US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas is expected to take effect on January 19, 2025. Although Israel's cabinet postponed a vote to approve the complex deal until January 17, Blinken said he was "very confident in the progress of this matter."

The United States, Qatar and Egypt helped broker the deal, after previous talks experienced multiple starts and stops in 2024. Representatives of the Biden administration and President-elect Donald Trump have worked together to advance the deal, with both leaders applauding the expected return of an estimated 100 Israeli hostages, living and dead, and a complete ceasefire in the Gaza Strip.

The Conversation’s politics and society editor Amy Lieberman spoke with Gregory F. Treverton, who served as chairman of the National Intelligence Council during the Obama administration, to find out Better understand the implications for the United States of America's role in the agreement. influence in the Middle East.

What, if anything, is unusual about the U.S. role in this deal?

So far, the United States has not exerted much influence in efforts to end the conflict. One reason is that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appears unwilling to listen to U.S. advice. What’s striking now is that some combination of Donald Trump’s rise to power and Joe Biden’s fall from power has had an impact — and may have made Netanyahu more willing to take a political risk with his governing coalition and sign the protocol.

This is more or less the same deal proposed by the United States in May 2024. So it's hard to know whether Trump has changed his tune because of past threats to punish Hamas and pressure Netanyahu, or whether Hamas feels it has been influenced. Weakened and lacking external support from weakened allies such as Iran. or a combination of these factors.

We also know there were some last-minute hiccups with the deal, so it's not over yet. But there is progress and hope, and it reflects the massive efforts of the Biden administration over the past 15 months.

The proposed transaction is divided into three phases and will last over four months. Just because it starts doesn't mean it will end. The agreed-upon end is very, very vague, with a reconstituted Palestinian Authority taking over Gaza — something Netanyahu says he does not want.

The deal was largely brokered by the United States, Egypt and Qatar. Beyond political pressure from these countries, there has been no serious international oversight of the agreement.

How do you see the Trump and Biden teams working together on this?

This is not unprecedented. Typically, there is a lot of cooperation and joint efforts during normal transitions between administrations.

Unusually, this is a collaboration you might not expect given the animosity between Trump and Biden and his team. Biden said his administration and the Trump team have been "speaking as a team." In this sense, it is a recent bright spot in American politics and a return to a more normal pattern of American foreign policy, with cooperation between the outgoing and incoming administrations.

It was unusual for Trump's designated Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, to meet Netanyahu alone in January and reportedly influenced Netanyahu's decision to accept a deal he had previously rejected. Many envoys require Senate confirmation, although they can serve in the role temporarily without Senate confirmation. They also require security clearance, which limits some of what they can do.

What else is noteworthy about the U.S. role in the deal?

Surprisingly, Biden appears to have little influence over Netanyahu, despite his efforts. This will be politically very difficult for Biden. He wants a ceasefire, but he also wants to end the suffering in Gaza and doesn't want to look like he's giving Israel a blank check to do whatever it wants.

In the process, the United States has been held partially responsible for the deaths of tens of thousands of Palestinians, which some have called a genocide. This has done a lot of damage to America's global reputation, and it will take some time to repair it.

Trump is completely unpredictable. He may continue to pressure Netanyahu, or he may decide that Netanyahu can do whatever he wants.

What does this agreement tell us about America’s position in the Middle East?

In some ways, I think this is a sign that U.S. influence in the Middle East is waning. On the other hand, the geopolitics of conflicts and political changes in other regions, such as the collapse of the Assad government in Syria and the weakening of Hezbollah and Iran in the past more than a year, have given Israel certain opportunities. Therefore, the United States also includes the continuation of the Abraham Accords, It was a deal the Trump administration helped negotiate in 2020 to normalize relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel.

The Saudis have made it clear that they will not make a deal with Israel without designating a state or something for the Palestinians. The fact may be that the current agreement, if implemented, would provide the Palestinians with sufficient conditions for Saudi Arabia to reach an agreement with Israel as well.