's rise to power as a harbinger of a rightward shift in global politics. But Biden's support for Ukraine's fight against Russia's aggressive incursion and her openness to Italy withdrawing from China's infrastructure-building Belt and Road Initiative have assuaged her ideological concerns.
The two met in Washington at least twice, highly unusual for an Italian leader who has been in power for just two years. Biden even plans to visit Italy this month for his final overseas trip as president. However, that trip was canceled at the last minute so that Biden could remain in Washington to oversee the federal response to the wildfires that devastated Los Angeles.
Instead, Biden and Meloni spoke by phone last Friday. The White House said Biden thanked Meloni for Italy's support for Ukraine and the country's leadership role in the G7, NATO and the European Union.
Meloni's pro-Atlantic stance has ensured her relationship with Biden, but it could pose a challenge to the Trump relationship. Trump is pushing NATO allies to increase their spending to 5% of national output, and Italy is one of eight members with defense spending below the 2% target.
Mario Delpero, an expert on transatlantic relations and professor of international history at Sciences Po in Paris, said: “On Ukraine, the Trump administration will try to find ways to talk to Russia to reach a solution and may demand more action from Europe. "This will put Italy in a difficult position."
Meloni has been pressed to comment on Trump's recent expansionist rhetoric, telling reporters that his comments about annexing Greenland, Canada and Panama were a deterrent and a "powerful message to other global powers." , rather than hostilities”.
The Italian economy will also be challenged by Trump's pledge to impose export tariffs, with a 10% tariff potentially costing Italy's export-driven economy up to $7 billion, according to a study by Prometeia risk analysis company. Italy's trade surplus with the United States is 42 billion euros, making it its second largest export partner after Germany.
Analysts believe that the most important thing is that Meloni remains a true nationalist who will protect Italy's interests first.
This could work to Europe's advantage, for example in the event of a trade tariff war or a conflict over defense spending. But in the long term, this could undermine European unity.
It is reported that a deal has been reached with Musk's SpaceX to provide communication services to Italian agencies through Starlink technology, which may disrupt the Iris2 orbital constellation of 290 satellites, which is composed of Italian defense contractors. European consortium led by Leonardo.
“It’s naive to think that she will be able to defend EU interests and that she is more likely to be Trump’s Trojan horse into Europe,” said Nathalie Tocci, director of the Institute of International Affairs in Rome. “When she faces When given a hard choice, she always chooses to be skeptical of the euro because it is her true heartbeat.”
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Aamer Madhani in Washington, D.C., contributed.